World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity

Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the greatest error (mispricing) relative to predicted values. Simultaneously, our work attempts to combine this mispricing with identification of markets that have the greatest odds for a large move in prices. This combination of discovering large, anticipated forecast errors with large predicted volatility have proven successful in back testing in identifying speculative trade and key risk management opportunities.  WPI’s methods for this analysis...

Related Articles
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle

Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...

livestock

The Strange Effects of Screwworm

For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle

Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...

livestock

The Strange Effects of Screwworm

For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...

Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added

Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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