While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be...
Articles
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the...
Dairy is Trading Despite Headwinds
U.S. dairy exporters have kept product moving despite a strong dollar and softer global demand. Prices for dairy have moved higher and are expected to stay...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Ag Appropriations Overview
Congress is back in session after the 4th of July Independence Day holiday break. But there are only 12 days on the legislative calendar for the month; the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no r...
Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Soyoil Spikes, and Short Covering
Volume was expected to be light today given yesterday’s holiday and a weekend ahead. And it was low for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 21-27, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 805,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Mexico (154,700 MT), the Phi...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil Drives Reversal for Soybeans, But Not Soymeal
The Market After hitting a four-year low last week, November soybeans reversed course this week, adding 25.75 cents (2.33 percent) to end at 1129.75/...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
New Paradigm for Regulatory Policy?
On 28 June, the Supreme Court issued its decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (Secretary of Commerce) case, which could have significant impact...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Thursday, 4 July 2024 in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resu...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade...
Transatlantic Monopsonists; Ex-Im Battle Continues
Transatlantic Monopsonists The three coalition partners (EPP, S&D, Renew) set to continue running the EU cannot agree on a sustainability agenda since...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pr...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia a...
Corn for Cars; Squeezed Between Two Labors
Corn for Cars Incoming Mexican agriculture minister Julio Berdegue said his country’s new government will not reduce imports of (GMO) yellow corn, bu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2125/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&nb...
FMMO Proposal Released by USDA
Yesterday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released its proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) from the hearing proc...
Corn Basis Pressure Points
Last week’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report revealed that farmers are holding 36 percent more corn in on-farm storage than a year earlier. One rule of t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout th...
Summary of Weekend Reads
Back by popular demand. Hang on to your seat, this is a whirlwind review of this past summer weekend’s beach reads. Taxes: One of former President Do...
Misalignment of Land and Labor
U.S. fruit and vegetable growers made their annual trek to Capitol Hill but instead of their usual gift of a full box of fresh produce for the Members of C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather trends remain unfavorable for crops with drought in Hungary and Romania hurting winter crop development and yield pote...
USDA Still Quantifying Practices and Procedures for 45Z Tax Credit
On Friday, USDA released a Request for Information (RFI) on the Production of Biofuel Feedstocks Using Climate-Smart Practices, with a 30-day comment perio...
Summary of Futures
Sep 24 Corn closed at $4.075/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Reports were Bearish Corn; Neutral Soy and Wheat
The market had been positioning in advance for today’s USDA Acreage and Q2 Stocks reports to be bearish and traders were generally rewarded. Though c...
Oilseed Highlights: Fifth Weekly Drop in Value
The Market This was the fifth consecutive week of decline in soybean values. November soybeans lost 16 cents (-1.42 percent) to finish out the week at 1104...
USDA Proposes More Packer and Stockyard Act Rules
The Administration has proposed a new rule, Fair and Competitive Livestock and Poultry Markets, designed to clarify unfair practices under the Packers and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Stocks versus Weather
While the overnight market was all green except for soymeal, it was only joined by wheat in green by the end of today’s trading session. There were l...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
Today, USDA released its quareterly Hogs and Pigs report for the March through May quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 June was 74.5 million...
Technology Ignores Regulators; Two Records in One Year
Technology Ignores Regulators Perhaps as expected, EU member states failed to agree to the latest compromise language on allowing the development of new ge...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Market Commentary: A Weak Bounce for Wheat; Livestock Rally
Wheat and soyoil managed some green today, but corn, beans and meal saw red. Not the whole session, but most of it. Volume could be called modest to low in...
Mixed Action for U.S. Exporters; Attacking American Citizens
Mixed Action for U.S. Exporters The Biden Administration announced an initiative to boost U.S. business opportunities abroad. The effort will be led by the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia&r...
Market Commentary: First the Acreage Report, Then the Weather
The trade today continued to set up for what could be a bearish USDA Acreage report at the end of the week. Certainly, there is the possibility of farmland...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
On Thursday, USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Key data will be inventories of slaughter hogs, breeding sows, an estimate of the March&...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT ou...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-co...
The Future of Loose Fiscal Policy and the Economy
Since the early 2000s, there has been plenty of discussion about whether monetary policy is too loose or too tight given the underlying economic conditions...
NGT Test this Week; New Mexican Authorities
NGT Test this Week The Belgian presidency of the EU will make its last effort to obtain approval of a regulatory proposal for new genomic techniques. If it...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Pork and Beef Diverge
U.S. beef production has been falling but pork output is rising. The higher price of beef has made the consumption of competing animal proteins like pork a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle and calves in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on June 1, 2024 - less than 1 percent below 2023. &nb...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short p...
Cattle on Feed Report: Placements Way Up in May
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Placements were the only category off from the consensus expectation. The range of estimates was a l...
Oilseed Highlights: Big Potential Supplies, Weather Bear on Market
The Market For the week, the July soybean contract fell 1.6 percent in value and is trading at 1160.5/bushel, its lowest level in three years. November soy...
