For some months now, the fertilizer industry has been full of anticipation for the U.S. 2012 spring planting season. The considerations were pretty simple, and so far they are playing out:

Because of very tight old crop (2011/12) supplies for U.S. corn, there would be a need for a very big 2012 corn planting to restock record low inventories. This would drive the big U.S. nitrogen demand; however, Once that crop is in the ground, attention will start shifting to the new crop supplies (2012/13), which may negatively affect intended acres for the next year (spring 2013!) and push down the anticipated nitrogen (refill) demand that comes with summer/fall 2012 and onwards.

Indeed, the U.S. has started planting a record-large corn crop. A...