Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower
Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn holding onto those gains by the closing bell. For corn futures, the market seemed to be more focused on the USDA’s ending stocks figure...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 14 July)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Changing Energy Landscape
In 2024, the U.S. imported about 17 percent of its domestic energy supply, half of the record share set in 2006, but the lowest share since 1985, according to the Energy Information Agency (EIA). The decline in imports’ share of supply in the previous two decades is attributable to both a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now covering 91 percent of the projected 6.7 million hectares. Regional progress of about 20 points was seen in areas previously delayed by surface wa...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025
Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork demand and reduced slaughter volumes and carcass weights, traders have been wary of the seasonal trend for prices to pull back in Q3 and Q4. WP...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite while Panamax and Supramax markets are higher on improved demand from the Atlantic and the East Coast of South America. Pacific markets have bee...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 July)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed harvesting was helping wheat prices rebound in the south, the Russia’s main export hub. To add fuel to the fire, yields are lower com...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000 MT. The government adds that the wheat received this year is of lower quality due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Yemeni Houthi rebe...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have done an incredible job managing margins this summer and in just three weeks swung from the deepest losses on record to well above breakev...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. The weakness continued into the day session with corn and soybeans turning in the biggest losses for the day as the weather outlook continues...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to minimize price and oversupply pressure on Romania’s domestic markets but disrupts the free trade flows arranged in the EU framework earl...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed little but they did confirm expectations. Weather continues to point toward ample crop supplies. President Trump teased there is a trade de...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday, 4 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our normal report schedule on Monday 7 July...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesday's market activity. The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Feeder Cattle Import Update
As summer demand for beef is upon us, fed cattle hit $233 per cwt yesterday, having moved above $200 per cwt in April on tight supplies. The cattle herd as of 1 January was the smallest in more than 50 years, imports of feeder cattle from Mexico have been suspended due to the New World Screwwor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins finally turned positive last week, the first time packers have made money killing cattle since last October. Margins swung dramatically from a -$131/head loss the prior week to a $15/head gain to close out June. The profits came from the sharp rally in beef prices, a $5/cwt...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day’s action. There were relatively few surprises in the report but minor deviations from expectations helped create support in new crop s...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotiations. Canada is second only to Mexico in terms of trade dependence on the U.S. Many Canadian producers are already hurting from trade sanct...
WPI Wheat Outlook: 2025/26 Prices to Firm After Q1 Weakness
With the June Grain Stocks report now in the rear-view mirror and having offered USDA’s somewhat final (there is always the possibility of revisions) assessment of ending stocks for the 2024/25 crop, WPI offers the following outlook for the U.S. and global wheat markets. We specifically f...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) strategy on pesticides to further “our shared goals of promoting children’s health and ensuring that pesticide regulatory...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and oilseed complex being rather subdued. Funds added just 1,997 contacts (12.8 percent) to their small net short across the ag space last week...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...
Input Costs Forecast to Rise, Led by Fertilizer
After rising sharply in 2022, input costs remain stubbornly high yet today. At the same time, the prices received for major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat have fallen by as much as 30 percent over the same period. In response to these economic headwinds, Congress stepped up thr...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dy bulk markets were mixed this week with the Capesize sector sliding lower as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East pushed buyers to the sidelines. The Panamax and Supramax markets saw enough support from Asian demand to sustain last week’s gains. Seasonally,...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn’t last. It has been a very bearish week, though the declines were much shallower today than in previous days. While soybeans and wheat we...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The numbers were in line with pre-report expectations. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 June was 75.1 million head. This was up slightly from 1 June 2024, and up 1 percent from 1 March 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) mandates release a little less than two weeks ago, which was followed by the Israel-Iran conflict. That conflict drove...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable among the day’s moves were the new contract lows in corn and soymeal and soybeans’ move back below the prices they traded just...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulatory Burdens to Unlock Innovation and Spur New Entry and the meat packing industry was front and center. UC-Berkely Senior Fellow Doha Mekki co...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the season. This was probably the straw that broke the camels back and it is hard to see prices any lower. But on the other hand, the month of...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioning dynamics following the apparent Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. While both sides have apparently agreed to some sort of ceasefire deal,...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Administration says negotiations are progressing, there are some high hurdles. Protectionists from India to Europe are pressuring their policy...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. The pre-report estimate is as follows: The pigs per litter for March through May is forecast at 101.3 percent of last year, with a range of 100.9 to 102.3 percent. The pig crop is expected at a one percent increase, that aligns wit...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at 8 months consumption. Jordan is increasing its grain storage capacity to a level that will allow as much as 16 months of wheat supply. Egyp...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Weather Not War Tanks the Market
Ags were mostly bearish on weather and an expected improving Crop Progress report, though the latter did not turn out that way. Equities opened partly in the red but quickly shifted green and stayed that way even after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. Save for hogs and Fe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting advanced by 21.8 percentage points last week and now covers 60.3 percent of the projected 6.7 Mha for the 2025/26 season. This pace is above the historical average but remains 5 percentage points behind last year’s progress. In the core product...
