Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008 was produced at the height of the food shortage scare. Low prices during the first part of this century had caused surplus wheat stocks to fall 30 percent and maize carryover to drop 44 percent. Underestimating the ability of agricultural production to rebound, headlines blared that it could not keep up with predicted population growth and people would grow hungry. The OECD FAO baseline report asked, “Can agriculture meet the growing demand fo...

TAGS – Feed Grains, Wheat, Australia, Black Sea, Europe, Middle East & Africa, North America