Poor Feed for the Golden Goose; Disingenuous Argument
Poor Feed for the Golden Goose Most people understand basic economics, but not all the subtleties of its principles. Competition makes sense, unless someon...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 7-13, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 589,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 Export shipments of 363,600 MT were primar...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 June...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain p...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on NOPA Crush; Harvest Progress Pressures Wheat; Cattle Conundrum
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday blunting trading volume and overall price action. Corn and soybeans settled higher a...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Wednesday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.82/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Tight Margins Prevent Disruption; Hungary Isn’t Hungry; Two-Tiered Pricing
Tight Margins Prevent Disruption While populist politicians complain about corporate greed, the businesses with long term success in agriculture achieve th...
Trade Spat Between China and EU
When President Biden announced higher Section 232 tariffs on a list of Chinese goods (see WPI 14 May) anxieties were raised over possible retaliation (see...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the Afri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Weather, Modest Volume Sees Mostly Red
Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, cor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
USDA Proposes Poultry Contracting Rule
Early this month, USDA proposed the Poultry Grower Payments Systems and Capital Improvement Systems rule, the third in a series of livestock and poultry ma...
Oilseed Highlights: Barely Higher And Needing Rain
The Market If it is better to be lucky than good, it is better to close higher even if only barely. July soybeans rose a half-penny this week or 0.04 perce...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 31-June 6, 2024. Wheat: A total of 115,300 MT in sales were carried over from the 2023/2024 marketing year, which...
Market Commentary: Some Higher Closes on Sideways Trade
Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July cor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Ju...
Cutting Food Waste; Conflicting Approaches
Cutting Food Waste USDA issued a national strategy yesterday that aims to cut food waste by 50 percent by 2030. According to the agency, food waste in the...
Livestock Roundup: Production and Price Outlook
This week’s WASDE upped the projections for pork and broiler production and trimmed the beef forecast slightly at 5 million pounds. The beef f...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls on WASDE Numbers, Corn and Soy Steady; Hogs Post Turnaround
The CBOT was steady heading into Wednesday’s WASDE report from the USDA and largely remained so after the report’s release. Corn and soybeans s...
Farm Bill Prospects; Transatlantic Reverberations; Trade Policy Disconnect
Farm Bill Prospects Although the odds are long, there are some political dynamics that benefit the completion of a farm bill. Republicans barely control th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.17/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course, Corn and Soy Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. Tha...
Food as National Security; Food Policy and Climate Change
Food as National Security Journalists like Greg Ip and Noah Smith have identified the West’s trifecta of tools to counter China: industrial policy, e...
Senate Republican Farm Bill Framework
As WPI reported on 13 May, both the House and Senate agriculture committees released broad outlines of their respective farm bill drafts. The House Committ...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.495/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.265/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. ...
Priced to Move
U.S. wheat prices and export sales are moving as expected. Nearing the end of the marketing year, old crop wheat was cheaper and now new crop wheat as harv...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Accelerates; Corn, Soy Stabilized Before WASDE; Cattle and Hogs Diverge
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive...
Immigration Tariffs?
At a campaign event in Arizona, former President Trump floated the idea of using tariffs on countries who don’t cooperate with the U.S. on illegal im...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn wh...
Goodbye Green Deal/F2F; Unfarming California
Goodbye Green Deal/F2F The EU’s ruling elites are still assessing the impacts of yesterday’s victories by conservative parties that they had de...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. ...
El Niño Sparks Corn Demand
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilsee...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather Nudges Bearish Trend
The Market For the week, front month contracts saw a 4 percent decline (-25.75 cents) in soybeans (1179.25/bushel), a 1 percent decline (-$4) in soymeal ($...
Mixed Jobs Report, Higher Manufacturing, and Next Week’s Fed Meeting
Today’s jobs report indicated that total non-farm payrolls rose 272,000 in May, easily beating the consensus pre-report expectation of 180,000. Total...
Silly International Bureaucrat
UN Secretary General António Guterres has called fossil fuel firms the “grandfathers of climate chaos” and argues that advertising limit...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.275/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off a New Floor
Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For c...
Cattle and Beef: Bigger and Better Respectively
Total cattle slaughter last week during the shortened Memorial Day holiday week was down 67,000 head from the prior week and down 28,000 from last year. Ho...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.395/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 24-30, 2024 Wheat: The 2023/2024 crop year for U.S. wheat is winding down: Net sales reductions...
Market Commentary: CBOT’s Game of Price “Limbo” Continues
The CBOT seems to be locked in a game of bearish limbo with markets battling to see which can bend itself beneath the lowest levels of technical support. G...
Farm Bill Prognosis; Reciprocity with Canada
Farm Bill Prognosis A recent survey of economists indicated most do not believe a new U.S. farm bill will be enacted this year. Some speculated it would be...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.3925/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4675/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global mark...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. Ther...
U.S. – Brazil Dialogue; Tone Deaf in Europe
U.S. – Brazil Dialogue The 22nd Plenary of the U.S. – Brazil Commercial Dialogue will be held in September to discuss reducing non-tariff barri...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5825/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Six Weeks to Register for 2025 45Z Tax Credit, Still No Final Rules However
Yesterday, the Treasury Department released its Initial Guidance on registration for the Clean Fuel Production tax credit known as Section 45Z. To qualify...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong plant...
From Weekend Reading
In addition to attacking China, populist politicians on both the American right and left are finding audience encouragement when they attack big companies...