This week’s USDA WASDE and production estimates were not quite as bearish as they might have been for the following reasons:

The corn and soybean yield estimates were not changed, but they could be revised in August based on the current excellent crop ratings coupled with a very good-looking weather forecast through the balance of July. Corn and wheat export forecasts were raised slightly, offsetting larger crop forecasts that resulted from increases in the planted acreage estimates.

Where do we go from here? The direction of the soybean market will continue to be a limiting factor on the grains. The most important change was the 250-million-bushel (6.8 MMT) reduction in the soybean export forecast because of the Chinese tariff...