Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, up $5.8 from...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Yield, Boosts Soybeans; Global Stocks Adequate but Vulnerable
What You Need to Know Today: USDA cut the 2026 corn yield forecast by 1.6 BPA to 179.6, shaving 141 Mbu off the crop. Corn ending stocks were cut by 91 Mbu to a level that pushed the ending stocks-to-use (ESU) ratio to 10.8 percent. Conversely, USDA raised the soybean yield forecast 0.2 BPA to...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Rally as Packer Profits Surge
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean futures were lower to open the week, with funds still in control and in a selling mood. The upcoming WASDE report on Tuesday is also likely to feature larger corn and soybean stocks, which helped put grain futures on the defensive. Wheat futures we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.9375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Look to WASDE for Direction
What You Need to Know Today: Market attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, with analysts anticipating a modest reduction in U.S. corn production estimates and an increase in soybean production. The report could provide fresh direction for grain markets as traders reass...
“Lame Duck” and “Farm Bill”: Mutually Exclusive?
The election is over – for the most part. Counting is still underway in some states, including Alaska, where a ranked-choice voting system is in place for the Senate race, and Mississippi, as well as in some House districts. But as of now, Democrats have secured at least 54 Senate seats,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money sold a net 235,000 agricultural futures contracts during the week, cutting the aggregate net long 52.8 percent to 210,000 contracts. Funds have reduced their aggregate agricultural net long by 423,000 contracts over the past two weeks, with this week’s selling exceeding the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.8825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Equity Market Selloff Weighs on Agricultural Commodities
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. equities declined sharply Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s post-election rally as investors continued selling technology stocks amid concerns that Democratic gains in the midterm elections could slow investment in artificial intelligence and data center d...
Livestock Roundup: Meat State Shake Up on Senate Agriculture Committee
The Senate Agriculture Committee will undergo significant changes in the new Congress beginning in January 2027, including several major shifts in meat-producing states. The Democratic Party’s tsunami swept Senator Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) out of office, and out of the seat once held by...
Milk Pricing with The Calf in the Ledger
What dairy breakeven looks like with and without the beef-on-dairy boom To put a dollar value on that question, this analysis removes the calf check from the USDA ledger and examines how many of the last five years would have reached breakeven without it. Key Takeaways: Milk and other income a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.0225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: The Votes Are In. The Market’s Still Deciding.
The US election is over, but the market’s debate is just beginning. A shift in Washington’s balance of power is changing policy expectations, while developments involving Iran and an early decline in the dollar are adding to the uncertainty. Now traders must decide how much of that...
Blue Wave Crashes on Ag Policy
Key Takeaways: The 2026 U.S. Midterm elections surprised many pundits and have created significant changes in how agriculture and major agricultural production states will be represented in Congress. Details on how candidates expect to address agricultural issues are still limited, and no offi...
Japan’s Agricultural Import Dependence Supports Consistent Demand
Key Takeaways: Japan’s mountainous geography and limited farmland constrain domestic agricultural production, while its highly developed economy and substantial purchasing power make it one of the world’s most important agricultural import markets. Japan’s calorie-based food...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Ags Turn Red as Election Map Blinks Blue
What You Need to Know Today: Corn broke sharply lower after overnight headlines that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials would meet for peace talks on 10 and 11 November. Mexico made its second large purchase of U.S. corn in as many days, bringing total purchases this week to just over 2 MM...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $89/head last week, up $53 from the prior week as declining fed cattle prices more than offset weaker beef cutout values. Fed cattle prices fell $3.35/cwt to $224/cwt while the Choice cutout declined $2.49/cwt to $366/cwt, improving packer profits. Despite the re...
