Recent Equities Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.6 from yesterda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...
Market Commentary
One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Market Commentary
For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other related matters, grain and soy markets were rather quiet overnight and again today. Price movements were measured with trading volume average a...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
No China Trade Deal?
The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent. This sent grain and o...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent average. Basically, it was a tale of two markets today. The grains were stronger, but the soy complex was hammered again. Weekly export sales fo...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
Market Commentary
The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are being heard. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is quoted as saying he hopes that negotiations will be wrapped up when Vice-Premier Liu and his team...
Market Commentary
The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muster up a Turnaround Tuesday. However, it was not to be. Renewed fund selling of corn and soybean contracts kept prices under pressure througho...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Market Commentary
Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however, and regularly scheduled reports such as the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report will be released then. U.S trade negotiators a...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and wheat, which took the worst beating, regained several cents. However, the rally effort was not able to generate any momentum, and it had fade...
Market Commentary
For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading volume. However, that did not adequately prepare traders for what happened during the day session. Wheat and corn markets were pummeled by mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales report, although it was not expected to cause any excitement. The spring blizzard pummeling Nebraska, South Dakota and southern Minnesota w...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Market Commentary
The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone before the report’s release, largely due to better-than-expected winter wheat conditions and a 2 percent planting progress for corn. That...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn steady and wheat lower. Overnight volume was average. This week’s big news will be USDA’s April WASDE (supply and demand), set to...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real deal. President Trump commented that “we’re not there yet” on a final agreement, and he also said farmers will be very happy...
Market Commentary
It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and President Trump will end with an announcement of a trade deal. Such an announcement would likely also include word of a meeting between Trump and Ch...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Market Commentary
There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soybeans holding a couple of cents higher and wheat turning down a like amount. That left corn in the middle and about unchanged. The day sessio...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially in corn. Last Friday’s USDA numbers were simply bearish for the corn market and neutral to slightly positive for wheat and soybeans. M...
Market Commentary
The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s separate analysis for details), and corn got hammered as soon as they were released. More optimistic talk about a trade deal with China did...
Market Commentary
As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents higher, wheat was 6-7 cents lower, and corn was near unchanged. This same price pattern was maintained through the first half of the day sess...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
Market Commentary
It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...
Market Commentary
The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...
Market Commentary
It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...
Market Commentary
Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was nothing in the WASDE that could be considered even slightly bullish. It was the opposite as ending supplies for U.S. wheat and corn were hig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading recess. Yesterday’s changes in open interest showed increases of 22,141 contracts of corn, 16,889 soybean contracts and 7,789 contracts o...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day session found wheat taking an unusual bounce higher, but corn managed only a small gain. Soybeans slipped a couple of cents, and soy produc...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day session. The U.S. and China are reportedly close to reaching agreement on at least the initial phases of a trade deal, and there might be a sig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw grain and soy prices leak slightly lower following Monday’s big losses. Notable was corn open interest, which fell nearly 69,000 contracts. No doubt, some of this was due to liquidation ahead of the first delivery intentions on Thursday. The volume of corn contracts...
Market Commentary
More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...
Market Commentary
In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today’s trading with wheat posting solid gains. The markets remain supported/optimistic based on (apparently) improving trade relations betw...
Market Commentary
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson presented the 2019 projections for grains, oilseeds, planted area and farm income. USDA foresees net farm...
Market Commentary
Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Measuring the effect of ASF on hog populations and feed consumption has become difficult if not impossible, but...
Market Commentary
Following the holiday, grain and soy markets began the overnight session just a bit firmer. That lasted until some selling pressure emerged in wheat, which led to prices being mixed at the trading recess with relatively good volume reported. However, it was not long after trading resumed that s...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes. News from talks in Beijing was sparse. President Trump apparently indicated he would agree to extend the negotiations for 60 days as long as...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Market Commentary
Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Today, though, there was a generally optimistic feeling about both that helped push the soybean and corn markets higher. The next round of trade...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...
