Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and...
Articles
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head,...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in M...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural devel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans an...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recent...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechan...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payment...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef pack...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry produc...
U.S. 2025/26 Crop Balance Sheets Growing Heavy
WPI’s latest forecasts for the U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum markets in 2025/26 are increasingly leaning bearish due to expected larger supp...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueli...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus req...
New Truck Tariffs to Hit Mexico
President Trump said yesterday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. will face a 25 percent tariff rate starting 1 November. ...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become mo...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade some...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1275/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no cl...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the seas...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall c...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' in...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presiden...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were espec...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought ano...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data ty...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming s...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopen...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circum...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than trader...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progre...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the q...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellati...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef pri...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ exi...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currenc...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) t...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today,...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from Se...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Cape...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh woun...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 12-18, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 539,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while s...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 September 2025 Bullish sentiment returned to the Russian grain markets during the third week of September, defying expec...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to driv...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had propos...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific fore...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.205/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. ...