Dairy Herd Grows to Four Year High
Last Friday, the May dairy production totals were released, and USDA says milk production went up again in May. Production nationwide rose 1.6 percent, and the 24 major producing states saw production rise 1.7 percent. That is after production increases in April where USDA revised the April pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather patterns remain unfavorable for EU and UK summer crop development with above-average temperatures forecast for the next 15 days. The hot temperatures will combine with below-normal rainfall to offer significant chances at crop stress heading into mid-July. The la...
Market Commentary: A Day and a Week of Surprises
There isn’t always a common theme across markets. Sometimes a session starts amid diverse influences. Sometimes, shorts or longs will dominate an open, then be tested by participants with different ideas. Each jockeying to have their way. Today’s trading opened bearishly for major g...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.4 million head, 99 percent of last year. Total placements were down 8 percent and below the average pre-report estimate. Those lighter placements were partia...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ margin outlook continues to improve despite the recent pullback in feeder cattle prices. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015 but are now within striking distance of those records and could easily break them this fa...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize vessel rates initially pushing higher, but then failing on reduced coal, iron ore, and bauxite demand and shipments. Rates for Capes were particularly sensitive to China’s weakening coal import demand and the country&rsq...
Market Commentary: Wheat and War Rattle Ahead of Holiday
Corn and soybeans closed lower overnight and danced that way this morning but once again could not resist the pull of wheat higher. The wheat market doubled down on yesterday’s weather premium mood as the Southern Plains remain overly wet. The Fed walked back some of its previous alarm be...
Livestock Roundup: Big Cattle on Feed Report on Friday
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.8 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.1 and 99.4 percent of 1 June 2024. Over the past six...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Friday, 20 June. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 June 2025 The grains market saw no major changes especially with two days of holidays when the country celebrated Russia day. The new crop smell is in the air with annexed Crimea already harvesting. This season the crop in Crimea will be poor because the irri...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkish officials announced that the cost of vessels passing through the Bosphorus/Dardanelles will increase by 15 percent on 1 July. The new tariff is set at $5.83 per MT and will affect all grain/oilseed items from the Black Sea...
AP Quant: Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins are on a one-way trip to a very unpleasant place and despite a brief rebound last week, remain absolutely dismal. Packer margins improved $66/head last week thanks to a massive surge in beef values and modest fed cattle gains, but profits were still horrid at -$237/head, whi...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Locks Limit Up Again; Wheat, Corn Fall; New Highs for Hogs
Soyoil remained the star of the CBOT on Monday and locked limit-up for the second day following the surprisingly bullish EPA RVO mandates released Friday. That carried soybeans and ICE canola futures higher – along with other vegoil markets – for the day, but soybean and soyoil were...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance slowly, with a weekly gain of less than 3 percent bringing nationwide progress to nearly 47 percent. Harvesting has begun in northwest Argentina with low but expected yields, while results are better in the Central-West region of Có...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Global grain and oilseed markets are reacting to several shocks that occurred last week, most notably the EPA’s surprise bullish renewable fuel obligations for the U.S. and the Israel-Iran conflict. Oil futures are sharply higher on the Middle East conflict that threat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...
