USDA’s milk production forecast for 2024 reflects a reduced cow inventory for the year and slower growth in milk output per cow. Total production is forecast to be 228.3 billion pounds, which is a 0.75 percent increase from 2023. As of the end of 2023, the dairy cow inventory was 9.36 million head, down from 9.43 million head at the beginning of the year, and on a faster pace of contraction than 2022. The contraction led to a year-long average herd size of 9.395 million head, down from the average in 2022 of 9.402 million head. That contraction is forecast to continue down to 9.35 million head in 2024.

More clarity on the herd size will come at the end of the month with USDA’s Cattle Inventory report which will provide an in...