World Perspectives

Policy Roundup

Options Bias CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton blocked Nadex from launching this week its proposed binary options on political events, like the 2012 presidential election. He forced a 90-day review of what he termed "political poker." Actually, political events can have market impacts, thus the policy section of this daily report. Understanding the more likely outcome can help companies better position themselves for its market implications. A political option would certainly deliver more value to its participants than the hundreds of billions of dollars lost in lotteries each year (AKA, the tax on those who can't do math). Groupthink has its share of follies but experience with the Iowa Electronic Market is that political options can outpe...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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