Last week on Friday 17 May, WPI outlined the commodity program proposals in the House farm bill draft. Below are some key changes in the conservation and t...
Articles
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, wh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.375 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s agriculture ministry announced that 900,000 hectares of crops will need to be reseeded this year after several frosts/fr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseeds Highlights: Defying the Odds
The Market Despite worries about used cooking oil imports, slow exports, and a drop in the NOPA crush, July soybeans closed the week up 9 cents (0.73 perce...
House Farm Bill Draft Commodity Program Proposals
As we reported Monday, 13 May, the full draft of the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill was expected to be released today, and it was. Following...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly highe...
Livestock Roundup: Pork Demand Rebound
Going into the summer, a big question for meat has been: how will consumer demand hold up? This is especially the case with steadily increasing beef prices...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China Retaliation?; WTO Dispute System Not Urgent
China Retaliation? The assumption is that China will retaliate against U.S. agriculture for any new tariffs applied to Chinese goods by President Biden und...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pauses and Drifts Lower; NOPA Crush Disappoints; Energies Rally as Inflation Eases
The CBOT started out firm again in the overnight session but quickly turned lower once the day session started. The reason seemed to be “sell the fac...
Transatlantic Glue
China understandably responded harshly to the Biden Administration’s sharp increase in tariffs on EV’s and components. However, there is not mu...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn productio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ra...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during t...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties im...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Tariff Man’s Competitor; Europe Correctly Fears Trump
Tariff Man’s Competitor Former President Donald Trump prided himself on his use of tariffs, which candidate Biden criticized but now President Biden...
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerne...
More Details, More Conflicts on Farm Bill
The slow roll of the details of the farm bill continues. On Friday, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) released a title-b...
Psychobiotic Nonsense; SPS/TBT and Poultry
Psychobiotic Nonsense One component of a book called The Psychobiotic Revolution is scientifically reasonable – that the human gut biome contains tri...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. ...
Milking Future Demand
U.S. and Mexican dairy industry representatives met and renewed their commitment to “collaborate and advocate for mutually beneficial dairy policies...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lowe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major flood...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bush...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.26 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/o...
Oilseed Highlights: Not Much Ado About Something
The Market After hitting a new contract low yesterday, the trade took July soyoil up nearly 2 cents today and closed out the week with a 3.1 percent rise t...
Tax Debate Coming in 2025 Despite Election Outcome
The 2024 election is now less than six months away. Most of the attention is being paid to various “horse race” issues such as polling, fundrai...
Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop
The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was...
Livestock Roundup: Strong Performance for Broilers in Q1
2024 is starting off to be a stronger year for broilers, and gaining momentum as the year progresses. Production through Q1 is 99 percent of last year in p...
Grossly Modified Opinion; BRICS Grain Exchange
Grossly Modified Opinion While the European Parliament’s plan for regulating New Genomic Traits (NGT’s) provides a lighter regulatory treatment...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.565/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 26-May 2, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 41,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the pre...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WA...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Flimsy Arguments; Bien SUR Pesticides
Flimsy Arguments Certain Americans are taking sides with Hamas in Gaza, arguing that it is Israel to blame. In a similar fashion, progressive groups focuse...
Meeting with the Cotton Hopeful
Although many small developing countries produce cotton, about five countries produce most of the fiber. China and India alone account for nearly half the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulti...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning effor...
Beef Supply Overview
The March data for beef exports at 256.108 million pounds showed a drop in volume of 10.4 percent from March 2023, but posted the highest volume of Q1. Exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4275/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Remake Agriculture for the Climate; Counter-Notifying India; Plurilateral Path
Remake Agriculture for the Climate The World Bank has issued a report on achieving net zero emissions in the agrifood system (Recipe for a Livable Planet)...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received 1,000,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and s...
Having Cake and Eat it Too; Philippine Opportunity
Having Cake and Eat it Too The U.S. is a major food exporter and its sales to India are relatively small and steady due to the border measures it encounter...
Geographic Food Price Differences
Eastern European countries were upset a few years ago when it was discovered that food marketers were retailing lower quality foods in their region of Euro...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4875/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. ...
