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No Mimosas

Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are grown in Sao Paulo and Mineas Gerais, which are east of the south central row crop areas. But this year’s weather at least rhymes across the whole south central part of the country. The shortage will most impact the EU, which is the largest importer of both oranges and orange juice. Amongst the larger importing countries, consumption has been trending lower in the U.S. and China, and is flat in Russia, but Europe and Saudi Arabia are big and g...

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