The news and political talk shows have been abuzz about whether the economy is in a recession, moreover, it has become political, with some Republican politicians and conservative commentators, almost giddy that the GDP contracted two quarters in a row, and some Democrat politicians and liberal commentators arguing that the economy is not in a recession – necessarily now. First, the two quarters of negative GDP is a rule of thumb; when it happens there is almost always a recession. But it is not, as we’ve heard on TV, the “technical” definition of a recession. In 2001, there were three consecutive quarters of negative GDP before the recession was declared. The actual technical definition is maintained by the Bureau...
What You Need to Know Today: USDA cut the 2026 corn yield forecast by 1.6 BPA to 179.6, shaving 141 Mbu off the crop. Corn ending stocks were cut by 91 Mbu to a level that pushed the ending stocks-to-use (ESU) ratio to 10.8 percent. Conversely, USDA raised the soybean yield forecast 0.2 BPA to...
Key Takeaways: Expanding U.S. soybean crushing capacity is strengthening domestic demand, driven largely by growing soyoil consumption from the renewable diesel and biofuels industries. Despite increased domestic processing, substantial quantities of U.S. soybeans are expected to remain availa...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.