World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Long-Term Forecast Challenges

USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist issues annually a long-term projection of its expectations for the major crops. Its latest forecast was released today. The advantage to such projections is that their accuracy is highly dubious and so the recriminations are few, at the same time the effort at accuracy should improve over time based on more data points and refinements to the algorithms.   Looking at the forecast for ending stocks for corn, wheat, and soybeans in MY 2020/21, the estimate for corn is more volatile over time than those made for wheat and soybeans. Estimates for 2020/21 made back in 2013 were likely colored by the supply shortages just experienced in 2009, whereas estimates made in 2018 and 2019 were seen th...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week

With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26.  It was the fifth...

North Dakota and Glyphosate

Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week

With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26.  It was the fifth...

North Dakota and Glyphosate

Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...

soy-oilseeds

U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook

U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...

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From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

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