World Perspectives

Whither Trade

Analysts are intensely studying the changes in trade flows and their composition following the reversal from free trade by the Trump Administration, the concerns about supply chains due to COVID, and now the de-risking of the West from China. Supply chains have gotten slightly shorter. Overall global trade volume slowed in 2022 and 2023, though value increased on higher prices, and the WTO expects a uptick in 2024. Falling commodity prices will no doubt be helpful, as will growth in GDP.  Few sectors have experienced the reversal in trade fortunes as U.S. agriculture. The strong dollar ended the previous robust annual growth in exports, at the same time it provided added incentives to imports. The result is that the agricultural trade...

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Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering

Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...

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Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $271.1/short ton, up $0.2 from y...

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Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering

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After rising sharply in 2022, input costs remain stubbornly high yet today. At the same time, the prices received for major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat have fallen by as much as 30 percent over the same period.   In response to these economic headwinds, Congress stepped up thr...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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