Beef and Cattle Prices to Remain Strong through 2025 and 2026
The biggest question in the cattle and beef markets lately has been “when does the rally stop?” after beef values and fed and feeder cattle prices have all rallied to new all-time highs (beef prices if one ignores the brief rally during the COVID-19 plant closures). The fundamental...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Market Commentary: Expectations Mostly Met
There were no shocks in today’s June USDA WASDE report, just tweaks that were generally within expectations. Corn, soybeans, soymeal, wheat, and cattle all pretty much settled in the same direction they were at just prior to the report’s release. It is important to note that USDA is...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
USDA released its June WASDE report today. The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Cow slaug...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
Outclassed; Unifying Food Safety; Inflation’s Real Issue
Outclassed In a nearly five-hour hearing before the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins proved again that she is one of the most politically astute of President Trump’s Cabinet members. She was adept at responding to a wide range of questions, nearly all of the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 June 2025 The grain market continued the transition from old crop to new crop meaning that the bearish trend is now across the board for all grains. The biggest bear was registered in the wheat belt which is located close to the export terminals as export dema...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Calm Amidst Upheaval; Unilateral Impacts; Ethanol’s Rise
Calm Amidst Upheaval Data or surveys about attitudes or opinions are said to be “soft” data since they are emotive based and less reliable. Soft data in recent months had been signaling angst about the U.S. economy and Mr. Trump’s handling of it. Yet, hard data has reflected g...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Grain markets in the MENA region are quiet due to the Musim Eid holidays that extends through 9 June. The FAO forecast Egypt to have above average grain crops in 2025, much of which is due to improved availability of high yi...
Livestock Industry Margins
New all-time highs in fed cattle prices caused beef packer margins to collapse again last week. Beef packer margins fell $97/head to -$299 – a new all-time low – as cattle procurement costs vastly exceeded beef sales revenue. The margin weakness comes near the seasonal peak in beef...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up; CAP Rush; Europe’s Military and Agriculture
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up The big story involves U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meeting in London this week. Discussions lasted three hours today and resume tomorrow but no one sees agriculture being involved in the talks. Instead, the focus is on export controls where Beijing is limiting...
USDA Trade Estimates Report Comes Under Scrutiny
USDA’s delay of its quarterly agricultural trade report, and exclusion of its typical explanatory text, raised concerns because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data. The bottom line is that the trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now. USDA data is considered a go...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.3 percentage points over the past week and reached 43.8 percent of the estimated area nationwide. Progress remains slow due to high grain moisture and inaccessible soils in some regions. Still, harvest pace is 8 points ahead of last year &mda...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower
Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn holding onto those gains by the closing bell. For corn futures, the market seemed to be more focused on the USDA’s ending stocks figure...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 14 July)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Changing Energy Landscape
In 2024, the U.S. imported about 17 percent of its domestic energy supply, half of the record share set in 2006, but the lowest share since 1985, according to the Energy Information Agency (EIA). The decline in imports’ share of supply in the previous two decades is attributable to both a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now covering 91 percent of the projected 6.7 million hectares. Regional progress of about 20 points was seen in areas previously delayed by surface wa...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025
Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork demand and reduced slaughter volumes and carcass weights, traders have been wary of the seasonal trend for prices to pull back in Q3 and Q4. WP...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite while Panamax and Supramax markets are higher on improved demand from the Atlantic and the East Coast of South America. Pacific markets have bee...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 July)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed harvesting was helping wheat prices rebound in the south, the Russia’s main export hub. To add fuel to the fire, yields are lower com...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000 MT. The government adds that the wheat received this year is of lower quality due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Yemeni Houthi rebe...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have done an incredible job managing margins this summer and in just three weeks swung from the deepest losses on record to well above breakev...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. The weakness continued into the day session with corn and soybeans turning in the biggest losses for the day as the weather outlook continues...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to minimize price and oversupply pressure on Romania’s domestic markets but disrupts the free trade flows arranged in the EU framework earl...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed little but they did confirm expectations. Weather continues to point toward ample crop supplies. President Trump teased there is a trade de...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday, 4 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our normal report schedule on Monday 7 July...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesday's market activity. The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Feeder Cattle Import Update
As summer demand for beef is upon us, fed cattle hit $233 per cwt yesterday, having moved above $200 per cwt in April on tight supplies. The cattle herd as of 1 January was the smallest in more than 50 years, imports of feeder cattle from Mexico have been suspended due to the New World Screwwor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins finally turned positive last week, the first time packers have made money killing cattle since last October. Margins swung dramatically from a -$131/head loss the prior week to a $15/head gain to close out June. The profits came from the sharp rally in beef prices, a $5/cwt...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day’s action. There were relatively few surprises in the report but minor deviations from expectations helped create support in new crop s...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotiations. Canada is second only to Mexico in terms of trade dependence on the U.S. Many Canadian producers are already hurting from trade sanct...
WPI Wheat Outlook: 2025/26 Prices to Firm After Q1 Weakness
With the June Grain Stocks report now in the rear-view mirror and having offered USDA’s somewhat final (there is always the possibility of revisions) assessment of ending stocks for the 2024/25 crop, WPI offers the following outlook for the U.S. and global wheat markets. We specifically f...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) strategy on pesticides to further “our shared goals of promoting children’s health and ensuring that pesticide regulatory...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and oilseed complex being rather subdued. Funds added just 1,997 contacts (12.8 percent) to their small net short across the ag space last week...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...
Input Costs Forecast to Rise, Led by Fertilizer
After rising sharply in 2022, input costs remain stubbornly high yet today. At the same time, the prices received for major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat have fallen by as much as 30 percent over the same period. In response to these economic headwinds, Congress stepped up thr...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dy bulk markets were mixed this week with the Capesize sector sliding lower as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East pushed buyers to the sidelines. The Panamax and Supramax markets saw enough support from Asian demand to sustain last week’s gains. Seasonally,...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn’t last. It has been a very bearish week, though the declines were much shallower today than in previous days. While soybeans and wheat we...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The numbers were in line with pre-report expectations. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 June was 75.1 million head. This was up slightly from 1 June 2024, and up 1 percent from 1 March 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) mandates release a little less than two weeks ago, which was followed by the Israel-Iran conflict. That conflict drove...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable among the day’s moves were the new contract lows in corn and soymeal and soybeans’ move back below the prices they traded just...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulatory Burdens to Unlock Innovation and Spur New Entry and the meat packing industry was front and center. UC-Berkely Senior Fellow Doha Mekki co...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the season. This was probably the straw that broke the camels back and it is hard to see prices any lower. But on the other hand, the month of...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioning dynamics following the apparent Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. While both sides have apparently agreed to some sort of ceasefire deal,...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Administration says negotiations are progressing, there are some high hurdles. Protectionists from India to Europe are pressuring their policy...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. The pre-report estimate is as follows: The pigs per litter for March through May is forecast at 101.3 percent of last year, with a range of 100.9 to 102.3 percent. The pig crop is expected at a one percent increase, that aligns wit...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at 8 months consumption. Jordan is increasing its grain storage capacity to a level that will allow as much as 16 months of wheat supply. Egyp...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Weather Not War Tanks the Market
Ags were mostly bearish on weather and an expected improving Crop Progress report, though the latter did not turn out that way. Equities opened partly in the red but quickly shifted green and stayed that way even after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. Save for hogs and Fe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting advanced by 21.8 percentage points last week and now covers 60.3 percent of the projected 6.7 Mha for the 2025/26 season. This pace is above the historical average but remains 5 percentage points behind last year’s progress. In the core product...
Dairy Herd Grows to Four Year High
Last Friday, the May dairy production totals were released, and USDA says milk production went up again in May. Production nationwide rose 1.6 percent, and the 24 major producing states saw production rise 1.7 percent. That is after production increases in April where USDA revised the April pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather patterns remain unfavorable for EU and UK summer crop development with above-average temperatures forecast for the next 15 days. The hot temperatures will combine with below-normal rainfall to offer significant chances at crop stress heading into mid-July. The la...
Market Commentary: A Day and a Week of Surprises
There isn’t always a common theme across markets. Sometimes a session starts amid diverse influences. Sometimes, shorts or longs will dominate an open, then be tested by participants with different ideas. Each jockeying to have their way. Today’s trading opened bearishly for major g...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.4 million head, 99 percent of last year. Total placements were down 8 percent and below the average pre-report estimate. Those lighter placements were partia...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ margin outlook continues to improve despite the recent pullback in feeder cattle prices. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015 but are now within striking distance of those records and could easily break them this fa...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize vessel rates initially pushing higher, but then failing on reduced coal, iron ore, and bauxite demand and shipments. Rates for Capes were particularly sensitive to China’s weakening coal import demand and the country&rsq...
Market Commentary: Wheat and War Rattle Ahead of Holiday
Corn and soybeans closed lower overnight and danced that way this morning but once again could not resist the pull of wheat higher. The wheat market doubled down on yesterday’s weather premium mood as the Southern Plains remain overly wet. The Fed walked back some of its previous alarm be...
