World Perspectives

Dissecting the Retail Sales Report

Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November; this was slightly higher than the consensus expectations. There are a few nuances to consider, however. First, the Thanksgiving holiday was late this year. The holiday is on the fourth Thursday of the month. Given the way the calendar played out in 2024, and this being a leap year with an extra day in February, Thanksgiving was on 28 November – the latest possible date. Last year it was on 23 November and in 2022 was on 24 November. With Thanksgiving being late this year, so was Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the kickoff of the Christmas shopping season. Thus, there were fewer Christmas sale shopping days in November 2024 than in the past two years. For spending to increase over last year is a sign...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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