February is often a time of optimism for world agricultural producers, at least those residing in the Northern Hemisphere. When viewed in February, one to three months before new spring crops are actually planted, production prospects nearly always look rosy: planted area will be large, yields will be big, and production totals will be bountiful. USDA's annual budgetary baseline numbers are perfect examples. Invariably, budget forecasts of government expenditures for the next fiscal year are based on assumptions that minimize spending forecasts for political reasons. Under U.S. farm programs, expenditures decline when crops are large. Thus, it suits the budgetary purposes of any administration for USDA to use big crop production numbers w...