Russian Grain Markets: 28 July – 1 August 2025 The harmonizing of July old crop and new crop pricing is coming to an end. As harvesting continues wit...
Articles
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and H...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka’s cereal imports in 2025 are seen increasing by about 10 percent to 1.6 MM...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. N...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and ex...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in t...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Tru...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting othe...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The dry bulk market rally of the past two weeks has ended with rates turning softer this week. The Capesize sector – which lea...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 18-24, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 592,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high...
Livestock Roundup: Cage-Free Egg Trend Complicates HPAI Recovery
USDA released its Egg Products report yesterday. Shell eggs broken totaled 199 million dozen during June 2025, down 2 percent from June 2024, but 2 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 July 2025 During the fourth week of the new 2025/26 season, the export market was still the driving force behind prici...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and B...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) may not be able to buy grain from Ukraine a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell $68/head last week and marked the third straight week of declines to end near -$220, which is back among the worst margins in the...
Market Commentary: Weather Overrides Trade Deal; Cattle Hit New Highs on Tight Inventories
The big news for Monday’s ag market trade wasn’t the U.S.-EU trade deal, but rather continued favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest that will b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.14/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. ...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Update The government this week announced a definitive — not temporary — reduction in export taxes for a series of a...
MAHA: More Pulses? Does it Matter?
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, spearheaded by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Department includes a lot of transformational goa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several we...
Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand
Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so prett...
Bullish Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Reports
USDA released two key reports on the cattle market today, the Cattle on Feed report and the July Cattle Inventory report. The Cattle Inventory report...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...
Cattle on Feed for July 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed is down 2 percent annually at 11.1 million head on July 1, 2025. Placements in June totaled 1.44 million head, 8 percent below 20...
WPI Transportation Report
Dy Bulk Markets Again this week, the bullish story is the rapid rise in Capesize vessel freight values with demand for Australian iron ore driving mo...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day
Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in Chin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recal...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow, along with the biannual July Cattle Inventory report for the first time in two years...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets
The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wond...
15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries
15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 July 2025 The new 2025/26 season export market is the driving force behind pricing patterns asking for more goods at t...
Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress
CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales f...
Ready for War; Deals Trickly In
Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.]...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Egg Report Analysis
The July CPI showed that retail egg prices have steadily dropped this year, down 7.4 percent from June, but still remain 27.3 percent higher than last year...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region A BRICS spokesman said that in light of the consolidation of companies in the grain trade,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell over $100/head for the second straight week to hit - $151/head, which is among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit f...
Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths
Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects...
Ten Days and Counting
Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&n...
Tariffs Rock Japan’s Election: Rice, Oil, and Autos
Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as Prime Minister despite his coalition government losing its majority in the upper house afte...