U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the Dece...
Articles
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placemen...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue
The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will l...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipment for December 6-12, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 457,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 58 percent from the previous week and...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not ov...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Confluence of Bearish Factors
The MarketAfter hitting a four year low including a contract low of 947/bushel yesterday, the March contract bounced back 13.25 cents in today’s trading. B...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 per...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually cov...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action t...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural tr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bea...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and...
Dissecting the Retail Sales Report
Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November; this was slightly higher than the consensus expectations. There are a few nuances to consider, however. First, t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and sh...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt is rumored to be considering further devaluation of its currency against the U.S. dollar. T...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margi...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes int...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain g...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on th...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. Th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal r...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity tra...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be headi...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soy...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Educat...
Oilseed Highlights: Limping Along
The MarketSoybean futures continue their steady, narrow-range trading. South America is the big unknown and hedging both upside and downside risk means hov...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 29-December 5, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 290,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previo...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pound...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushel...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is ar...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONAn Egyptian military organization has reportedly taken over the wheat purchasing...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector saw mixed trends in profitability over the past week with packer margins improving for both the beef and pork sectors. Beef pa...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs i...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and i...
Red Meat and Broiler Trade
October meat and livestock trade data was released on Friday. Beef exports are down 2.6 percent at 2.5 billion pounds, following lower U.S. beef production...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commissio...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 per...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 2...
Oilseed Highlights: Hovering Lower but Holding Steady
MarketAfter four sessions of yoyoing up and down on lower volume, January soybeans are rangebound and net 4.25 cents higher thus far this week. There have...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with droug...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 378,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 3 percent from the previous w...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less tha...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most wides...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become...
God Given Right
Expectations and reality do not always match. This is especially true in rich democracies where citizens expect their voices to be heard, or else. This dyn...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONIraq’s grain import requirements for 2024/25 are expected to be lower according t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the o...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, st...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-proce...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 366,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 33 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan...
Imports of Mexican Cattle Temporarily Suspended
A week ago today, on 22 November, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positi...
Mexico Corn Market Update
Mexico has been in the commodity news a lot recently, first due to its surge in imports from the U.S. and, this week, due to Trump’s threatened tariffs aga...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Cor...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 28 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no iss...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 2...
Sino-Ag Roundup
Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this...