We’ve been updating our ideas on U.S. wheat production over each of the past few months, and the primary reason for doing this so early in the season is that a severe drought has encased the southern Plains since early last fall. It has not abated and instead worsened. Despite the obvious results of this, market analysts have continued to forecast average or, in some cases, above-average hard red winter wheat yields. 37 percent of the total U.S. winter wheat crop was rated poor to very poor as of last Monday’s report, and 50 percent of the Kansas crop is rated poor to very poor. This week’s Kansas crop tour released a production estimate of 243 million bushels for the state, down from 334 million bushels in 2017, but not...