House-Senate Ag Leader Talks on Farm Bill This Week; SNAP Will be an Issue
Both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees have released broad outlines that will underpin the two panels’ drafts of the farm bill. Reports fro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria purchased 200 KMT of hard wheat – rumored to originate in France – at $249-250/MT C&F. Turkey issued an i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Currently, Argentine farmers have harvested 22 percent of the corn area, with a weekly progress of only 2.3 percent. While soybean harvesting takes pr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights: South America/SAF Driving Developments
The Market For the week, the July soybean contract added 37.75 cents (3.2 percent) in value. November soybeans closed out Friday’s trading at $12.01/...
Circling the Corral; Un-deglobalizing
Circling the Corral Florida now bans the marketing of cultivated meat. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said lab-grown meat was a threat to the state’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. ...
Anti-Meat Slow Roll
As the implications of California’s Proposition 12 and Massachusetts’ Question 3 play out in the marketplace, yet another animal welfare ballot...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn ha...
Livestock Roundup: Ground Beef Clear of HPAI
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures rallied today after feeling the pressure of news and speculation about HPAI. As WPI reported previously, USDA announc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 20,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third st...
Food is First Victim; Energy Confusion
Food is First Victim Food comprises just 6 percent of all U.S. exports, but it is the first to receive retaliation in trade disputes. The latest example is...
Egyptian Food Inflation
Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commo...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from alm...
Market Commentary: Biodiesel Report Sinks Soyoil, Soy Complex; Wheat Falls on Forecast Rains
First notice day for May futures yielded heavy deliveries against the soyoil contract and, to a lesser extent, soybeans and soymeal. CBOT wheat also saw de...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustai...
Policy Shorts
Fertilizer Supplies: The U.S. Department of Commerce is recommending reduced tariffs on fertilizer imported from Russia, but increased duties on supplies f...
Olive Oil Gets Tighter
Olive oil is a niche product, comprising just under one percent of total global vegetable oil production. It is also higher priced, and only becoming more...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest...
Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correctio...
Carbon Wars; Teeing up Taiwan
Carbon Wars The EU is moving forward with its plans for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and with its EU Deforestation Regulation. Despite clai...
Farm Bill Behind the Scenes Negotiations
On 15 April WPI reported: House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has stated that he will move a farm bill draft out of commit...
Eat less, Toot Less
Plants such as beans, lentils and chickpeas are the nutritional rage. They are plant derived foods with higher protein content and thus their production an...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.085/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News ProZerno forecasts Russia’s 2024 total grain production will hit 135-136 MMT, down from 144.9 MMT in 2023. Wheat production is fo...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat highe...
Oilseed Highlights: Up, Despite Grey Clouds
The Market Brazil has been winning the soybean export war, and imported biodiesel feedstock threatens domestic crush margins, but Chicago trading this week...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
Q1 GDP Comes in Low, Interest Rate Expected to Stay High
The Q1 2024 GDP was 1.6 percent, well below the pre-report consensus expectation of 2.4 percent, and down from 3.1 percent in Q1 2023 and 3.4 percent in Q4...
U.S. Consumer Spending, Financial Health Supports 2024 Economic Outlook
As WPI readers likely well know by now, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an inflation- and seasonally-adjusted 1.6 percent rate in Q1 2024, which...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 12-18, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previo...
Summary of Futures
Thursday April 25, 2024...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and...
Most Apparent Solution; Future is Biotech
Most Apparent Solution The EU’s organic sector wants the bloc’s officials to take more action to ensure they achieve the target of 25 percent o...
Livestock Roundup: HPAI Developments
Yesterday, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued a federal order requiring testing and reporting of highly pathogenic avian influen...
Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat re...
Forecast Cow-Calf Profits Near Record, Robust Heifer Retention Expected
Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this does...
Summary of Futures
Thank you...
Reigniting a Transatlantic Deal; Indian Powerhouse; “Barons” is Bombastic
Reigniting a Transatlantic Deal Former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta is something of a policy rock star after authoring a report on the future...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may le...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook...
Hecho en Mexico; Radical for Small; Impeach Tai?
Hecho en Mexico While outgoing Mexican president and populist AMLO tries to shutdown American farmers, the U.S. government just keeps giving to Mexico. The...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output coul...
Summary of Futures
Thank you...