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Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets

The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-ope...

Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher

 The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Sw...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Jan...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in in...

Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins

The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil wer...

Pandorra’s Tariff Box

This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (tr...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an est...

Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End

CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming...

Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation

Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry...

Beef, Pasta, Inflation

Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as h...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag ministe...

Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures

Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...

Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List

The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60...

Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week

Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing.  Corn closed lower for the d...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...

WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts

Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheet...

WPI Grain Transportation Report

Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower w...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close.&...

Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower

There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wa...

Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets

USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, schedul...

Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report

Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency&rsqu...

IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag

IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief...

Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness

Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The C...

Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow

The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence...

Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack

Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally ag...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Offer Ownership; False Equivalence

Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing com...

SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan

Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationw...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agr...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on...

Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures

Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...

Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High

Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two v...

The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins

CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell f...

Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner

Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promoti...

WPI Grain Transportation Report

Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand...

Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility

It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Preside...

Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown

The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...

Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?

Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the Whi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...

No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities

No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibi...

Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues

The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the r...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Ja...

Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math

Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-fr...

Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia

The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. ...

Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”

Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to rev...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT...

Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation

Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. T...

Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures

Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...

Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary

It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...

WPI Grain Transportation Report

Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron o...

Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages

It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been les...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  No...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whe...

What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data

One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report,...

Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash

U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Disconnected Beef

U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...

Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl

The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on...

Splitting Decision

Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU...

Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down

The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further n...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 o...

Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally

News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?

Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of P...

Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue

Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess mo...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined t...

Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked

Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of cou...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious

This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, an...

Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025

With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operatio...

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