Today, USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June through August quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 Spetmeber was...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the co...
Industry Consolidation
U.S. antitrust law is complicated, but current efforts to block a merger between grocery retailers Albertsons and Kroger may not fit the bill. Current trig...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. More...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
On Thursday, USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June through August quarter showing the inventory as of 1 September. Pre-report e...
Tariff Spiral and WTO Failure; Nuclear Power and GMO’s
Tariff Spiral and WTO Failure Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump now says he will impose 200 percent tariffs on farm machinery from John Deere sh...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day&r...
Hypocritical on Process Standards; Buy America Bust; Politics of the Port Strike
Hypocritical on Process Standards EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will make a decision this week on implementation of the EU Deforestation Reg...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.135/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.825/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...
Pending Port Strikes: U.S. East and Gulf Coasts and Vancouver Canada
With a pending 1 October strike deadline on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts by the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA), the U.S. Department...
Running Out of Protein
Europe ran out of energy when the Russian attack on Ukraine forced it to reduce imports from Russia. Europe lacks the ability to defend itself despite Russ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on feed for the slaughter totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2024 - which was 1 percent above September 1, 2023. Placements in fee...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this...
Too Bad for Ag, Tariff Impacts; Climate and Agriculture
Too Bad for Ag In a surprise from the Biden Administration, Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh said that the U.S. should negotiate more sectoral...
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. All categories came in near expectations, making the report neutral. August placements at 1.98 mill...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0175/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Weaker Consumer Finances Darken Economic Outlook, Despite Interest Rate Cuts
The past two weeks have seen the typical influx of macroeconomic data releases, most of which helped prompt the Federal Reserve to issue its 50-bps interes...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you would...
Oilseed Highlights: Bouncing Off Seasonal Lows
The Market U.S. soybeans have a nearly $1/bushel advantage as Brazilian basis moves higher. The result is that last week’s export sales were substant...
How Not to Resuscitate; Micromanagement
How Not to Resuscitate The European Parliament rejected the Commission’s proposal to allow tolerance levels for pesticide residues on some imported f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 6-12, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 246,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 48 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0575/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the pre-report consensus analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 Sept...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. N...
High Cost of Food; Sick Man in Europe
High Cost of Food Gallop’s annual Work and Education survey found that Americans have soured on the restaurant and grocery business. They still love...
More Food, and Fewer Children
Few philanthropists are as focused on hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa than Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent billions of dolla...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real sig...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat fu...
Three Wheat Peculiarity
The December SRW and HRW contracts closed lower today, while December HRS added value. These three wheat contracts often move in unison, but not always. An...
New EU Commission; America First Channels Sovereignty
New EU Commission European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made known her nominees to run the government in Brussels and the trade and agricultur...
Ad Hoc Farm Bill in the Works?
The current underlying farm bill (extended for a year last year) expires in 13 days. Another extension is likely, but there is also some movement on Capito...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.125/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profi...
Future of EU Agriculture; Future of U.S. Agriculture
Future of EU Agriculture Mercosur: Newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated French opposition to a trade agreement with Mercosu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&...
SUSTAINS Act Under the Radar
Today is the final day to submit comments to the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) under a request for information (RFI) on the Sponsoring USDA...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters n...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The m...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and hi...
Hurricane Francine Energy Production Disruptions
The WTI Crude oil futures saw its third consecutive day of gains from the impacts of Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico and the contract remains up o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
WPI’s Post-WASDE Quarterly Corn, Soy Outlook
Now that the WASDE has come and gone, it’s time for the commodity market analyst community to argue about why USDA’s projections are wrong and...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 30-September 5, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 474,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 40 percent from the pre...
Market Commentary: USDA Confirms Record Corn, Soy Yields but Ending Stocks Fall
For a WASDE report that confirmed record-large corn and soybean yields, futures’ reaction to the data was relatively muted. Those hoping for a festiv...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Farm Bill Force; Black Sea Risks; Food Price Competition
Farm Bill Force A coalition of 300 agricultural groups sent a letter to Congressional leaders urging passage of a new farm bill. Some on Capitol Hill see i...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Trims Cattle Price Outlook
The big news on the livestock side of today’s WASDE was USDA’s reduction in the fed cattle price forecast. Prices for 2024 were trimmed by $3/...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Affirms a Sideways Market
The Market Today’s USDA WASDE report should drive discussion, but it was mostly neutral. The 20-day moving average has begun to rise and November soy...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Cana...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduc...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were m...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the WASDE Storm; Drought Concerns Support Wheat, Soybeans
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday as traders continued adjusting positions and preparing for the upcoming September WASDE report. Wheat was the upsid...
Agricultural Trade with Africa
Africa’s population is on a trajectory that could double its size by 2050 to 2.5 billion, or a quarter of the global populace. The West (U.S., EU, Ja...
Tariffs are Popular
Tariffs were a hot topic in last night’s debate between the two U.S. presidential candidates. Trump first imposed tariffs, which Harris calls a sales...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7925/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season conce...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises on Plains Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Sink in Pre-WASDE Trade
Trading at the CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with expectations for the WASDE differing significantly. For corn and soybeans, traders and analysts are all in on...
