Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Cracking the Egg Price Mystery
Egg prices have been through a volatile 18 months, rallying sharply in LH 2024 and into early 2025 as bird flu decimated the U.S. layer flock. In early 2025, the U.S. layer flock for table eggs specifically fell to at least a 10-year low, at 286.4 million birds, down about 16 percent from the 2...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $1.8 f...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report will be issued on Friday. The outlook calls for the cattle herd to be 86.4 million head, down from 86.7 million head last January, making it the seventh consecutive decline since 2019 and putting the cattle herd down 2 percent from the previous low point i...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, up $3.8 from yest...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses at -$185/head, little changed from the prior week. Rising boxed beef values continued to lag gains in fed cattle prices, keeping gross margins compressed despite incremental support from carcass weights and drop values. Rel...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294/short ton, down $0.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Cracking the Egg Price Mystery
Egg prices have been through a volatile 18 months, rallying sharply in LH 2024 and into early 2025 as bird flu decimated the U.S. layer flock. In early 2025, the U.S. layer flock for table eggs specifically fell to at least a 10-year low, at 286.4 million birds, down about 16 percent from the 2...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $1.8 f...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report will be issued on Friday. The outlook calls for the cattle herd to be 86.4 million head, down from 86.7 million head last January, making it the seventh consecutive decline since 2019 and putting the cattle herd down 2 percent from the previous low point i...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, up $3.8 from yest...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses at -$185/head, little changed from the prior week. Rising boxed beef values continued to lag gains in fed cattle prices, keeping gross margins compressed despite incremental support from carcass weights and drop values. Rel...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294/short ton, down $0.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...