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Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harves...

Looking Ahead at Farmland Values

Crop land values appreciated significantly during the long tail of COVID impacts. It was predictable. Commodity prices were increasing. Inflation was high,...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.965/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Mar...

People In, Pork Out; Prop 12 Int’l Problem; Ceding the Advantage

People In, Pork Out Earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that California could stop pork from Iowa from coming into the state if it was not prod...

Whither Trade

Analysts are intensely studying the changes in trade flows and their composition following the reversal from free trade by the Trump Administration, the co...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and whea...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.965/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Wheat from the Chaff

The Environmental Defense Fund announced that Kansas faces more severe weather in the coming decades due to climate change, and it will have significant ne...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

2022/23 Crop Export Update The historic drought that impacted Argentina one year ago resulted in a drastic 38 percent decline in grain production during th...

Fertilizer Countervailing Duties Volatility

The International Trade Commission (ITC) announced last week it is upholding its decision that U.S fertilizer companies were harmed by Moroccan and Russian...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Wheat shipments through the Suez Canal have fallen 40 percent in the first half of January, due to the ongoing Houthi rebel attacks in...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.9 million head on January 1, 2024 (For feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head) Placements in feedlots during December...

Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing

Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Cattle on Feed Report: In Line with Expectations

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; it was right in line with analysts’ pre-report consensus expectations making it neutral and an...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9325/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. ...

Tradition Tackles Progress; Data Confusion

Tradition Tackles Progress At least twelve EU member states are trying to block the introduction of lab-grown meat. The pretense is that such a product &ld...

Oilseed Highlights: The Cup Runneth Over

The Market Pressured by improved weather in Brazil, favorable crop conditions in Argentina, and a softening Chinese market, March soybeans declined 0.89 pe...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for January 5-11, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales of 707,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous wee...

Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce

After hitting new contract lows in corn and wheat again today, there was a turnaround led by wheat. However, without any change in the underlying fundament...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed to be 102 pe...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  M...

Not Magnanimous; Transatlantic Tech Divide; Advice for Europe

Not Magnanimous An AgriPulse poll of geographically dispersed farmers from across the U.S. with at least $100,000 in gross annual income reflects some gree...

Market Commentary: New Lows for Corn, Wheat; Cattle & Hogs Extend Gains

The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with traders still reacting to the bearish implications of the January WASDE. For bulls, matters seem to keep getting...

Winter Gives Biofuel Boost

A record 1.2 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold in the U.S. in 2023. EVs hit a record 8.1 percent market share in the fourth quarter. However, also...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China Pork and Beans

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reports that pork production increased 4.6 percent in 2023 to 57.94 MMT. This makes the fourth consecutive year...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.82/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Grain Markets Drifting Lower into Planting Season?

The January WASDE and Grains Stocks reports are now past, but their impacts continued to drive CBOT price action to start the holiday-shortened week. Corn...

Policy and Politics Quick Hits

Budget Extension Over the weekend – doesn’t it seem budget deals are always struck on weekends – Congressional leaders came to an agreeme...

Transatlantic Commonality; Argentina’s NTB’s

Transatlantic Commonality Politico’s senior foreign correspondent Nahal Toosi noted that ambassadors in Washington are warning that U.S. power and in...

Value of Scale Recognized

Agriculture ministers from five EU countries (Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia) are asking the European Commission to come up with a soluti...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports that Suez Canal fees have dropped by 40 percent so far in 2...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, dow...

WASDE Corn

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushe...

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger end...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

Please note that Monday, 15 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the markets and World Perspectives, Inc...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Ag Policy Positions Before the Iowa Caucus

The Iowa Caucus for the Republican primary is Monday 15 January. Following is a look at the process, structure, and the candidates’ ag platforms.&nbs...

Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Adds to an Already Bearish Trend

The Market Today broke a record. For the first time in nine years, soybean futures did not rise on the release of the January WASDE report. With the except...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24...

Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stability with Bearish Intent

The market is steady but leaning bearish ahead of tomorrow’s USDA January WASDE report. The agency will put its final touches on numbers for 2023 and...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle Outlook

Cold and snow is impacting cattle markets this week; slowing feedlot placements and moving heavier cattle to pasture rather than the feedlot. Feeders&rsquo...

Greens Whiff; State Aid Impacts

Greens Whiff Farmers in Europe are upset with their policymakers. The French farmers union has just announced it backs the protests being made by German fa...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for December 29, 2023 – January 4, 2024. Wheat:  Net sales of 128,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 3 perc...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Quackery Has its Limits; Cockroach Amnesia; Identity Budgeting

Quackery Has its Limits  The USMCA panel opining on the Mexican ban on GMO corn has decided it will not accept comments from Canadian NGO groups wanti...

Bread Baskets

Import dependence for food rankles most politicians since they have persistently fed a nationalistic feedback loop on the issue to their constituents. No o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Chris...

Chips War; Domino Effect

Chips War China complained that Washington’s export restrictions on semiconductors and on Chinese telecommunications companies violate WTO principles...

Trade Deficit Down, Job Creation Up: A Look Under the Hood

Two recent economic reports have generated attention: the November balance of payments trade deficit and the December payroll report. There are tea leaves...

Eyes Open on India

USDA is leading a trade mission to India, noting that it is 1.4 billion people or 18 percent of the global population but accounts for less than one percen...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.5925/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Qatar has contributed $20 million to the “Grain from Ukraine”...

Market Commentary: No Rest for the Bullish

The CBOT followed its bearish drumbeat lower with corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal all logging steep declines for the day. Corn and Paris wheat futures s...

Bright Belgian Light; SSA Riddle

Bright Belgian Light According to Euractiv, Belgian Federal Minister David Clarinval said he would emphasize food sovereignty as he assumes the Presidency...

Grain Substitution

Grain producers saw the value of their output fall in 2023 and the best they can hope for in 2024 is to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, Europeans are frustra...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.55/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9625/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close.&...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe has faced heavy rains and dramatic storms in recent weeks that are causing profound concerns for winter crops. While the rain ha...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for December 22-28, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 131,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 52 percent from...

Oilseed Highlights: Third Weekly Loss to Six Month Low

The Market This was the third week in a row for March soybeans taking a loss and prices are down at six-month lows. Ample rains in central Brazil are bring...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Brazil Politics and Generic Pesticides

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed into law a new pesticide registration statute that will benefit the approval of generic pesticides. Th...

PepsiCo, Carrefour and GI’s; ChatGPT Goes Harvard

PepsiCo, Carrefour and GI’s A major story this week is major French retailer Carrefour saying it is dropping PepsiCo products because its prices are...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: And the Downward Beat Goes On

There was higher volume in SRW, HRW and lean hogs but overall volumes remained modest, and the export wire is quiet. The latter perhaps influenced by a str...

Russian Agriculture Enigma; Imbalanced Analysis

Russian Agriculture Enigma Among the many elections this year is Russia’s during 15-17 March. Vladimir Putin will be overwhelmingly elected. He has b...

Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Restructing in China

China is in its holiday season; first was the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year, on 22 December. Next is the Lunar New Year which begins on 10...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.665/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.135/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...

2023: A Look Back in Humor

Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously,...

Market Commentary: Greenback Pressures Wheat; Crude Rally Lifts Corn, Soybeans

The CBOT saw pressure for the second straight day with a four-day rebound in the U.S. dollar working against grain values. While the rising greenback press...

Trade is Dead, So is Ag; Siloed America

Trade is Dead, So is Ag The U.S. agricultural trade balance has reversed, going from positive to negative. Industry leaders are arguing that the solution i...

Geopolitical Shocks in 2024

Most reviews of the year 2023 characterize the period as tumultuous, largely due to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, coups in Africa driven by gold...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0025/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago...