Farm Bill and Prop 12
Yesterday, WPI reported that several commodity organizations were in Washington to lobby on the farm bill. One of those groups was the National Pork Produc...
DEI and Trade; Barriers Against Real Emitters
DEI and Trade Today was Day 1 of the annual WTO Public Forum. The sessions were started many years ago as the institution's response to critics. Each year...
Meat Trade Holds Up
Hitting the downside of the cattle cycle and having a higher value product based on a strong U.S. dollar has certainly reduced, but the trade has held up r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s trade deficit in June dropped by 5.1 percent to $2.87 billi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Prepares for September WASDE
The CBOT started the week with a mood that was decidedly oriented towards preparing for the September WASDE report. Volume and price action were relatively...
Draghi versus Strategic Dialogue; Cooking the CVD Books
Draghi versus Strategic Dialogue Mario Draghi issued his long-awaited report on European competitiveness that had been requested by the European Commission...
Producer Groups Getting Restless on Farm Bill
The current farm bill – the extended Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 – expires in 10 days. With no practical window to pass a bill in 2024,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU is set to receive beneficial rains across its central region this week with some of that precipitation extending out into parts...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their p...
Market Commentary: Mixed Signals
There were lots of mixed pressures on the market today, and this week overall. Outside markets were key among them. Trading volume was modest today, except...
Jobs Report and How the Fed Will See It
Today’s jobs report was highly anticipated as a key benchmark before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month and expected t...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 23-29, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 36 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.67/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&n...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7475/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle and Beef Imports
High cattle and beef prices are supporting imports. First, cattle imports through July are up 22.6 percent compared to last year. Imports from Canada are u...
Oilseed Highlights: The Rally Has Capped Out
The Market In this holiday shortened trading week, November soybeans are up 23.5 cents (2.35 percent). The rally in prices has caused deliveries to increas...
Competitor Opportunities (Future of EU Agriculture Part II)
Yesterday, we took an initial and cursory look at the outcome of the EU’s Strategic Dialogue on farm support. Basically, it says move away from area...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular,...
Competitiveness versus Social Goals; Food to Energy
Competitiveness versus Social Goals The EU completed a strategic dialogue on the future of the Continent’s agriculture and despite the June elections...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8075/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...
Pulses Not Pulsing
The International Grains Council (IGC), Rabobank, and others have followed countries and companies moving into the pulses space. It is logical that plant-b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish te...
New Guidelines for Substantiating Meat and Poultry Label Claims
Last week, USDA released an updated guideline for label claims on meat products as they pertain to how livestock is raised. Specifics included are claims r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Business Economics on Ballot; Tariff Doublespeak
Business Economics on Ballot The American economy largely relies on large corporations for generating growth and wealth. That engine is under attack on num...
Sugar Price Response
The March 2025 No. 11 sugar contract rebounded last week but it is still down over 20 percent from its high. Analysts started the year expecting sugar pric...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range un...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn...
Market Commentary: Pre-Holiday Run-up Continued
This trading week marked a series of reversals, and the latest trend continued for the most part today. It was generally pre-holiday lower volume for corn,...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 2 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.01/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. N...
Thinking About 2025 Post Election Economy
There has been a spate of favorable economic news. Orders for durable goods were up 9.9 percent in July, mostly on orders for new aircraft. This was the bi...
No Right to Complain; Runaway Subsidies; Plastics and Cows
No Right to Complain Farmers in Nebraska, Iowa, Florida, and Alabama have no right to complain about Mexico’s attempt to ban GMO corn imports, nor GM...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher dem...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.96/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 16-22, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 8 percent from the previous wee...
Oilseed Highlights: Low Prices Yield Big Sales
The Market The soy complex followed last week’s modest gains with a larger move upward thus far this week. The funds are still near a record short bu...
No BS Labeling; Price Controls
No BS Labeling USDA issued notice yesterday that companies making environment and animal welfare claims on meat product packaging show more evidence of the...
U.S. and Canada Hogs and Pigs Inventory
USDA released the U.S. Canada Hog Inventory Report yesterday. The U.S. data is based on the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report which is as of the second quarte...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all...
Policy Adaptation; Policy Rejection
Policy Adaptation Europeans reacted to the regulatory over-prescriptiveness emanating out of Brussels by voting early this summer to reduce the number of G...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
U.S. Agriculture Recession
What do Germany and U.S. agriculture have in common? They may both be in recession. U.S. net cash farm income is in record decline, having fallen nearly 37...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Suggests CBOT Has Made its Near-Term Lows
The CBOT saw technical trade emerge and dominate the day, which sent corn, wheat, and soybeans higher after a weak overnight start. The day’s strengt...
Wheat 180; Thinking Small
Wheat 180 Concerned that wheat modified using biotech would cause the collapse of U.S. wheat’s overseas markets, growers wrote a policy in 2008 (late...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
Fiscal Policy Post Election
Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, policymaking in 2025 and beyond will play out in an environment shaped by the federal budget deficit and na...
Cold Storage Anomalies
USDA’s Cold Storage report for July showed the volume of beef and pork continuing to decline. There is a natural seasonal decline as the summer barbe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet pai...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and...
California LCFS Proposes Caps on Soybean and Canola Oil
This month the California Air Resources Board (CARB) issued a proposal to modify the Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS), including a cap on the use of soyoil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...