Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 21 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 2 - 8, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 303,300 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week, but down 29 perc...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.49/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $5.4...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 26, 2025 – January 1, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 118,700 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 172,000 MT were down 60 percent from the p...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.46/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $5.9 from y...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026
WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by bui...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 21 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published that day. Ag Perspectives will resume on Tuesday, 20 January...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 2 - 8, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 303,300 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week, but down 29 perc...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.49/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $5.4...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.
Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push deferred futures to new contract highs and nearby contracts just a few dollar shy of their contract highs. Despite this futures rally, physica...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 26, 2025 – January 1, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 118,700 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 172,000 MT were down 60 percent from the p...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.46/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back
The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments were a direct reversal of the 2015 guidelines, which were the first to not include a recommendation to consume meat based in part on sustai...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $5.9 from y...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 2010. Margins fell $144/head week over week to –$314 as fed cattle prices rose another $2.83/cwt while the Choice cutout plunged $14.20/...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.9 from yest...