Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 12 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 12 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...