Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to mi...
Articles
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday, 4 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sale...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesd...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on im...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of g...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Feeder Cattle Import Update
As summer demand for beef is upon us, fed cattle hit $233 per cwt yesterday, having moved above $200 per cwt in April on tight supplies. The cattle herd as...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins finally turned positive last week, the first time packers have made money killing cattle since last October. Margins swung dramatically...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day&...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotia...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close...
WPI Wheat Outlook: 2025/26 Prices to Firm After Q1 Weakness
With the June Grain Stocks report now in the rear-view mirror and having offered USDA’s somewhat final (there is always the possibility of revisions)...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring pre...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. N...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Fu...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s...
Input Costs Forecast to Rise, Led by Fertilizer
After rising sharply in 2022, input costs remain stubbornly high yet today. At the same time, the prices received for major crops like corn, soybeans and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dy bulk markets were mixed this week with the Capesize sector sliding lower as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East pushed bu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn&rsq...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The numbers were in line with pre-report expectations. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 June...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Vo...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulator...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioni...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Ad...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. The pre-report estimate is as follows: The pigs per litter for March through May is forecas...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: Weather Not War Tanks the Market
Ags were mostly bearish on weather and an expected improving Crop Progress report, though the latter did not turn out that way. Equities opened partly in t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1925/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting advanced by 21.8 percentage points last week and now covers 60.3 percent of the projected 6.7 Mha for the 2025...
Dairy Herd Grows to Four Year High
Last Friday, the May dairy production totals were released, and USDA says milk production went up again in May. Production nationwide rose 1.6 percent, and...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather patterns remain unfavorable for EU and UK summer crop development with above-average temperatures forecast for the next 15...
Cattle on Feed - June 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.4 million head on June 1, 2025. This was down 1 percent from June 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1...
Market Commentary: A Day and a Week of Surprises
There isn’t always a common theme across markets. Sometimes a session starts amid diverse influences. Sometimes, shorts or longs will dominate an ope...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.4 million head, 99 percent of last year. &n...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.6775/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ margin outlook continues to improve despite the recent pullback in feeder cattle prices. Returns on an inflation-...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize vessel rates initially pushing higher, but then failing on reduced coal, iron ore, and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3275/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Wheat and War Rattle Ahead of Holiday
Corn and soybeans closed lower overnight and danced that way this morning but once again could not resist the pull of wheat higher. The wheat market double...
Livestock Roundup: Big Cattle on Feed Report on Friday
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on f...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.2525 from yesterday's close. ...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 June 2025 The grains market saw no major changes especially with two days of holidays when the country celebrated Russi...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish head...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. ...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkish officials announced that the cost of vessels passing through the Bosphorus/Dardane...
AP Quant: Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins are on a one-way trip to a very unpleasant place and despite a brief rebound last week, remain absolutely dismal. Packer margins improv...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Locks Limit Up Again; Wheat, Corn Fall; New Highs for Hogs
Soyoil remained the star of the CBOT on Monday and locked limit-up for the second day following the surprisingly bullish EPA RVO mandates released Friday...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (R...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance slowly, with a weekly gain of less than 3 percent bringing nationwide progress to nearly 47 percen...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Global grain and oilseed markets are reacting to several shocks that occurred last week, most notably the EPA’s surprise bullish...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the l...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bu...