Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 –23 May 2025 Grain markets finally realized that the new crop is near and bearish adjustments between the old crop and new crop started to become a reality like never before. Only Siberia is still waiting while the rest of the country is watching the export new c...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 27 May)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s wheat crop is expected to be down by 75 percent this year due to severe drought conditions. Syria will need to find a source for about 2.7 MMT of wheat in order to supply the population. Syria is hoping that the lift...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 –16 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The grain market was relatively stable, however, the gap between the new crop and old crop price indicators is getting wider and wider. The export market is just finishing up the marathon run where everybody knows the winner, the qu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is expected to have a record maize crop in 2025 due to increases in planting maize versus wheat or rice. Total maize planting area is up by close to 7 percent which could see the maize crop reach a record of 5.1 MMT &nd...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 –23 May 2025 Grain markets finally realized that the new crop is near and bearish adjustments between the old crop and new crop started to become a reality like never before. Only Siberia is still waiting while the rest of the country is watching the export new c...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 27 May)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s wheat crop is expected to be down by 75 percent this year due to severe drought conditions. Syria will need to find a source for about 2.7 MMT of wheat in order to supply the population. Syria is hoping that the lift...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 –16 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The grain market was relatively stable, however, the gap between the new crop and old crop price indicators is getting wider and wider. The export market is just finishing up the marathon run where everybody knows the winner, the qu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is expected to have a record maize crop in 2025 due to increases in planting maize versus wheat or rice. Total maize planting area is up by close to 7 percent which could see the maize crop reach a record of 5.1 MMT &nd...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...