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Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025 – down 1 percent from January 1, 20...

Rollins Confirmation Hearing

As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, the Senate Agriculture Committee held a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of...

Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather

TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still...

Rollins Rolled; Cluelessness at the Top

Rollins Rolled Poised, confident, charming - USDA Secretary-Designate Brooke Rollins hit the trifecta today at her confirmation hearing before the Senate A...

Livestock Roundup: Bullish Feeder Pig Market

Bullish feeder pig prices could signal an expected return to improved profitability for hog production later this year.   The 17 January Nationa...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Mar...

Transatlantic Tariffication; Biofuel Battles

Transatlantic Tariffication President Trump’s bromance with big tech billionaires has refocused his attention on Europe. The large penalties and regu...

Summary of Futures

Please see attachment...

Global Wheat Dominance

Russia’s wheat supplies may be tighter, but it is still not out of the market. Egypt's state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, is said to have made a &ldq...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish aga...

Livestock Industry Margins

Livestock industry margins were decidedly mixed last week with diverging trends developing across the industry. Beef packer margins gained for the second s...

Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides

The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong bu...

Day One Trump Executive Orders

Shortly after his swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a slew of Executive Orders (EO) putting the wheels in motion...

Summary of Futures

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CFTC COT Report Analysis

The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the bigge...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend

Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights n...

Martin Luther King Holiday

Please note that Monday, 20 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of the remarkable achievements of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the mark...

Transitioning to Trump at USDA and in Congress

Monday is the Presidential Inaugural. This week has seen several Senate confirmation hearings on cabinet appointees.  Both the Republicans and Democra...

Political Sillies

No Introspection: Joe Biden’s farewell address appears to have been written by a 25-year-old at the socialist leaning People’s Policy Project. He claims hi...

Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake

Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than...

Livestock Roundup: Food Inflation Driven by Proteins

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December yesterday. For the month, the CPI was up 0.4 percent, while...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Trends and Acreage Outlook

U.S. Soybean Crush Dynamics On Wednesday, National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) said its members crushed an all-time record volume of soyb...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...

Squeezing Russian Wheat; Save the Rats; Rollins Delayed

Squeezing Russia with WheatEurope is afraid that Donald Trump is ready to capitulate to Vladimir Putin next week when he becomes president. But Trump has a...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in mos...

Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather

The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as f...

Produce Price Inflation Mixed Signals

Producer price inflation (PPI) ended 2024 up 0.2 percent in December. That is a modest gain and was below pre-report expectations. Nonetheless, the PPI was...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...

Impacts on U.S. Ethanol Trade

Brazil is the second largest producer and use of ethanol after the U.S. The U.S. has an import tariff on ethanol of 2.5 percent ad valorem and has asked Br...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONSyria has been added to Ukraine’s list of countries eligible for assistance under the “Grain from...

Livestock Industry Margins

Livestock industry margins were broadly higher last week with the one exception being placement margins for feedlots and closeout margins for farrow-to-fin...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ ac...

Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges

The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering th...

Coming Nominations Hearings

President-elect Trump’s inauguration is in one week. In the meantime, the Senate will soon start confirmation hearings on several of his cabinet nominees...

Greedflation’s Weaknesses; UPF Attack

Greedflation’s WeaknessesThe U.S. government is suing apartment owners for using RealPage software algorithms for setting rents. The grocery industry may b...

Noise as China Faces 2025

Trade WarPost the November U.S. election, the focus has been on preparing for an inevitable trade war with the U.S. China has increased government reserve...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total pro...

European Market Analysis

Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipi...

Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper

This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-pa...

45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet

As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be rele...

Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises

Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which mad...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--...

WASDE Soybeans Jan 2025

USDA’s January estimate is for U.S. soybean production is down 95 million bushels to 4.366 billion bushels due to a 1 bushel per acre yield reduction – to...

WASDE Corn Jan 2025

USDA’s January estimate is for reduced U.S. corn production at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3. U.S...

WASDE Wheat Jan 2025

USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 mil...

Oilseed Highlights

The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusin...

Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger

It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed i...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Ma...

Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters

There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commi...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025As of the end of 2024, Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) statistics show “preliminary” grain crop...

Trudeau Resigns as Canadian Prime Minister

On the campaign trail in 2024, then-candidate and now President-elect Donald Trump proposed to levy tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports, and 60 perc...

Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE

Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt will see the investment of $100 million by China’s New Hope Group in the expansion of its a...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall

The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full tradin...

Congress Certifies 2024 Election

In a joint session today, Congress certified the 2024 election results. That sets up the incoming Trump Administration to pursue an ambitious First 100 Day...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. M...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in rece...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&...

Market Commentary: 2025 Brings Corrections for Overbought Futures

The CBOT started 2025 on a relatively strong note, but any hints of bullishness were largely erased on Friday. Ag markets across the board fell sharply on...

2025 Poultry Outlook

The poultry sector is poised for production growth in 2025, but price trends are expected to vary across products. Broiler growers in the U.S. placed...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for December 20-26, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 140,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 77 per...

Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not

Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lowe...

Livestock Roundup: New Year Meat and Livestock Snapshot

Typically, prices for hams and the beef rib primal drop after Christmas, but this year, reduced slaughter has been more supportive of prices. What does tha...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans

The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day...

Happy New Year from WPI

The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...

Death of Ag Bidenomics; China 2025; Import Sensitivity

Death of Ag BidenomicsMuch has been written about Bidenomics. Its fans bemoan that the data is good, but the voters failed to appreciate that specific mess...

Market Commentary: Year-End Maneuvering

On this penultimate day of trading in 2024, there were ups, downs and perhaps some profit-taking. Like the overnight, grains and soybeans opened higher thi...

Parting Shot; Locality Pay

Parting ShotsIn an interview with DTN, outgoing USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack expressed his long-running frustration that farm spending favors larger farms an...

Cattle Market 2024 Retrospective and 2025 Outlook

This week marks the end of 2024, and the beginning of 2025.  Indeed, 2024 was a notable year in the cattle markets with implications to carry over int...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans

Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the fe...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Ma...

Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls

The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is...

Livestock Roundup: Butterfat Boom

As WPI reported on 2 July, USDA released its proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) reforms; the final proposal was released in early November 2024.&...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Rus...

Holiday Schedule

Financial markets will be closed on Wednesday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Wednesday. WP...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade

Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina...

Livestock Industry Margins

Both beef and pork packer margins improved last week on stronger spot meat demand and pricing while producer margins showed mixed trends. Margins for feedl...

Hogs and Pigs with Bearish Undertones

On 23 December, USDA released its quarterly (Sept-Nov) Hogs & Pigs report and it was bearish. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75...

Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri

Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, Chin...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey has revised its wheat import rules for flour millers – millers can now import up to 25 per...

Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays

The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Co...

Two Big Things; Trumpenomics

Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S...

Summary of Futures

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. J...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent...

European Market Analysis

Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT...

Total versus Change in Pork Consumption

China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expe...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the Dece...

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