The news and political talk shows have been abuzz about whether the economy is in a recession, moreover, it has become political, with some Republican politicians and conservative commentators, almost giddy that the GDP contracted two quarters in a row, and some Democrat politicians and liberal commentators arguing that the economy is not in a recession – necessarily now. First, the two quarters of negative GDP is a rule of thumb; when it happens there is almost always a recession. But it is not, as we’ve heard on TV, the “technical” definition of a recession. In 2001, there were three consecutive quarters of negative GDP before the recession was declared. The actual technical definition is maintained by the Bureau...
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 July will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 102.2 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.327 million head. If accurate, that would be the...
Key Takeaways: The situation in the Arab Gulf is little changed this week, which is to say it is a day-by-day – and sometimes hour-by-hour – judgment call as to what is or will happen. There are some vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but transits are a fraction of what they...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.