USDA's annual Outlook Conference is held in late February, and just prior to it each year USDA releases its updated 10-year baseline projections for the agricultural sector. This year's version contains projections through 2022 for agricultural commodities, including production, consumption, trade, commodity and food prices, and farm income. Making 10-year projections about anything as historically variable as agriculture must include a number of underlying assumptions about other highly variable but essential factors, such as macroeconomic influences, government policies, international developments and, of course, weather. Predicting variables that depend on other variables is challenging, to say the least, but USDA and its various agenc...