With markets awaiting the May WASDE and USDA’s first comprehensive look at the 2025/26 crop balance sheets, many traders and analysts are looking for...
Articles
Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes
Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was reject...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast
The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and Sout...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The f...
It’s Complicated
This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his oppone...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s larg...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy c...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade
President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipu...
Recession Watch
Real GDP dipped at a -0.3 percent annual rate in Q1, the first decline for any quarter since 2022. However, the main reason was that trade with other count...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran’s 2025 wheat production is being hurt by very dry weather. Rainfall up to Febru...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened last week for both the beef and pork sector as higher animal costs exceeded any gains in meat values. Beef packer margins fell...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommerci...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...
Trade Policy Contradictions
There are numerous trade policy contradictions, both between the U.S. and other countries, and within U.S. politics. Internationally, China worries about i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues...
FDA Approves PRRS Resistant Pigs
After years of research and a lengthy regulatory approval process, Genus Pig Improvement Company (PIC) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug A...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather forecast for Europe and the Black Sea remain highly varied, though mostly optimistic for grain and oilseed production. Cond...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The on...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Trade Deals Being Worked on With Japan, China, and the EU
Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is in D.C. to talk trade. During a two-hour meeting with various officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bes...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Prices Set to Cool as Production Increases
The outlook for the last half of the 2024/25 cocoa market is dominated by generally favorable weather and upward revisions to production estimates. Demand...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 18-24, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 72,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May W...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Outlook 2025
Broiler fundamentals continue to be favorable largely due to tight beef supplies and a more favorable value proposition versus the rest of the beef and por...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were...
Market Commentary: Q1 GDP Slowdown Hits Equities, Cattle Markets; Grains Gain while Soybeans Slumber
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with grain and oilseed markets lacking much fresh fundamental news, other than weather updates and the first deliveries aga...
Monumental Task; Rushed Deal; Polypessimistic
Monumental Task Luke Lindberg appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee yesterday to be interviewed for the position of USDA Under Secretary for Tra...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The spring planting campaign in Russia is in full swing. Fifty-six regions of Russia are...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Mo...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Trade War Positions
Canadians reacted with understandable revulsion to President Trump’s insults to their nation. In yesterday’s election, they were given two choi...
Canadian Elections
Canadian voters went to the polls last night. They selected Mark Carney, the current Prime Minister, as the leader of the new government. The writ of elect...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman will be hosting the USSEC 9th Regional Aquaculture Production Conference 2-5 May. Sus...
Livestock Industry Margins
The pork industry saw production margins improve last week as strong pork demand lifted prices for both the pork cutout and physical hogs. Pork packer marg...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much o...
Quick Hits
Canadian Elections: Canada is going to the polls today. Earlier in the year, the Liberal Party was out of favor in Canada, but Trump’s talk of the 51...
Hard Hit with Benefits; American Consumerism; AI’s Trump Trade Solution
Hard Hit with Benefits U.S. agriculture will likely bear the brunt of retaliation by trading partners responding to Mr. Trump’s tariff war, but it co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn A week of favorable weather has given a strong boost to the summer crop harvest. As anticipated, farmers have already switched from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU grain markets continue to see pressure as the euro’s meteoric rise to a 3½-year high against the U.S. dollar undermines...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years –...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product pr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. J...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oils...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 145,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up: 2024 Slaughter Totals
The annual livestock slaughter data for 2024 was released Tuesday from USDA. Despite a reduced cattle supply, beef production totaled 27 billion pounds, up...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in glo...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded high...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IA...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...
HPAI Waning This Spring
In 2022 and 2023, most HPAI cases affected producers during the spring and fall. The years 2024 and 2025 were different, however. The bulk of cases occurre...
The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War
The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR offi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq has confirmed that it will not need to import as much wheat in 2024/25 as it expects...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with p...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading und...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous wee...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspe...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling pr...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&n...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg&rs...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows com...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting po...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the...