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Volatility in Pistachios

The U.S. first displaced Iran as the world’s leading producer of pistachios in 2012 and for the past four years it has not even been a contest. Iran’s downfall was in part U.S. trade sanctions, but also its failure to manage water resources and disease problems properly. While the pistachio tree is largely a desert plant, water problems may yet befall the U.S. industry, which is largely based in California. However, another noticeable problem for pistachio production generally is volatile income from year to year since it is a biennial-bearing crop. Turkey has been expanding pistachio production relatively quickly and has surpassed Iran in output in recent years based on an alternating production cycle. Based on FAO data, produ...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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