Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily...
Articles
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commissio...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 per...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 2...
Oilseed Highlights: Hovering Lower but Holding Steady
MarketAfter four sessions of yoyoing up and down on lower volume, January soybeans are rangebound and net 4.25 cents higher thus far this week. There have...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with droug...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 378,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 3 percent from the previous w...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less tha...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most wides...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become...
God Given Right
Expectations and reality do not always match. This is especially true in rich democracies where citizens expect their voices to be heard, or else. This dyn...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONIraq’s grain import requirements for 2024/25 are expected to be lower according t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the o...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, st...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-proce...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 366,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 33 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan...
Imports of Mexican Cattle Temporarily Suspended
A week ago today, on 22 November, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positi...
Mexico Corn Market Update
Mexico has been in the commodity news a lot recently, first due to its surge in imports from the U.S. and, this week, due to Trump’s threatened tariffs aga...