The soybean market has defied bearish analytical gravity for the umpteenth year in a row. Each of the past several years has started with projections of big South American crops coupled with big U.S. crops that would exceed the growth in demand from China and build world soybean ending supplies. Some analysts have been touting U.S. soybean ending supplies climbing to as high as 400-500 million bushels (10-12 MMT). That talk was followed by forecasts for soybean prices collapsing all the way back to $7 or $8 per bushel. Those bearish estimates have been missed by very wide margins. It is obvious that this will again be the case in MY 2011/12, and very likely in the new marketing year as well, for a number of reasons:

South American soy...