One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on display this afternoon as the CBOT finished lower despite early morning gains. Demand has thinned in recent days amid the modest CBOT rally, and that left the market with pressure today. One of the day’s features was bear spreading in soybeans as Chinese demand is increasingly focused on new crop positions. With Brazil remaining competitive against U.S. offers, Chinese buyers have secured most (80 percent or more) of their summer crushing needs from South America. Chinese crushers are still open for August/September positions, where the U.S. is competitive. However, without str...
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
Key Takeaways: Weather conditions in Europe have continued to deteriorate following both the EU MARS’ latest balance sheet update and the August WASDE, leaving “official” estimates lagging behind the reality observed on the ground. WPI’s models anticipate a 4 perc...
Key Takeaways: With cattle supplies historically tight and packer margins deeply negative, beef processors are reducing excess slaughter capacity, with decisions over which plants to close driven by cattle availability, operating efficiency, and the ability to maintain high utilization rates...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.