World Perspectives
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Perceived Rice Shortage

Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT, though the latter is in nominal terms. New Delhi is now relaxing its export restrictions. Notably, the price of rice is more correlated to the degree that production matches consumption than it is to the ending stocks available. World rice carryover (blue line in chart below) has been increasing and has been above the historical average going back to 2013. But consumption exceeded production in 2021 and 2022, so price has been rising despite ending...

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CFTC COT Report Analysis

The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...

softs

Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue

The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will likely keep futures and physical prices elevated as the market works to ration demand amid a fourth straight year of weak production from Wes...

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...

softs

Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue

The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will likely keep futures and physical prices elevated as the market works to ration demand amid a fourth straight year of weak production from Wes...

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...

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From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

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