Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueli...
Articles
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus req...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become mo...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade some...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1275/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no cl...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the seas...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall c...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' in...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presiden...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were espec...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought ano...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data ty...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming s...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopen...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circum...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than trader...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progre...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the q...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellati...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef pri...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ exi...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currenc...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) t...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today,...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from Se...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Cape...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh woun...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 12-18, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 539,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while s...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expec...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to driv...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had propos...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific fore...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.205/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2025 wheat crop is above the five-year average at a total of 5.1 MMT which is...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins pulled back last week but remained positive for just the sixth time this year. Margins fell about $64/head due to weaker beef prices (e...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s gov...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, &ldqu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo Le&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were volatile last week but failed to settle on much of a direction. Capesize markets stabilized and seemed to be finding a little support...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soy...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag...
Cattle of Feed - Sep 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2025. The inventory was 1 percent below Septe...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.1 million head, 99 percent of last year, as exp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ profitability outlook continues to defy all bullish expectations with projected returns surging to all-time highs...