Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 9.2 percent last week, bringing the total harvest to 82 percent of the planted area. The harvest is 12 percent behind last year’s pace, but yields are above trendline, so large volumes are being originated daily. Farmer selling has increased considerable in the past few weeks and exporters are buying an average of 0.5 MMT each week. Exporters secured 0.8 MMT in the week ending 14 July, however, and 1 MMT for the week ending 21 July. There are no official numbers yet, but WPI expects another week of above-average origination for the last week of July. Farmers are harvesting large volumes and they need to keep selling (they sold 70 percent of the expected volume). Prices are st...
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Key Takeaways: The Panama Canal traded at a record $5.3 million for a transit slot this week as line-up times extend to 17 days. The difficulties transiting the Canal are supporting the PNW/Gulf spread. Tanker freight markets remain elevated as the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues. I...
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.