Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...