Former trader and now academic Ivo Sarjanovic has a new book entitled, “Commodities as an Asset Class.” He was inspired to write on the topic out of frustration that investment banks were encouraging clients to invest in commodities as a hedge against inflation. Sarjanovic knew from his many years of direct experience in commodities that the advice was overly broad, and dangerously wrong if it was a passive investment in an index fund. Via his own statistical research, Sarjanovic argues agriculture may be the worst hedge since its productivity gains have been faster and the supply can be more quickly changed with one or two crop cycles. Petroleum has a better correlation with inflation than metals/minerals. Notably, he be...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.