Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&...
Articles
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that wil...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September e...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-c...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase headin...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales rep...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting glob...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two co...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from t...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted bo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. J...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplementa...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI&r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines mov...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers ha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallie...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agri...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to decrease 10 million bushels to 290. The projected U.S. season-average soybean pric...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The projected U.S. season-average corn pr...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdr...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not prod...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late N...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate th...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-ope...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Sw...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in in...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil wer...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (tr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. ...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an est...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as h...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag ministe...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheet...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wa...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, schedul...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming p...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The C...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence...