CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming...
Articles
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as h...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag ministe...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheet...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wa...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, schedul...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming p...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The C...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally ag...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news driv...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing com...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationw...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two v...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell f...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promoti...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Preside...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the Whi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibi...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-fr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreem...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. ...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to rev...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. T...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which we...