World Perspectives

Policy Roundup

Options Bias CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton blocked Nadex from launching this week its proposed binary options on political events, like the 2012 presidential election. He forced a 90-day review of what he termed "political poker." Actually, political events can have market impacts, thus the policy section of this daily report. Understanding the more likely outcome can help companies better position themselves for its market implications. A political option would certainly deliver more value to its participants than the hundreds of billions of dollars lost in lotteries each year (AKA, the tax on those who can't do math). Groupthink has its share of follies but experience with the Iowa Electronic Market is that political options can outpe...

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Dry bulk freight markets rallied this week buyers extending coverage ahead of China’s Golden Week festival in 1-8 October. The rally came partly from an uptick in cargo demand but mostly from vessel supply disruptions stemming from the U.S. fees against Chinese vessels. This is causing Ch...

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 17 September)

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feed-grains

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Japan–U.S. Trade Deal Implemented

The U.S.-Japan trade deal is now in place. It provides for a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering from Japan. For goods that were subject to tariffs less than 15 percent will now face higher duties at 15 percent, but goods that faced duties of 15 percent or higher will not increase. The tar...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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