Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 26 November)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 26 November)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...