Market Commentary
Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an example of his aggressive trade policies but did not mention its recent soybean purchases. He also asked Congress to approve the USMCA trade a...
Market Commentary
Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the February WASDE, are a month late has a great deal to do with it. The last WASDE before the government shutdown came out on 11 December, and mu...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets will want to see all the numbers in the 11 January USDA reports that are to be released this Friday before setting any new direction. U.S. equi...
Market Commentary
Agricultural and equity markets were all about China trade deal optimism today. President Trump was very busy tweeting very positive news about the situation, including China’s indication that it would soon buy another 5 MMT of soybeans as well as corn and wheat in future purchases. That...
Market Commentary
Please note: Late word from the White House meeting between the Chinese trade delegation and President Trump indicates that delegation leader Vice-Premier Liu He said that China would make (more) purchases of U.S. soybeans, presumably as part of the large amount of agricultural products China h...
Market Commentary
The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingly competitive. Some growth in export sales volumes was likely during that period, and traders have been anxious for the reports to resume. H...
Market Commentary
Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports chronologically each Tuesday and Friday until they are caught up. USDA/FAS is tentatively scheduled to release an export sales report on Thurs...
Market Commentary
Many were hopeful that last Friday’s actions to reopen the U.S. government plus some optimism that this week’s meeting with China will go well would have a positive impact on agricultural and equity markets, but just the opposite happened. Wheat, corn and soybean markets were lower...
Market Commentary
Markets didn’t do very much overnight in light volume. Corn and soybean futures were a penny higher with wheat down 1-2 cents. Markets then opened this morning with corn and soybeans steady and wheat 3-4 cents lower. Trading volume today was also very light. With no CFTC Commitment of Tra...
Market Commentary
It is always difficult to trade grain and soy futures based on politics and political rhetoric, and this truism is proving itself once again. Markets were lower yesterday on discouraging comments from various sources about the state of U.S.-Chinese negotiations. They were then buoyed early toda...
Market Commentary
It is now well into the second month of the partial government shutdown, and the blackout of the usual information from USDA continues. The only regular report still coming out is the weekly one from FGIS on the volumes of grain and soybeans inspected for export. This is made possible only by t...
Market Commentary
Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Market Commentary
For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weather. Even if one gives a bullish interpretation to all these factors, though, futures prices cannot go up forever. The soybean market discover...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet again overnight, although soybean futures showed some life early this morning and closed the night session a nickel higher with corn steady. Wheat finished down a penny and started today slightly weaker. The U.S. government is beginning the third week of the partial shutdown...
Market Commentary
Markets closed slightly higher in the Thursday night session on very light volume. They then opened firmer this morning with soybeans quickly jumping to gains of a dime or so. The U.S. government remains in a partial shutdown. To put that in perspective, 75 percent of it is funded and operation...
Market Commentary
Today’s CME closing grain market board was very unusual in the array of tiny price changes compared with that of yesterday. MGEX wheat had the biggest gains, finishing up 2.5-3 cents. Every other change was 1 cent or less except for a 1.25 cent gain for corn and Chicago wheat. While this...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Market Commentary
Markets finished the Sunday night session with corn and soybeans down 3 cents, while wheat markets were mostly steady. They opened almost exactly at those levels this morning, but corn and soybeans were trading near unchanged in the first half hour before turning lower again as the session proc...
Market Commentary
Markets ended the Thursday evening session with wheat down 6 cents, corn up a penny and soybeans steady. Volume was light and continued that way in today’s session, which was expected on the last full trading day before the Christmas holiday break. Markets will close at 1 pm (EST) Monday...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded modestly higher overnight following yesterday’s weakness, although trading volume was in a holiday mode. The market was pulled between improving South American weather forecasts and expectations of more Chinese sales announcements. Prices remained firm early i...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mixed overnight, having traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. As the early morning trading recess approached, wheat prices edged lower. However, soybean prices staying around the prior close in expectation that new large sales to China would be reported by US...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...
