Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Articles
Impacts on U.S. Ethanol Trade
Brazil is the second largest producer and use of ethanol after the U.S. The U.S. has an import tariff on ethanol of 2.5 percent ad valorem and has asked Br...
Tariff Adjustment/Musk; Cynical Biden Trade Goals; Biofuel Proposal Disappoints
Tariff Adjustment /MuskRecognizing the inflation threat of sudden and large import tariffs, Donald Trump’s economic team: Scott Bessent (Treasury), Kevin H...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONSyria has been added to Ukraine’s list of countries eligible for assistance under the “Grain from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were broadly higher last week with the one exception being placement margins for feedlots and closeout margins for farrow-to-fin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering th...
Coming Nominations Hearings
President-elect Trump’s inauguration is in one week. In the meantime, the Senate will soon start confirmation hearings on several of his cabinet nominees...
Greedflation’s Weaknesses; UPF Attack
Greedflation’s WeaknessesThe U.S. government is suing apartment owners for using RealPage software algorithms for setting rents. The grocery industry may b...
Noise as China Faces 2025
Trade WarPost the November U.S. election, the focus has been on preparing for an inevitable trade war with the U.S. China has increased government reserve...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipi...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-pa...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be rele...
Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises
Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which mad...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--...
WASDE Soybeans Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for U.S. soybean production is down 95 million bushels to 4.366 billion bushels due to a 1 bushel per acre yield reduction – to...
WASDE Corn Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for reduced U.S. corn production at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3. U.S...
WASDE Wheat Jan 2025
USDA’s January estimate is for unchanged U.S. wheat exports of 850 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 mil...
Oilseed Highlights
The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusin...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Livestock Roundup: Market Conditions Transitioning from 2024 to 2025
Last year, cattle markets were driven by tight supplies of cattle, heavy carcass weights, low cow culling rates, higher input costs, more imports of feeder...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025As of the end of 2024, Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) statistics show “preliminary” grain crop...
Trudeau Resigns as Canadian Prime Minister
On the campaign trail in 2024, then-candidate and now President-elect Donald Trump proposed to levy tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports, and 60 perc...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt will see the investment of $100 million by China’s New Hope Group in the expansion of its a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full tradin...
Congress Certifies 2024 Election
In a joint session today, Congress certified the 2024 election results. That sets up the incoming Trump Administration to pursue an ambitious First 100 Day...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. M...
Another Trump Threat; UPF Threat; AI Threat; Africa-Land of Opportunity
Another Trump ThreatThe farm community supported Donald Trump’s election despite his pledge of tariffs that will no doubt cause retaliation against U.S. ex...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in rece...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: 2025 Brings Corrections for Overbought Futures
The CBOT started 2025 on a relatively strong note, but any hints of bullishness were largely erased on Friday. Ag markets across the board fell sharply on...
2025 Poultry Outlook
The poultry sector is poised for production growth in 2025, but price trends are expected to vary across products. Broiler growers in the U.S. placed...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 20-26, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 140,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down 77 per...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lowe...
Livestock Roundup: New Year Meat and Livestock Snapshot
Typically, prices for hams and the beef rib primal drop after Christmas, but this year, reduced slaughter has been more supportive of prices. What does tha...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day...
Happy New Year from WPI
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Death of Ag Bidenomics; China 2025; Import Sensitivity
Death of Ag BidenomicsMuch has been written about Bidenomics. Its fans bemoan that the data is good, but the voters failed to appreciate that specific mess...
Market Commentary: Year-End Maneuvering
On this penultimate day of trading in 2024, there were ups, downs and perhaps some profit-taking. Like the overnight, grains and soybeans opened higher thi...
Parting Shot; Locality Pay
Parting ShotsIn an interview with DTN, outgoing USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack expressed his long-running frustration that farm spending favors larger farms an...
Cattle Market 2024 Retrospective and 2025 Outlook
This week marks the end of 2024, and the beginning of 2025. Indeed, 2024 was a notable year in the cattle markets with implications to carry over int...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the fe...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.465/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is...
Livestock Roundup: Butterfat Boom
As WPI reported on 2 July, USDA released its proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) reforms; the final proposal was released in early November 2024.&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Rus...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Wednesday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Wednesday. WP...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina...
Livestock Industry Margins
Both beef and pork packer margins improved last week on stronger spot meat demand and pricing while producer margins showed mixed trends. Margins for feedl...
Hogs and Pigs with Bearish Undertones
On 23 December, USDA released its quarterly (Sept-Nov) Hogs & Pigs report and it was bearish. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75...
Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri
Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, Chin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey has revised its wheat import rules for flour millers – millers can now import up to 25 per...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Co...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. J...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expe...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the Dece...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placemen...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue
The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will l...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipment for December 6-12, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 457,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 58 percent from the previous week and...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not ov...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Confluence of Bearish Factors
The MarketAfter hitting a four year low including a contract low of 947/bushel yesterday, the March contract bounced back 13.25 cents in today’s trading. B...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 per...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually cov...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action t...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural tr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bea...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and...
Dissecting the Retail Sales Report
Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November; this was slightly higher than the consensus expectations. There are a few nuances to consider, however. First, t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and sh...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt is rumored to be considering further devaluation of its currency against the U.S. dollar. T...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margi...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes int...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain g...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on th...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. Th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal r...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity tra...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be headi...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soy...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Educat...
Oilseed Highlights: Limping Along
The MarketSoybean futures continue their steady, narrow-range trading. South America is the big unknown and hedging both upside and downside risk means hov...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 29-December 5, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 290,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previo...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pound...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushel...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be...