World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Overplayed Then Corrected

The NASS stocks report initially felt like a bomb had dropped but after the trade assessed the situation with a clearer head, markets came back off their lows. The whole situation should have been expected given lots of coverage of how historically bad the trade is at estimating in advance the details of this specific USDA report. One analyst called it the “volatility report” and a trader declared that the bull market got gored, but in the end, there were just modest changes. The larger change made by NASS was increasing soybean stocks by 46 percent above the average trade guess, but stocks are still extraordinarily tight. The smaller reduction in wheat stocks and small increase in corn stocks were neutral. Volume was extraordi...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest is virtually complete, with only isolated fields still being collected. Final output is expected to exceed 50 MMT. Attention now shifts to the 2025/26 crop, where planted area is projected at 7.8 million hectares — surpassed only by the 20...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest is virtually complete, with only isolated fields still being collected. Final output is expected to exceed 50 MMT. Attention now shifts to the 2025/26 crop, where planted area is projected at 7.8 million hectares — surpassed only by the 20...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: USDA Surprises; Market Marches Its Own Beat

While there was some red flashing early in today’s trading session, by the close all major grain and oilseed contracts were in the green. Ahead of USDA’s September WASDE report, the trade was focused on yield cuts, which had also been the principal output of various private sector c...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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