President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collec...
Articles
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region North African and Middle East wheat, corn, and barley importers will see more competition...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed du...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical we...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nb...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest progressed by 11.5 percent during the week, lifting completion to 45 percent of the harvestable area. Fieldwork moved across the central agri...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's rene...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mex...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of un...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up: Korea, Good News and Bad News for Beef
In January, Korea’s tariff on U.S. beef will drop to zero as laid out in a long schedule as part of the 2012 Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Prior t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with C...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed du...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 November 2025 During the last week of November, grain markets remained quite volatile from region to region. A strong RU...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 2...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in th...
China Market Analysis
Economy China’s official data and its rhetoric do not always align and while its exports have remained robust, it has not prevented a slump in manufa...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey is reportedly buying Russian grain once again due to lower wheat production this ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the pover...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated matu...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sh...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australi...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. F...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below Novemb...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year.  ...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrict...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at ab...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical fa...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that wil...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September e...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-c...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase headin...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales rep...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting glob...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two co...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from t...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted bo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. J...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplementa...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI&r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines mov...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers ha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallie...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agri...