Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Articles
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s wheat crop is expected to be down by 75 percent this year due to severe drou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets i...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 26 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 27 May...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ financial outlook continues to improve with the recent gains in feeder cattle prices and overall weakness in feed...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to fo...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 –16 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The grain market was relatively stable, however, the gap between the new crop and old crop p...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by M...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. export...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is expected to have a record maize crop in 2025 due to increases in planting ma...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins improved for the first time in several weeks last week with gains in beef and pork prices offsetting gains in market animal values. Bee...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big new...
Fake is Out
Health and Human Services Secretary RFK, Jr. wants to stop demand for fake food colorings and Americans are slowing demand for fake food products. The dema...
I Don’t Care; Rebalancing U.S. – Japan Trade
I Don’t Care That is likely President Trump’s attitude toward the WTO General Council’s castigation of his tariff war. Understandably, WT...
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the U.S, credit worthiness and warned about rising levels of government debt and a widening budget deficit, cutting its...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few day...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather for the UK and northern Europe remains a major concern for crops. The UK is currently experiencing its driest year of the 2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming split on their views for the grains and oilseeds complexes going forward. Funds w...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook fo...
U.S. Agriculture Crisis
U.S. farmers’ export markets were challenging before the trade war, and they are not coming back. It is time for Plan B. The trade agreement still be...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a...
Freight Market Updates and WPI Freight App
Transportation and Freight Market Comments Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets continue to drift sideways or lower as they wait for improved cargo dema...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 2-8, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 58,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Shortage Still Affecting Prices
Cattle supply still matters. USDA has announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World S...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s...
Pesticide Assault; WTO Attacks U.S.; African Future
Pesticide Assault The Wall Street Journal reported that RFK, Jr.’s intent to ban all pesticides is running into opposition from other officials in th...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to l...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE&...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model tha...
Bearish Wheat Report, Bullish Foundation
USDA’s May WASDE report was perhaps surprisingly bearish wheat. Futures hit yet more new record lows again today. For the U.S., USDA found higher yie...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 2...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of c...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. T...
WASDE Livestock
The May WASDE included this disclaimer: Effective May 11, 2025, the USDA announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexic...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened again last week as profits for both beef and pork packers declined. Beef packer margins were sharply lower and hit another rec...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Market Movers Galore Move Markets
A tariff truce, export inspections, WASDE and crop progress. Monday was action packed and the much-anticipated USDA May WASDE report did not disappoint. In...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, not only because the focus remains on soybeans — with more than 21 perc...
U.S. and China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days and Continue Negotiating
After weeks of Chinese denials that they were engaged in talks with the U.S on tariffs, the governments of the United States and the People’s Republi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France and Romania are lobbying for stricter alignment of Ukrainian grain terms with EU standards. The move comes as concerns about log...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report highlighted funds’ increasingly bearish view on ag commodities with managed money traders emerging as net sellers across t...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Trade Deal with UK
Yesterday, President Trump announced from the Oval Office a trade deal “in principle” with the UK, the first of its kind following the reciproc...
Corn & Soybean Outlook: Riding Seasonal Patterns
With markets awaiting the May WASDE and USDA’s first comprehensive look at the 2025/26 crop balance sheets, many traders and analysts are looking for...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes
Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was reject...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast
The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and Sout...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The f...
It’s Complicated
This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his oppone...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s larg...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy c...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade
President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipu...
Recession Watch
Real GDP dipped at a -0.3 percent annual rate in Q1, the first decline for any quarter since 2022. However, the main reason was that trade with other count...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran’s 2025 wheat production is being hurt by very dry weather. Rainfall up to Febru...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened last week for both the beef and pork sector as higher animal costs exceeded any gains in meat values. Beef packer margins fell...