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No Mimosas

Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are grown in Sao Paulo and Mineas Gerais, which are east of the south central row crop areas. But this year’s weather at least rhymes across the whole south central part of the country. The shortage will most impact the EU, which is the largest importer of both oranges and orange juice. Amongst the larger importing countries, consumption has been trending lower in the U.S. and China, and is flat in Russia, but Europe and Saudi Arabia are big and g...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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