Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 2...
Articles
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, howev...
Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals
Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futu...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today, which was mostly in line with pre-report expectations; only placements came outside of the consensus...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on Octob...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Forecasting 2025 Cattle Inventories: Small Herd Increases Expected
As WPI has written about several times recently, the beef industry is eagerly awaiting the January Cattle Inventory report from USDA to see whether produce...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous wee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rise on Export Data; Soybeans Fall on South American Weather
Exports remain the name of the commodity game this week with all eyes on the UDSA daily “flash” export sales announcements as well as this week’s weekly Ex...
Oilseed Highlights: Steady Under a Delicate Balance
The MarketU.S. soybean exports have been impressive, but funds continue to focus on South American rains. For the week to date, November soybean futures ar...
BRICS Grain Exchange; Transatlantic Gaslighting
BRICS Grain ExchangeVladmir Putin used his BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia to formally suggest the creation of a grain exchange by the bloc of countries...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the pre-report consensus of analysts’ estimates is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 Octobe...
Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains
A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commerc...
Inflation Disconnect; Economic Opinions
Inflation DisconnectEconomists including those at the Federal Reserve use so-called core inflation when assessing the level of rising prices in the economy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov...
TFP as Focus
The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 perce...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all gra...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday mar...
U.S. Dietary Guidelines: Booze and Junk Food
Every five years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, issued by USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are updated. The new guideline...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Policy Shortz
U.S. – EU Reset: The transatlantic relationship must be reset after the upcoming election. Brussels produced a state-by-state report on Europe’s trade and...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consum...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according t...
Market Commentary: Exports Rally Corn, Soybeans but Pressure Wheat; Hogs Hit New Contract Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade again to start the week with a slate of fresh daily “flash” export sales announcements supporting corn and soybeans, as did a gene...
Biggest Monopoly; Aggies Challenge Trump; Food Safety Risks and Perceptions
Biggest MonopolyReflecting voter concerns about food inflation, both Harris and Trump are attacking the food system and implying concerns about monopoly po...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Aging, Shrinking Dairy Herd Tied to Beef Dynamics
There has been much discussion this year to the size of the beef cattle herd. The year started with the lowest overall cattle herd since 1951. Demand for b...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of i...
Olive Oil Volatility
Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The tw...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish Octob...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this mo...
Food Inflation and the Food Service Sector
September retail sales rose slightly more than expected and the underlying details of the report were solid. Sales rose 0.4 percent in September versus a c...
Cow-Calf Margins Outperform Forecasts, Imply Herd Rebuilding
With the start of the fall weaning and marketing program for most of America’s cow-calf producers, we’re starting to see the first realized profits for the...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather
Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. No...
Livestock Roundup: A Look at Cattle Herd Rebuilding
As WPI reported yesterday, the total supply of beef per capita is up this year over last based on imports and heavier slaughter weights; both are related t...
Oilseed Highlights: Under Pressure but Hovering
The MarketToday’s IGC report increased the growth in global soybean carryout and thus reinforced the bearish trend in the November futures contract. There...
State Control of Markets – Russia; State Control of Markets – U.S
State Control of MarketsRussia’s agriculture ministry recently “suggested” that grain exporters not sell wheat internationally below the minimum price of $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations co...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Mi...
Asymmetric on Tariffs
Most economists are clear in describing tariffs as a border tax. Their impacts include increasing costs on consumers and reducing trade, and thus self-harm...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due...
Planned Website Downtime Wednesday, 16 October
WPI is completing a series of upgrades to our website that will require about 50 minutes of downtime on Wednesday, 16 October starting at 12:00 PM EDT. The...
Red Meat and Poultry Situation
As WPI reported last week, the October WASDE increased its projection for beef production by 205 million pounds on higher slaughter and heavier carcass wei...
Farm Subsidies on the March
Subsidies can increase output and there are many ways to subsidize an industry, but that doesn’t mean that countries should do it. Cost o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and appar...
Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?
The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trad...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and norther...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...
Going up with a Bang
A futures contract that persistently moves up or down by just a penny or two each day imposes its own burden on the market. While speculators are said to p...