Market Commentary: 2024 Trending Bearish Grains, Optimistic for Cattle

The CBOT started the holiday-shortened trading week with an old fashion hard open on Tuesday morning with no overnight trade to guide initial investment. T...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.6375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0675/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close...

2024 Meat Forecast

There are several pundits predicting this is the year that evidences the rise in consumption of plant-based proteins and the end of meat from animals. Thes...

Happy New Year – The Election Cycle has Started

It is 2024, and the upcoming Presidential and Congressional elections will start to cast a shadow over policy debates and timelines in Washington. For cont...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saud...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for December 15-21, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 276,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 14 percent from the previou...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.28/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Happy New Year from WPI!

The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...

Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bearish Day to End Bearish Year

The CBOT was mostly lower to close the 2023 calendar year, a fitting end to a year that saw deeply bearish price action across the grain markets. Since the...

Market Commentary: Wheat Escapes Doldrums; Corn, Soy Complex Drift Lower

Except for wheat, the CBOT and CME’s major ag markets were uniformly lower in a relatively unexciting trading session Thursday. Wheat managed to esca...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.315/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.23/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Mixed with Better Volume and Profit-taking

Wheat had a modest reversal from yesterday’s jump higher on profit-taking, soybeans and feeder cattle continued adding value, while soyoil and pigs c...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3625/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 So...

Market Commentary: Post Holiday Flush

Traders must have gotten some cash in their Christmas stockings because there was a slight buying mood in the market today. Except for bean oil and pork, m...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed was up 3 percent from year ago on Dec 1 to total 12.0 million head in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Placements in feedl...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Slow Day but Notable Reports for Next Week

Trading volumes today were down 40-50 percent in some commodities, but the bottom line was some exiting and losses from the week before an extended holiday...

Cattle on Feed Report: Continued Pressure on Cattle Prices

It was a big day for livestock market reports from USDA with the monthly Cattle on Feed report and the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, both at the closing...

Old President, Old Allegiances

President Biden sided with the steel workers union and will put Nippon Steel’s purchase of US Steel through the “serious scrutiny” of the...

Oilseed Highlights: Improving Weather and Challenging Logistics

The Market  Oilseed markets have seen more pressure than support this week due to improved weather forecasts for Brazil and increasingly challenging g...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for December 8-14, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 322,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 78 percent from the previous...

Market Commentary: Haunted by Transport Hurdles

As expected, commodity futures traded on generally lighter volumes and will continue that way until a new year of trading starts in January. Corn, wheat, a...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.125/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed, Hogs and Pigs Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow, along with the December quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.   The cattle markets are anticipati...

Bitter Problem; Blatant Nationalism

Bitter Problem The U.S. sugar program is an protectionist abomination emanating from a political deal in the 1981 farm bill. Unlike other crops that are su...

232 Confusion; Green Border Measures

232 Confusion WTO dispute settlement rulings are arcane, highly legalistic, but sometimes contradictory to the layman’s eye. The latest case is a rul...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7275/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.2275/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&...

Ag Exports Not the Panacea

According to the FAO agricultural trade index, Africa has experienced the relatively largest jump in the past decade, followed by North and South America...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at...

Summary of Futures

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.17/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Policy Updates Argentina’s new government led by Javier Milei has begun and several new measures have been implemented. Despite being unpopular and r...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  In its latest crop monitoring bulletin, the EU Commission’s MARS division noted few to no negative impacts on winter crops from t...

Not Walking the Talk; Music Protectionism; North-South Divide

Not Walking the Talk The European Environmental Agency has assessed the EU’s commitments and concludes that the goal of reducing emissions 55 percent...

Food Sovereignty Flipped

The government of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and now the social justice warrior class in the U.S. are framing the impendin...

Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Slide Sideways; Wheat, Cattle Extend Rallies

Trade at the CBOT was mostly a low-volume affair heading into the weekend and there was a growing sense that, except for wheat and cattle, most of the week...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

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