Market Commentary
Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...
Market Commentary
It is hard to keep track of the rumors flying around concerning Chinese plans to buy U.S. soybeans. Their most common thread has China buying 5-8 MMT, although there are several versions of this rumor. One has Sinograin and COFCO, a state-owned trading company, as the buyers since both would pr...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet Sunday night opening with markets all slightly lower. Trading volume was also average or less both last night and today. The only difference during today’s session was that corn, wheat and soybean futures all slowly gravitated toward unchanged. Weekly export inspections wer...
Market Commentary
The extremely wild gyrations in U.S. equity markets are a good indication that no one knows where the U.S./China trade dispute is headed as well as a sign that it is the rest of the economy that overshadows agricultural concerns. It has been nearly a week since the Trump/Xi dinner in Argentina,...
Market Commentary
The arrest in Vancouver, Canada of Meng Wanzhou, a high-ranking executive of giant Chinese cellular technology company Huawei, and her pending extradition to the U.S. on charges of violating Iranian sanctions pose a potential roadblock for U.S.-China trade negotiations. Huawei has close ties to...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government will be closed 5 December to honor the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States. Release of the government’ s various reports for the remainder of the week will be delayed by one business day as a result. Whatever excitement was created by last we...
Market Commentary
The markets expected an explosive Sunday night market following the great news about the Saturday meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi that has led to a 90-day truce on implementing new tariffs and also promised significant commodity purchases by China. Markets instead took a much more measu...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were all slightly higher overnight, led by 5-6 cent gains in soybeans. Markets opened stronger than that this morning and stayed that way throughout the session. There was optimism around the markets that the Saturday evening meeting in Argentina between the U.S. and China wil...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mostly lower overnight, although not greatly so considering the general strength across the board yesterday. The day session was dominated by whichever way the China trade winds seemed to be blowing. There were optimistic tweets from President Trump that a deal with Ch...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s tough-talking rhetoric from President Trump, in which he said he planned to go ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports, was apparently seen as posturing ahead of his Friday meeting with President Xi because it seemed to have no effect on overnight futures markets trad...
Market Commentary
Markets opened Sunday evening with wheat 3-4 cents higher, corn up a penny and soybeans a penny lower. Overnight volume was much better than last week. Markets then opened this morning with wheat up 5-6 cents, corn slightly lower and soybeans down 6-7 cents. Soybean futures, however, ran into h...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Market Commentary
With the U.S. stock market tanking again and worries over the global economy building, investors continued yesterday’s flight from risk. Nearly all commodity markets were lower, led by a nearly $4.00 loss for crude oil, and the “safe haven” U.S. dollar was up sharply. Amid all...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night markets opened almost exactly steady and traded that way for the first two to three hours. They then finished that session with wheat down 3-4 cents, soybeans down 6-7 cents and corn steady to a half-cent lower. The very light volume overnight extended into today’s early...
Market Commentary
It was another quiet night session Thursday evening with little price change in corn, wheat and soybean futures, and that dull pattern of trade didn’t change today. U.S. weather is basically cool and dry for the foreseeable future. That should allow the remaining fall harvests to finish a...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade reversed some of what occurred on Monday. Soybeans were higher, while grain prices were lower. Traders were chewing over news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been discussing trade issues with high-level Chinese officials. Optimists see such contact as setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower overnight following yesterday’s negative response to the somewhat bullish U.S. corn and wheat WASDE numbers. Both the U.S. and world soybean ending supply estimates were clearly bearish. Today’s session, however, saw the soybean market turn hi...
Market Commentary
Upon detecting the sharp increases in WASDE estimates of world corn and wheat production/stocks, computer trading programs launched sell orders that quickly sent futures prices tumbling (also noted in today’s separate analysis). Wheat futures prices fell 8-10 cents, soybean prices dropped...
