Export Sales and Shipments for April 19-25, 2024  Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 20,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from...

The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third st...

Food is First Victim Food comprises just 6 percent of all U.S. exports, but it is the first to receive retaliation in trade disputes. The latest example is...

Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commo...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...

Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from alm...

First notice day for May futures yielded heavy deliveries against the soyoil contract and, to a lesser extent, soybeans and soymeal. CBOT wheat also saw de...

The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustai...

Fertilizer Supplies: The U.S. Department of Commerce is recommending reduced tariffs on fertilizer imported from Russia, but increased duties on supplies f...

Olive oil is a niche product, comprising just under one percent of total global vegetable oil production. It is also higher priced, and only becoming more...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest...

The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correctio...

Carbon Wars The EU is moving forward with its plans for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and with its EU Deforestation Regulation. Despite clai...

On 15 April WPI reported: House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has stated that he will move a farm bill draft out of commit...

Plants such as beans, lentils and chickpeas are the nutritional rage. They are plant derived foods with higher protein content and thus their production an...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.085/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the...

Regional News  ProZerno forecasts Russia’s 2024 total grain production will hit 135-136 MMT, down from 144.9 MMT in 2023. Wheat production is fo...

Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat highe...

The Market Brazil has been winning the soybean export war, and imported biodiesel feedstock threatens domestic crush margins, but Chicago trading this week...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...

The Q1 2024 GDP was 1.6 percent, well below the pre-report consensus expectation of 2.4 percent, and down from 3.1 percent in Q1 2023 and 3.4 percent in Q4...

As WPI readers likely well know by now, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an inflation- and seasonally-adjusted 1.6 percent rate in Q1 2024, which...

Export Sales and Shipments for April 12-18, 2024  Wheat:  Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previo...

Thursday April 25, 2024...

Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and...

Most Apparent Solution The EU’s organic sector wants the bloc’s officials to take more action to ensure they achieve the target of 25 percent o...

Yesterday, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued a federal order requiring testing and reporting of highly pathogenic avian influen...

Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat re...

Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this does...

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Reigniting a Transatlantic Deal  Former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta is something of a policy rock star after authoring a report on the future...

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may le...

The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook...

Hecho en Mexico While outgoing Mexican president and populist AMLO tries to shutdown American farmers, the U.S. government just keeps giving to Mexico. The...

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output coul...

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Last Friday, 19 April, the EPA issued an emergency waiver for E15 to be sold through the summer driving season. The topline takeaway of that action is posi...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal...

Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading int...

Trading Waste Rich Westerners consumed so much plastic that even though landfills take much of it, their export of plastic waste now overwhelms Asia. Then...

Please refer to Summary Page...

Agriculture is both water and energy. As a prime input to food production, agriculture has long been characterized as the exporting of water. Now it is inc...

Regional News  Early-morning frosts were reported across Poland down to France as crops are reaching growth stages that are sensitive to cold. It&rsqu...

Wheat  Wheat from the 2024/25 campaign remains a topic of discussion in Argentina, with conflicting views regarding the area to be sown. The reality o...

The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supporti...

Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities,...

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Total inventory, placements and marketings all came in lower than the pre-report estimates, though t...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

• U.S. Cattle on Feed (in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head) totaled 11.8 million head on April 1, 2024 and was 1 percent above April 1, 20...

The Market Soybeans sharply rebounded on Friday after hitting a one month low the day before, likely on short covering. For the week, May soybeans lost 16...

Export Sales and Shipments for April 5-11, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 93,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the pr...

The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto t...

Transatlantic GI’ing Consumers Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic protest big business and their sacrilegious capitalism. Yet sometimes it is...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 Apri...

The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures dropping amid fund selling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and easing Russian FOB offers while corn drifte...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&...

A Washington International Trade Association discussion on trade policy with former officials from both the Trump and Biden administrations reinforced the...

USDA reports that per capita flour consumption in 2023 fell to the lowest level in 37 years. Flour production and exports were lower, but so were flour imp...

Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly st...

The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of...

Supply Chain Diversity EU policy experts have assembled a tome on the “State of Food Security in the EU.” The biannual report focuses on how to...

Fed cattle prices remain at record levels, but the market has been bearish with dropping futures and a weak cash market; prices dropped last week about $2...

