February is a good month to take stock of where we are and to speculate about trends and events that might help shape price action and direction. The title attached to this analysis is somewhat misleading in that we do not intend to forecast specific price action or price direction. We will leave that to those whose crystal ball is not as cloudy as ours.The two recent weather events with obvious market impact have been the La Nina-related drought that affected Argentina and Southern Brazil and the extreme cold weather across parts of Russia, Ukraine and Northern Europe. The South American drought caught a portion of the corn crop in its vulnerable pollinating stage, probably causing some irrevocable damage. Soybeans in the region were not...