Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, up $1 fr...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.2/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9375/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $306.3/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Livestock Round Up: Korea, Good News and Bad News for Beef
In January, Korea’s tariff on U.S. beef will drop to zero as laid out in a long schedule as part of the 2012 Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Prior to the agreement it was 40 percent, in 2025 it was at 2.6 percent. Korea has been a growing market especially for premium cuts of beef, with...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, up $1 fr...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.2/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9375/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $306.3/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Livestock Round Up: Korea, Good News and Bad News for Beef
In January, Korea’s tariff on U.S. beef will drop to zero as laid out in a long schedule as part of the 2012 Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Prior to the agreement it was 40 percent, in 2025 it was at 2.6 percent. Korea has been a growing market especially for premium cuts of beef, with...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...