CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential vo...
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Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Fails to Stem Price Decline
The Market The USDA July WASDE was directionally bearish but not as much as expected. The trade initially turned higher after the report’s release bu...
SCOTUS Regulatory Ruling Already Having Impact
On 5 July, WPI reported that the recent Supreme Court decision on Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which overturned the so-called “Chevron defer...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period June 28-July 4, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 240,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Thailand (60...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went...
Livestock Roundup: Summer Cattle
The beef and cattle market is now past the milestone 4th of July holiday, between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends that define the high demand season. B...
PRC GMO in USA; Food Aid Dependency; CFTC Musical Chairs
PRC GMO in USA Members of Congress on the House Select Committee on China are furious at USDA for moving forward with approval of a biotech soybean develop...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Bulls Don’t Dare Challenge CBOT Bears
Bears once again dominated trade at the CBOT on Wednesday with a favorable U.S. weather forecast and somewhat surprisingly cheap wheat from Russia proving...
U.S. Talk Representative; EUDR Expansion; Hungary Tanks Innovation; Russia Bolsters CAP
U.S. Talk Representative The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) that grants duty free access to products from poorer countries expired almost four yea...
Geopolitical Trade Substitution
Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0725/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop for...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE sta...
Trade Barriers or Facilitation; Ag Rises in EU; Biden Regs
Trade Barriers or Facilitiation The WTO reported that its monitoring of various countries evidences that members are introducing more trade-facilitating po...
Wheat Supplies and Price Both Falling
Global wheat ending stocks have been persistently falling now for five years. Ordinarily, price and carryover supplies move inversely but the price of whea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.085/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Regulatory Agenda for 2024
The Administration has released its regulatory agenda for the rest of 2024. The agenda is a public notice process that details agencies’ work on prop...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report d...
Capital Investment and Productivity
While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the...
Dairy is Trading Despite Headwinds
U.S. dairy exporters have kept product moving despite a strong dollar and softer global demand. Prices for dairy have moved higher and are expected to stay...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Ag Appropriations Overview
Congress is back in session after the 4th of July Independence Day holiday break. But there are only 12 days on the legislative calendar for the month; the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no r...
Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Soyoil Spikes, and Short Covering
Volume was expected to be light today given yesterday’s holiday and a weekend ahead. And it was low for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 21-27, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 805,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Mexico (154,700 MT), the Phi...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil Drives Reversal for Soybeans, But Not Soymeal
The Market After hitting a four-year low last week, November soybeans reversed course this week, adding 25.75 cents (2.33 percent) to end at 1129.75/...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
New Paradigm for Regulatory Policy?
On 28 June, the Supreme Court issued its decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (Secretary of Commerce) case, which could have significant impact...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Thursday, 4 July 2024 in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resu...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade...
Transatlantic Monopsonists; Ex-Im Battle Continues
Transatlantic Monopsonists The three coalition partners (EPP, S&D, Renew) set to continue running the EU cannot agree on a sustainability agenda since...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pr...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia a...
Corn for Cars; Squeezed Between Two Labors
Corn for Cars Incoming Mexican agriculture minister Julio Berdegue said his country’s new government will not reduce imports of (GMO) yellow corn, bu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2125/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&nb...
FMMO Proposal Released by USDA
Yesterday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released its proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) from the hearing proc...
Corn Basis Pressure Points
Last week’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report revealed that farmers are holding 36 percent more corn in on-farm storage than a year earlier. One rule of t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout th...
Summary of Weekend Reads
Back by popular demand. Hang on to your seat, this is a whirlwind review of this past summer weekend’s beach reads. Taxes: One of former President Do...
Misalignment of Land and Labor
U.S. fruit and vegetable growers made their annual trek to Capitol Hill but instead of their usual gift of a full box of fresh produce for the Members of C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather trends remain unfavorable for crops with drought in Hungary and Romania hurting winter crop development and yield pote...
USDA Still Quantifying Practices and Procedures for 45Z Tax Credit
On Friday, USDA released a Request for Information (RFI) on the Production of Biofuel Feedstocks Using Climate-Smart Practices, with a 30-day comment perio...
Summary of Futures
Sep 24 Corn closed at $4.075/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Reports were Bearish Corn; Neutral Soy and Wheat
The market had been positioning in advance for today’s USDA Acreage and Q2 Stocks reports to be bearish and traders were generally rewarded. Though c...
Oilseed Highlights: Fifth Weekly Drop in Value
The Market This was the fifth consecutive week of decline in soybean values. November soybeans lost 16 cents (-1.42 percent) to finish out the week at 1104...
USDA Proposes More Packer and Stockyard Act Rules
The Administration has proposed a new rule, Fair and Competitive Livestock and Poultry Markets, designed to clarify unfair practices under the Packers and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Stocks versus Weather
While the overnight market was all green except for soymeal, it was only joined by wheat in green by the end of today’s trading session. There were l...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
Today, USDA released its quareterly Hogs and Pigs report for the March through May quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 June was 74.5 million...
Technology Ignores Regulators; Two Records in One Year
Technology Ignores Regulators Perhaps as expected, EU member states failed to agree to the latest compromise language on allowing the development of new ge...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Market Commentary: A Weak Bounce for Wheat; Livestock Rally
Wheat and soyoil managed some green today, but corn, beans and meal saw red. Not the whole session, but most of it. Volume could be called modest to low in...
Mixed Action for U.S. Exporters; Attacking American Citizens
Mixed Action for U.S. Exporters The Biden Administration announced an initiative to boost U.S. business opportunities abroad. The effort will be led by the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia&r...
Market Commentary: First the Acreage Report, Then the Weather
The trade today continued to set up for what could be a bearish USDA Acreage report at the end of the week. Certainly, there is the possibility of farmland...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
On Thursday, USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Key data will be inventories of slaughter hogs, breeding sows, an estimate of the March&...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT ou...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-co...
The Future of Loose Fiscal Policy and the Economy
Since the early 2000s, there has been plenty of discussion about whether monetary policy is too loose or too tight given the underlying economic conditions...
NGT Test this Week; New Mexican Authorities
NGT Test this Week The Belgian presidency of the EU will make its last effort to obtain approval of a regulatory proposal for new genomic techniques. If it...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Pork and Beef Diverge
U.S. beef production has been falling but pork output is rising. The higher price of beef has made the consumption of competing animal proteins like pork a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle and calves in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on June 1, 2024 - less than 1 percent below 2023. &nb...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short p...
Cattle on Feed Report: Placements Way Up in May
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Placements were the only category off from the consensus expectation. The range of estimates was a l...
Oilseed Highlights: Big Potential Supplies, Weather Bear on Market
The Market For the week, the July soybean contract fell 1.6 percent in value and is trading at 1160.5/bushel, its lowest level in three years. November soy...
Poor Feed for the Golden Goose; Disingenuous Argument
Poor Feed for the Golden Goose Most people understand basic economics, but not all the subtleties of its principles. Competition makes sense, unless someon...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 7-13, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 589,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 Export shipments of 363,600 MT were primar...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 June...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain p...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on NOPA Crush; Harvest Progress Pressures Wheat; Cattle Conundrum
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday blunting trading volume and overall price action. Corn and soybeans settled higher a...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Wednesday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.82/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Tight Margins Prevent Disruption; Hungary Isn’t Hungry; Two-Tiered Pricing
Tight Margins Prevent Disruption While populist politicians complain about corporate greed, the businesses with long term success in agriculture achieve th...
Trade Spat Between China and EU
When President Biden announced higher Section 232 tariffs on a list of Chinese goods (see WPI 14 May) anxieties were raised over possible retaliation (see...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the Afri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario...