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Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist

What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Trade War Fractures

Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debat...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop produc...

Livestock Industry Margins

Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placemen...

Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal

Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight d...

Cattle Markets Still Screwy

The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same pe...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and Algeria are seeing swarms of desert locusts coming from Libya on current stron...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close.  M...

Budget Deal Made Just in Time

The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a cont...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions Rain has slowed the corn harvest across much of Argentina’s central region, with progress advancing just 1...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are...

Deciphering Trump

The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives wil...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of th...

Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark

There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as th...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nb...

CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production

Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian cr...

Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again

The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301...

Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market

The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good unti...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Roundup: WASDE

Historical red meat and poultry supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. Tota...

Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets

The Market  Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China a...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous y...

Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety

Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairl...

Livestock Industry Margins

Livestock industry margins were mostly steady/higher last week, with the notable exception of beef packer margins. Beef processing profits fell $20/head la...

Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War

Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE rele...

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bus...

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers...

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels.  The result is that U...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...

Making Sense of the Economy

Q1 GDP growth is expected to be negative, per the Atlanta Fed “GDPNow.” Spending data is still generally positive through January, however, con...

Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs

The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the applicati...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusi...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT

Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China&rs...

New Canadian Prime Minister Selected

Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month...

Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE

Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread &l...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...

Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume

After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war...

U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook

The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean fut...

First Jobs Report of Trump Administration Released

Economists predicted that the number of jobs added last month would be 160,000 ahead of the employment report, however, the actual figure was lower than ex...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day

Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration ann...

Livestock Roundup: U.S. Canada Cattle Market

New trade disruptions, such as the 25 percent tariffs on Canadian feeder cattle, could possibly lead to more cattle being kept on pasture in Canada, which...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025  Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous w...

Oilseed Highlights: Tariffs Rock Global Oilseed Complex

The Market  The CBOT soy complex saw dramatic volatility over the past week due to the impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China and Ch...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows

CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House sp...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling whe...

Egg Estimations

Eggs are in the news due to avian influenza reducing the total supply and inelastic demand causing prices to skyrocket. However, the impacts are felt even...

Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs

The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and...

It’s Tarriff Day!

It’s tariff day! President Trump followed through on his plan to impose tariffs on various imported products across the economy. At 12:01 a.m. EST to...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&n...

Tariff Tuesday; Profit for Eggs; Green Goals Implode

Tariff Tuesday As usual, there is some agreement with Donald Trump on his goal, in this case – improved terms of trade for a country running a perpet...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational in...

Livestock Industry Margins

Production margins across the livestock industry were mostly higher last week, except for the beef packing sector and closeout feedlot margins. Beef packer...

Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT

The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures agai...

Everything Will Be OK, Says Secretary Rollins

As President Trump gears up to roll out his sweeping tariff plans tomorrow, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is promising farmers she’ll be &ldqu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in r...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same m...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent an...

Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week

After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural fut...

USDA Oversight by Senate Committee

Yesterday, Judge William Alsup, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern California District, said the USDA firings were likely unlawful and ordered tha...

WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook

  Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...

Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices

USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and...

Livestock Roundup: 2025 Outlook

Today is the 2025 USDA Outlook Conference, a fitting time to look at commodity forecasts for the upcoming year. Below is USDA’s outlook for the lives...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025  Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market

The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for...

Jones Act on Steroids; Aller Anfang ist Schwer; Copycat Limits

Jones Act on Steroids The Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920) requires that shipping between U.S. ports involve U.S.-built, owned, flagged and manned v...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export...

Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength

The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bi...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...

Future of Grain Exports

Most nations pursue food self-sufficiency in the name of food security. This seemed silly when trade liberalization and comparative advantage promised more...

2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand

Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded a...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) has increased its ownership in...

Livestock Industry Margins

Production margins across the livestock industry were broadly lower last week, with weaker profits in the beef and pork packing sectors leading the way. Be...

Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT

Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Expo...

2025 Pork in China

Zhu Zengyong, an analyst and researcher with the state-backed Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said on Monday that there is no more room for pork...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas nee...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...

Monday Policy Shorts

Pesticide Policy: New and controversial Secretary of HHS, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. says “Nothing is off limits” including agricultural chemicals...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets  changed relatively little. Funds perhaps mos...

Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds

The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gai...

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