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Corn & Soybean Outlook: Riding Seasonal Patterns

With markets awaiting the May WASDE and USDA’s first comprehensive look at the 2025/26 crop balance sheets, many traders and analysts are looking for...

Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes

Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was reject...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025.  Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...

Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast

The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would...

It’s Complicated

This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his oppone...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s larg...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...

Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade

President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipu...

Recession Watch

Real GDP dipped at a -0.3 percent annual rate in Q1, the first decline for any quarter since 2022. However, the main reason was that trade with other count...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran’s 2025 wheat production is being hurt by very dry weather. Rainfall up to Febru...

Livestock Industry Margins

Meat packer margins worsened last week for both the beef and pork sector as higher animal costs exceeded any gains in meat values. Beef packer margins fell...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...

Trade Policy Contradictions

There are numerous trade policy contradictions, both between the U.S. and other countries, and within U.S. politics. Internationally, China worries about i...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues...

FDA Approves PRRS Resistant Pigs

After years of research and a lengthy regulatory approval process, Genus Pig Improvement Company (PIC) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug A...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The weather forecast for Europe and the Black Sea remain highly varied, though mostly optimistic for grain and oilseed production. Cond...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The on...

Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day

It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

Trade Deals Being Worked on With Japan, China, and the EU

Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is in D.C. to talk trade. During a two-hour meeting with various officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bes...

Cocoa Market Outlook: Prices Set to Cool as Production Increases

The outlook for the last half of the 2024/25 cocoa market is dominated by generally favorable weather and upward revisions to production estimates. Demand...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for April 18-24, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 72,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and...

Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own

It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May W...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock Round Up: Broiler Outlook 2025

Broiler fundamentals continue to be favorable largely due to tight beef supplies and a more favorable value proposition versus the rest of the beef and por...

Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve

The Market  Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were...

Monumental Task; Rushed Deal; Polypessimistic

Monumental Task Luke Lindberg appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee yesterday to be interviewed for the position of USDA Under Secretary for Tra...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The spring planting campaign in Russia is in full swing. Fifty-six regions of Russia are...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Trade War Positions

Canadians reacted with understandable revulsion to President Trump’s insults to their nation. In yesterday’s election, they were given two choi...

Canadian Elections

Canadian voters went to the polls last night. They selected Mark Carney, the current Prime Minister, as the leader of the new government. The writ of elect...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman will be hosting the USSEC 9th Regional Aquaculture Production Conference 2-5 May. Sus...

Livestock Industry Margins

The pork industry saw production margins improve last week as strong pork demand lifted prices for both the pork cutout and physical hogs. Pork packer marg...

Quick Hits

Canadian Elections: Canada is going to the polls today. Earlier in the year, the Liberal Party was out of favor in Canada, but Trump’s talk of the 51...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

 Corn   A week of favorable weather has given a strong boost to the summer crop harvest. As anticipated, farmers have already switched from...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  EU grain markets continue to see pressure as the euro’s meteoric rise to a 3½-year high against the U.S. dollar undermines...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures...

Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week

With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some...

North Dakota and Glyphosate

Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years –...

U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook

U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product pr...

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  J...

Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound

Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oils...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for April 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 145,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previo...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Round Up: 2024 Slaughter Totals

The annual livestock slaughter data for 2024 was released Tuesday from USDA. Despite a reduced cattle supply, beef production totaled 27 billion pounds, up...

Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong

The Market  The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in glo...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...

Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid

Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IA...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter c...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...

HPAI Waning This Spring

In 2022 and 2023, most HPAI cases affected producers during the spring and fall. The years 2024 and 2025 were different, however. The bulk of cases occurre...

The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War

The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR offi...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq has confirmed that it will not need to import as much wheat in 2024/25 as it expects...

Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar

The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with p...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading und...

2025/2026 Trade Update

Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025.  Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous wee...

Cattle on Feed - April 2025

U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024.  Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes

There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one...

Good Friday

Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspe...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on...

Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher

The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers...

Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather

After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...

Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers

One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling pr...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&n...

Extreme is Necessary

While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg&rs...

EU and China on EV Tariffs

Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows com...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Grains  Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment

Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the...

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