Per USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory report, the total number of cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was at its lowest point in more than 70...
Articles
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybean...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, deman...
Market Commentary: Corn Reversal Continues; Weather, Conditions Ratings Sink Soybeans
The big move at the CBOT Tuesday was a 1¾-cent gain in December corn futures – which isn’t much but that the development followed Monday...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import de...
Consumer Price Index and Employment Reports
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June CPI this morning. The CPI increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual inflation level is at 14.4 percent in the latest month, down from 16...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins abandoned their two-week streak of positive numbers and fell $102/head last week to -$47. The move was expected as the Choice cutout wa...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower
Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn ho...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now coveri...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations conti...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net sh...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is co...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 millio...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. c...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs,...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. whe...
Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025
Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork dem...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&n...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite whil...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 27-July 3, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 567,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were primarily for South Korea (90,000 MT),...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.545/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. N...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. Th...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagna...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of exc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trad...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have don...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariff...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of incr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fie...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to mi...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday, 4 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sale...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesd...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on im...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of g...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Feeder Cattle Import Update
As summer demand for beef is upon us, fed cattle hit $233 per cwt yesterday, having moved above $200 per cwt in April on tight supplies. The cattle herd as...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins finally turned positive last week, the first time packers have made money killing cattle since last October. Margins swung dramatically...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day&...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotia...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close...
WPI Wheat Outlook: 2025/26 Prices to Firm After Q1 Weakness
With the June Grain Stocks report now in the rear-view mirror and having offered USDA’s somewhat final (there is always the possibility of revisions)...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring pre...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. N...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Fu...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s...
Input Costs Forecast to Rise, Led by Fertilizer
After rising sharply in 2022, input costs remain stubbornly high yet today. At the same time, the prices received for major crops like corn, soybeans and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dy bulk markets were mixed this week with the Capesize sector sliding lower as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East pushed bu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn&rsq...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The numbers were in line with pre-report expectations. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 June...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Vo...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulator...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the...