Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278/short ton, up $1.1 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.22/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.18/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278.6/short ton, down $0.7...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278/short ton, up $1.1 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.22/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.18/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278.6/short ton, down $0.7...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...