One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report,...
Articles
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further n...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 o...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of P...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess mo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined t...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of cou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, an...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operatio...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massiv...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed t...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked Ameri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head,...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in M...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural devel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans an...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recent...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechan...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payment...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis l...