Old habits are often hard to break, but bearish fund managers are undoubtedly becoming nervous about their short wheat positions and probably with good reason.To the extent that markets can develop habits, being bearish on the price of wheat is an example. This goes back to 2013 as the world began to produce more wheat than it consumed in the 2013/14 wheat crop year. According to USDA estimates, world wheat stocks totaled 176 MMT at the beginning of that year and reached 183 MMT at its end. They will have grown to about 255 MMT by the end of 2016/17, an increase of 72 MMT during just three annual wheat crop cycles. That is an average annual gain of 24 MMT or very roughly 10 percent.The community of managed money funds that trade in agricult...
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Key Takeaways: Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, and the latest retail sales data indicate that spending remains robust despite inflation. In September, total retail and food service sales rose more than 6 percent year-over-year, with food service spending up 7 percent and...
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
Illuminating the value of technical research
On behalf of a commodity producer organization, WPI evaluated the outputs from a project that featured a $5 million investment into technical research over multiple years. WPI’s team captured the results of this extensive effort and synthesized them for presentation to the organization’s governing board; among the findings uncovered and presented for the first time was the development of genomic traits proven, via rigorous testing, to provide crop yield advantages of 50 percent or more to U.S. farmers in times of drought. Capturing measurable results from long-term efforts can be challenging. Educating clients on the dynamics of success measurement when quantifiable results are not readily available requires deep client-consultant collaboration and an ability to consider both near- and long-term client aspirations with market/policy dynamics – attributes that WPI brings to every consulting engagement.