Port Strike Averted, but New Deadline Looming and Pork Market Precarious
The brewing West Coast port strike involving about 250 maritime watchmen, or approximately 2 percent of port employees, has been postponed until 5 November after the workers agreed to extend the strike deadline. The watchmen control and inspect truck and employee access at terminal gates. A sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.6/short ton, down $5 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Rebounds on Exports; Bears Control CBOT and CME Otherwise
What You Need to Know Today: Funds remain in control of the market, which means broadly bearish trade for the ag sector. Monday’s massive corn export sale to Mexico helped trigger some short covering and a bit of other end-user buying in corn, which could help stabilize the market. Wheat...
Pork Market Weakness Extends Beyond Seasonal Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. hog and pork prices have declined sharply, with December lean hog futures ending October at $58.875/cwt and the pork cutout reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Seasonal increases in hog slaughter and pork production have contributed to price weakness, although the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Livestock Roundup: New AMS Reports and NWS Update
The new USDA report from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the newly dubbed South Central Daily Direct Slaughter Cattle Report Summary, showed that negotiated cash trade in the region as of Tuesday was mostly inactive, with only ligh...
The Wrong Side of the Ledger: Calf Prices Carried Dairy Since 2021, and Now They Are Straining the Herd
Key Takeaways: Milk alone has not covered the full economic cost in any year since 2021: milk revenue fell short by $4.50, $2.15, $6.50, $1.27 and $2.34 per hundredweight in 2021 through 2025. Calf and cattle prices decided whether dairies cleared cost: cattle and other income lifted total rev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 October 2026 The Russian grain market continued its recovery during the week, although prices remained volatile across regions. Wheat was notably bullish, while feed barley and corn were slower to appreciate, primarily because of weaker export demand amid logi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
Inaugural New Fed Cattle Report Was a Bust
Yesterday, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released a new report of negotiated cash purchases of cattle under the mandatory price report. The report included Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. The goal of the report was to solve the confidentiality issues e...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins plunged $105/head last week to $36/head as higher cattle prices combined with declining wholesale beef values to sharply compress packer profits. Fed cattle prices rose nearly $3/cwt to $227/cwt while the Choice cutout fell $4.75/cwt to $368/cwt. Margins have deteriorated $1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, up $5.8 from...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Yield, Boosts Soybeans; Global Stocks Adequate but Vulnerable
What You Need to Know Today: USDA cut the 2026 corn yield forecast by 1.6 BPA to 179.6, shaving 141 Mbu off the crop. Corn ending stocks were cut by 91 Mbu to a level that pushed the ending stocks-to-use (ESU) ratio to 10.8 percent. Conversely, USDA raised the soybean yield forecast 0.2 BPA to...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Rally as Packer Profits Surge
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean futures were lower to open the week, with funds still in control and in a selling mood. The upcoming WASDE report on Tuesday is also likely to feature larger corn and soybean stocks, which helped put grain futures on the defensive. Wheat futures we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.9375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Look to WASDE for Direction
What You Need to Know Today: Market attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, with analysts anticipating a modest reduction in U.S. corn production estimates and an increase in soybean production. The report could provide fresh direction for grain markets as traders reass...
“Lame Duck” and “Farm Bill”: Mutually Exclusive?
The election is over – for the most part. Counting is still underway in some states, including Alaska, where a ranked-choice voting system is in place for the Senate race, and Mississippi, as well as in some House districts. But as of now, Democrats have secured at least 54 Senate seats,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money sold a net 235,000 agricultural futures contracts during the week, cutting the aggregate net long 52.8 percent to 210,000 contracts. Funds have reduced their aggregate agricultural net long by 423,000 contracts over the past two weeks, with this week’s selling exceeding the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.8825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Equity Market Selloff Weighs on Agricultural Commodities
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. equities declined sharply Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s post-election rally as investors continued selling technology stocks amid concerns that Democratic gains in the midterm elections could slow investment in artificial intelligence and data center d...
Livestock Roundup: Meat State Shake Up on Senate Agriculture Committee
The Senate Agriculture Committee will undergo significant changes in the new Congress beginning in January 2027, including several major shifts in meat-producing states. The Democratic Party’s tsunami swept Senator Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) out of office, and out of the seat once held by...
