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Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025

Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a genera...

Transatlantic Inverse; Farm Bill Chances

Transatlantic InverseDepending on tomorrow’s election outcome, American businesses will either be saddled with more taxes, regulations, and attacks on cons...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. J...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall is...

European Market Analysis

Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their ne...

State Directed Meat; Living Space

State Directed MeatUSDA has been issuing loans and grants to startup livestock businesses with the goal of diversifying the industry, providing producers w...

Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers

Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...

October Jobs Report Tepid

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October jobs report this morning.  Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in Oct...

U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook

The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outloo...

Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules

The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday...

Oilseed Highlights: Bounce off the Bottom?

The MarketJanuary soybeans have now rebounded a second day in a row after opening the week lower. While it came within 10-cents of the contract low, export...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous...

Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook

Broiler slaughter was 158.86 million head last week, up from 158.139 million the week before and continuing to run above a year ago.  Broiler producti...

Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets

The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit takin...

Misdirected Fire; Over-Capacity

Misdirected FireThe Kamala Harris campaign is frustrated that the economy is hot, inflation has dissipated to just 2.4 percent, and yet voters are not feel...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic...

Livestock Industry Margins

WPI is excited to present a new, weekly, data-driven publication Ag Perspectives Quant: U.S. Livestock Industry Profit Margins. This report offers a compre...

Interest Rate Outlook

The Fed meets next week, the day after the election. It looks likely there will be a rate cut again for the second time in as many meetings. The federal fu...

Post-Election Transatlantic

The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. N...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT acco...

Newsom for President; Fake Meat Lacks Standing

Newsome for PresidentUntil this past Friday, U.S. ethanol producers feared that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) might make an effort to limit the...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...

Food Price Outlook Improves

There are often lags in time between when consumers notice a change in the economy, they begin to voice concerns, politicians begin to echo those concerns,...

RFK Jr Role in a Potential Trump Admin Worrying Aggies

With the election one week from tomorrow, many aggies are turning their attention to the probable role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Trump Administration s...

European Market Analysis

Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 2...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, howev...

Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals

Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futu...

Cattle on Feed Report

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today, which was mostly in line with pre-report expectations; only placements came outside of the consensus...

Cattle on Feed

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on Octob...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous wee...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov...

Oilseed Highlights: Steady Under a Delicate Balance

The MarketU.S. soybean exports have been impressive, but funds continue to focus on South American rains. For the week to date, November soybean futures ar...

BRICS Grain Exchange; Transatlantic Gaslighting

BRICS Grain ExchangeVladmir Putin used his BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia to formally suggest the creation of a grain exchange by the bloc of countries...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the pre-report consensus of analysts’ estimates is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 Octobe...

Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains

A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commerc...

Inflation Disconnect; Economic Opinions

Inflation DisconnectEconomists including those at the Federal Reserve use so-called core inflation when assessing the level of rising prices in the economy...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov...

TFP as Focus

The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 perce...

Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans

Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all gra...

Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher

The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday mar...

U.S. Dietary Guidelines: Booze and Junk Food

Every five years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, issued by USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are updated. The new guideline...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov...

Policy Shortz

U.S. – EU Reset: The transatlantic relationship must be reset after the upcoming election. Brussels produced a state-by-state report on Europe’s trade and...

Bangladesh Food Import Projection

Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consum...

The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates  MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according t...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Aging, Shrinking Dairy Herd Tied to Beef Dynamics

There has been much discussion this year to the size of the beef cattle herd. The year started with the lowest overall cattle herd since 1951. Demand for b...

The Mercosur Regional Analysis

WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of i...

Olive Oil Volatility

Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought...

European Market Analysis

Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The tw...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish Octob...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand

There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this mo...

Food Inflation and the Food Service Sector

September retail sales rose slightly more than expected and the underlying details of the report were solid. Sales rose 0.4 percent in September versus a c...

Cow-Calf Margins Outperform Forecasts, Imply Herd Rebuilding

With the start of the fall weaning and marketing program for most of America’s cow-calf producers, we’re starting to see the first realized profits for the...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previou...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather

Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. No...

Livestock Roundup: A Look at Cattle Herd Rebuilding

As WPI reported yesterday, the total supply of beef per capita is up this year over last based on imports and heavier slaughter weights; both are related t...

Oilseed Highlights: Under Pressure but Hovering

The MarketToday’s IGC report increased the growth in global soybean carryout and thus reinforced the bearish trend in the November futures contract. There...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. No...

The Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Mi...

Asymmetric on Tariffs

Most economists are clear in describing tariffs as a border tax. Their impacts include increasing costs on consumers and reducing trade, and thus self-harm...

Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans

Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather f...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due...

Planned Website Downtime Wednesday, 16 October

WPI is completing a series of upgrades to our website that will require about 50 minutes of downtime on Wednesday, 16 October starting at 12:00 PM EDT. The...

Red Meat and Poultry Situation

As WPI reported last week, the October WASDE increased its projection for beef production by 205 million pounds on higher slaughter and heavier carcass wei...

Farm Subsidies on the March

Subsidies can increase output and there are many ways to subsidize an industry, but that doesn’t mean that countries should do it.   Cost o...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trad...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and norther...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...

Going up with a Bang

A futures contract that persistently moves up or down by just a penny or two each day imposes its own burden on the market. While speculators are said to p...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitm...

WASDE Wheat

WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...

WASDE Soybeans

WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...

WASDE Corn

WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...

Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact

The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. N...

WASDE Outlook for Livestock: More Beef

Today’s WASDE increased the price outlook for 2024 fed steers after dropping it in September.  The September WASDE dropped the fed steer price b...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&...

Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall

At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an out...

Oilseed Highlights: Pre-WASDE but Relatively Firm

The Market The soybean market has been sliding heading into tomorrow USDA October WASDE report. The trade has positioned itself in the middle of the Septem...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock Roundup: Red Meat Exports

August trade data was released yesterday. High prices of U.S. beef exports have kept exports down. Compared to August 2023, total exports were 102,682 MT,...

Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations

Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. T...

Policy Potpourri

Good Many Organisms: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded this week to scientists at Google DeepMind using AI to predict the structure of proteins and...

Say Cheese!

Ilena Peng from Bloomberg has written about the expansion of U.S. cheese exports. Former French President Charles de Gaulle once noted that his country has...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian...

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