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has proposed that anyone turning 15 years of age or younger in 2024 will be banned forever from purchasing cigarettes. E...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or...

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with a rising U.S. dollar and favorable weather for the U.S. and South America pressuring values. Some jitters...

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has stated that he will move a farm bill draft out of committee in May; the Ranking Mi...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&n...

Sparks to Fly U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai appears before House and Senate committees this week to testify on the Biden Administration’s 2...

Because pets are not just an emotional support but an economic burden, the change in global pet ownership is correlated with changes in GDP. The world has...

Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered...

Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WAS...

This week’s inflation reports have added some turbulence to the Federal Reserve’s approach to bringing the economy in for a soft landing. ...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...

The Market After dropping lower during the first four trading sessions of this week, May soybeans closed up on Friday by nearly 15 cents. However, that onl...

USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast a...

USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price...

USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced...

Export Sales and Shipments for March 29 to April 4, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales of 80,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previo...

When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA&...

Wrong at the Top We admit as private policy analysts that sometimes we add 1+1 and get three. It turns out top government officials can make the same mista...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close...

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced this week that it will not publish the July cattle inventory report. Further it will dop...

The CBOT was mixed on the last full trading day before the April WASDE with the corn and wheat markets seeing support and ending higher, while the soy comp...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.585/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...

Last year, the value of oil, energy, and agricultural commodities all fell. This caused reduced earnings at some large trading firms but, according to McKi...

Food and IT Arrogance The EU was supposed to issue an updated “protein strategy” early this year but it has been postponed until perhaps late t...

Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especia...

The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining cru...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...

Outcomes Not Competition  Darwin’s “survival of the fittest” and Ricardo’s “comparative advantage” are so century...

Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows...

E15: It is 9 April; by 1 May terminals that blend gasoline with ethanol need to be in compliance with summer-grade gasoline specifications that are effecti...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends th...

The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with traders mostly content to adjust positions heading into Thursday’s WASDE report. Corn and wheat futur...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...

The March labor market report was released last week, and both the report and the revisions for prior months were positive news on the employment front. Ho...

Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus ri...

Regional News  Tunisia purchased 75 KMT of soft wheat at prices of $233.25-329.90/MT C&F along with 50 KMT of hard wheat at $383.93-384.48/MT C&am...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

The CBOT was mostly higher on Friday with wheat futures leading the way on the heels of a rally in Paris wheat and concerning weather developments for the...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6725/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...

The war in the Ukraine has now entered year three, after initial predictions in February 2022 that it would last two weeks. As a general rule of thumb, the...

The Market On the one hand, soyoil rallied this week due to rising crude oil prices, and despite weakness in palm oil. The May soyoil contract added almost...

Export Sales and Shipments for March 22-28, 2024. Wheat:  Net sales of 16,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 95 percent from the previous we...

Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notab...

Non-Trade Representative U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is a lawyer by training, not an economist – and it shows. She is blaming globalizati...

The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) hearing is now closed. All final arguments had to be submitted by 1 April. From 23 August 2023 through 30 January 2...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it...

AI and Ag Public policy on artificial intelligence is a tricky topic. On the one hand, policymakers are trying to avoid their worst fears about its potenti...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Equities closed mixed for the day with gold up another 1.5 percent, the dollar down, oil and corn ended higher. Some large market players are concerned tha...

Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following globa...

The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “r...

As WPI reported on 26 March (see here), HPAI was discovered as the “mystery illness” affecting dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, and then New Mex...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.  May 2...

The global cocoa price hit $10,120/MT yesterday, triple its price last fall, and it is still unlikely to be at its apex. The cause is a sharp drop-off in p...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local whea...

May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...

The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Trade Negotiation Calendar This week will include U.S. and EU officials gathering in Brussels for the sixth, and potentially last session of the Trade and...

Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is...

As WPI reported last Thursday, the number of breeding sows on 1 March was 6.016 million head, down 2 percent from year ago levels. Part of that reduction i...

Regional News  Through 29 March, Ukraine has exported 35.593 MMT of grain for MY 2023/24, below the 37.382 MMT exported during the same period the pri...

Corn After a week without rain, Argentina’s corn harvest gained momentum and reached nearly 6 percent of the area. This had the consequent effect of...

Tomorrow, 29 March is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspec...