Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the December 1, 2023 total of 12.016 million head.Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.80 million head, 4 percent below 2023. Marke...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 percent of last year’s 12 million head. The range of estimates was between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 December 2023. 12192...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the December 1, 2023 total of 12.016 million head.Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.80 million head, 4 percent below 2023. Marke...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 percent of last year’s 12 million head. The range of estimates was between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 December 2023. 12192...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...