Milk Pricing with The Calf in the Ledger
What dairy breakeven looks like with and without the beef-on-dairy boom To put a dollar value on that question, this analysis removes the calf check from the USDA ledger and examines how many of the last five years would have reached breakeven without it. Key Takeaways: Milk and other income a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.0225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: The Votes Are In. The Market’s Still Deciding.
The US election is over, but the market’s debate is just beginning. A shift in Washington’s balance of power is changing policy expectations, while developments involving Iran and an early decline in the dollar are adding to the uncertainty. Now traders must decide how much of that...
Blue Wave Crashes on Ag Policy
Key Takeaways: The 2026 U.S. Midterm elections surprised many pundits and have created significant changes in how agriculture and major agricultural production states will be represented in Congress. Details on how candidates expect to address agricultural issues are still limited, and no offi...
Japan’s Agricultural Import Dependence Supports Consistent Demand
Key Takeaways: Japan’s mountainous geography and limited farmland constrain domestic agricultural production, while its highly developed economy and substantial purchasing power make it one of the world’s most important agricultural import markets. Japan’s calorie-based food...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Ags Turn Red as Election Map Blinks Blue
What You Need to Know Today: Corn broke sharply lower after overnight headlines that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials would meet for peace talks on 10 and 11 November. Mexico made its second large purchase of U.S. corn in as many days, bringing total purchases this week to just over 2 MM...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $89/head last week, up $53 from the prior week as declining fed cattle prices more than offset weaker beef cutout values. Fed cattle prices fell $3.35/cwt to $224/cwt while the Choice cutout declined $2.49/cwt to $366/cwt, improving packer profits. Despite the re...
Port Strike Averted, but New Deadline Looming and Pork Market Precarious
The brewing West Coast port strike involving about 250 maritime watchmen, or approximately 2 percent of port employees, has been postponed until 5 November after the workers agreed to extend the strike deadline. The watchmen control and inspect truck and employee access at terminal gates. A sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.6/short ton, down $5 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Rebounds on Exports; Bears Control CBOT and CME Otherwise
What You Need to Know Today: Funds remain in control of the market, which means broadly bearish trade for the ag sector. Monday’s massive corn export sale to Mexico helped trigger some short covering and a bit of other end-user buying in corn, which could help stabilize the market. Wheat...
Pork Market Weakness Extends Beyond Seasonal Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. hog and pork prices have declined sharply, with December lean hog futures ending October at $58.875/cwt and the pork cutout reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Seasonal increases in hog slaughter and pork production have contributed to price weakness, although the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Livestock Roundup: New AMS Reports and NWS Update
The new USDA report from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the newly dubbed South Central Daily Direct Slaughter Cattle Report Summary, showed that negotiated cash trade in the region as of Tuesday was mostly inactive, with only ligh...
The Wrong Side of the Ledger: Calf Prices Carried Dairy Since 2021, and Now They Are Straining the Herd
Key Takeaways: Milk alone has not covered the full economic cost in any year since 2021: milk revenue fell short by $4.50, $2.15, $6.50, $1.27 and $2.34 per hundredweight in 2021 through 2025. Calf and cattle prices decided whether dairies cleared cost: cattle and other income lifted total rev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 October 2026 The Russian grain market continued its recovery during the week, although prices remained volatile across regions. Wheat was notably bullish, while feed barley and corn were slower to appreciate, primarily because of weaker export demand amid logi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
Inaugural New Fed Cattle Report Was a Bust
Yesterday, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released a new report of negotiated cash purchases of cattle under the mandatory price report. The report included Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. The goal of the report was to solve the confidentiality issues e...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins plunged $105/head last week to $36/head as higher cattle prices combined with declining wholesale beef values to sharply compress packer profits. Fed cattle prices rose nearly $3/cwt to $227/cwt while the Choice cutout fell $4.75/cwt to $368/cwt. Margins have deteriorated $1...