We often say that uncertainty is the lifeblood of commodity futures markets. The greater its perceived level, the greater is the degree of price volatility. Any economic sector that heavily depends on weather (e.g., the production of agricultural commodities) is guaranteed a relatively high degree of uncertainty and accompanying volatility. Since many of today’s noncommercial managed funds are essentially market momentum followers, they often add to or expand weather-related price volatility. There is always uncertainty pertaining to questions about fundamental supply and demand. In recent years, there have been relatively more questions about demand since supplies were generally deemed to be at least ample and often more than ample...
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
Key Takeaways: E15 expansion would support corn and ethanol demand by increasing domestic biofuel consumption and reducing reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Year-round E15 has gained bipartisan momentum, but the policy remains in legislative limbo as lawmakers continue to negotiate provisions...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.