Livestock Roundup: Big Cattle on Feed Report on Friday
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.8 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.1 and 99.4 percent of 1 June 2024. Over the past six...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Friday, 20 June. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 June 2025 The grains market saw no major changes especially with two days of holidays when the country celebrated Russia day. The new crop smell is in the air with annexed Crimea already harvesting. This season the crop in Crimea will be poor because the irri...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkish officials announced that the cost of vessels passing through the Bosphorus/Dardanelles will increase by 15 percent on 1 July. The new tariff is set at $5.83 per MT and will affect all grain/oilseed items from the Black Sea...
AP Quant: Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins are on a one-way trip to a very unpleasant place and despite a brief rebound last week, remain absolutely dismal. Packer margins improved $66/head last week thanks to a massive surge in beef values and modest fed cattle gains, but profits were still horrid at -$237/head, whi...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Locks Limit Up Again; Wheat, Corn Fall; New Highs for Hogs
Soyoil remained the star of the CBOT on Monday and locked limit-up for the second day following the surprisingly bullish EPA RVO mandates released Friday. That carried soybeans and ICE canola futures higher – along with other vegoil markets – for the day, but soybean and soyoil were...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance slowly, with a weekly gain of less than 3 percent bringing nationwide progress to nearly 47 percent. Harvesting has begun in northwest Argentina with low but expected yields, while results are better in the Central-West region of Có...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Global grain and oilseed markets are reacting to several shocks that occurred last week, most notably the EPA’s surprise bullish renewable fuel obligations for the U.S. and the Israel-Iran conflict. Oil futures are sharply higher on the Middle East conflict that threat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...
Beef and Cattle Prices to Remain Strong through 2025 and 2026
The biggest question in the cattle and beef markets lately has been “when does the rally stop?” after beef values and fed and feeder cattle prices have all rallied to new all-time highs (beef prices if one ignores the brief rally during the COVID-19 plant closures). The fundamental...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Market Commentary: Expectations Mostly Met
There were no shocks in today’s June USDA WASDE report, just tweaks that were generally within expectations. Corn, soybeans, soymeal, wheat, and cattle all pretty much settled in the same direction they were at just prior to the report’s release. It is important to note that USDA is...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
USDA released its June WASDE report today. The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Cow slaug...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
Outclassed; Unifying Food Safety; Inflation’s Real Issue
Outclassed In a nearly five-hour hearing before the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins proved again that she is one of the most politically astute of President Trump’s Cabinet members. She was adept at responding to a wide range of questions, nearly all of the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 June 2025 The grain market continued the transition from old crop to new crop meaning that the bearish trend is now across the board for all grains. The biggest bear was registered in the wheat belt which is located close to the export terminals as export dema...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Calm Amidst Upheaval; Unilateral Impacts; Ethanol’s Rise
Calm Amidst Upheaval Data or surveys about attitudes or opinions are said to be “soft” data since they are emotive based and less reliable. Soft data in recent months had been signaling angst about the U.S. economy and Mr. Trump’s handling of it. Yet, hard data has reflected g...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Grain markets in the MENA region are quiet due to the Musim Eid holidays that extends through 9 June. The FAO forecast Egypt to have above average grain crops in 2025, much of which is due to improved availability of high yi...
Livestock Industry Margins
New all-time highs in fed cattle prices caused beef packer margins to collapse again last week. Beef packer margins fell $97/head to -$299 – a new all-time low – as cattle procurement costs vastly exceeded beef sales revenue. The margin weakness comes near the seasonal peak in beef...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up; CAP Rush; Europe’s Military and Agriculture
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up The big story involves U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meeting in London this week. Discussions lasted three hours today and resume tomorrow but no one sees agriculture being involved in the talks. Instead, the focus is on export controls where Beijing is limiting...
USDA Trade Estimates Report Comes Under Scrutiny
USDA’s delay of its quarterly agricultural trade report, and exclusion of its typical explanatory text, raised concerns because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data. The bottom line is that the trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now. USDA data is considered a go...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.3 percentage points over the past week and reached 43.8 percent of the estimated area nationwide. Progress remains slow due to high grain moisture and inaccessible soils in some regions. Still, harvest pace is 8 points ahead of last year &mda...