Market Commentary
The midterm election has come and gone with the results about as predicted – a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. This will give the chattering classes (and President Trump) plenty to talk about, but the reaction of financial markets today belies a doom-and-gloom outlook. Grain and...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Markets Happy Election is Over
Post-midterm election, pre-WASDE commodity trading lacked the excitement of last night’s newscasts. Grains were flat/lower while the livestock complex remained mixed with hogs gaining on cattle. Grain futrues should have gotten a boost from the U.S. dollar’s drop today but the antic...
Market Commentary
There was apparently a lack of incentive to either buy or sell grain and soy futures in the overnight session, and that carried over into the day session as well. Whether or not today’s midterm election had anything to do with the quiet low volume trade is problematic. The fact is that el...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday night session steady to just slightly higher, but wheat and corn closed this morning down a penny with soybeans 3-4 cents lower. Then during most of today’s session, corn was steady to slightly higher with wheat and soybeans lower. The following two major events...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures were up as much as 18-20 cents overnight on follow-through buying from yesterday’s strength. The market, however, cooled off just before the session’s close on news reports that yesterday’s talk of renewed conversations with China weren’t really true. Cor...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
In overnight futures trading, the grains were a bit firmer with soybeans hovering on either side of unchanged. The only news of consequence was a sharp, unexpected decline of the U.S. dollar versus sterling and the euro. The EU sent some sort of a finalization date in late November for Brexit,...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. Chicago wheat traded as much as a dime higher with corn and soybeans up 3-4 cents and 6-8 cents, respectively. Overnight volume was nothing special, and none of the buying surfaced in today’s session. In fact, those same futures all t...
Market Commentary
Markets firmed up overnight with wheat trading 5-6 cents higher following yesterday’s big sell-off. Wheat then took off sharply higher in the first hour of trading this morning. The strength was attributed to a report that U.S. wheat was among the cheapest offers to Egypt. Corn followed w...
Market Commentary
Winter wheat futures prices were still under pressure during the overnight session, much as they have been nearly all week. That weakness kept the other markets on the defensive, and both corn and soybeans were down slightly at the trading recess. Price weakness widened and deepened during the...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume seemed slightly higher than has been usual recently, but price action for grain and soy futures markets was muted nevertheless. Corn prices held around unchanged, and wheat was fractionally lower. Most of the action occurred in the soy complex as overnight selling pushe...
Market Commentary
The Sunday evening markets held the same trend they have had for several weeks now. Corn and soybean futures were steady to slightly higher with wheat lower. They then gained a little more strength at this morning’s opening, and that brought wheat slightly closer to unchanged. U.S. Corn B...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight following yesterday’s declines, and they slipped a bit more after the weekly export sales report was released 15 minutes before that session closed. Corn and soybean exports sales were much lower than expected, but wheat sales were at the high end of the expec...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
Market Commentary
What Monday giveth, Tuesday taketh away – a colloquial way of saying that for grain and soy markets, today was Turnaround Tuesday. After Monday’s stout price rally, the turnaround began during the overnight session. Soybeans and corn traded quietly and mostly lower, while wheat trad...
Market Commentary
Markets were very quiet in the Sunday night session and closed with fractional losses in extremely light volume. Their tone changed at this morning’s opening with soybeans trading 5-7 cents higher as the soy complex led today’s rally. Corn and wheat followed, and no one was certain...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat the leader. However, wheat softened after the export sales report that was released today (delayed by the 8 October holiday) showed those sales were a little lower than last week. Meanwhile, corn and soybean export sales were also slig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade volume was limited as the market awaited release of USDA’s October WASDE. Corn and wheat were a penny or so lower with soybeans down 4-5 cents, which all tracked with expectations of a bearish report. When the report came out at noon (EDT) today, the immediate conclusion w...
Market Commentary
Fear of the impact of higher interest rates sent the U.S. stock market and nearly every commodity market spinning lower today. And as traders contemplate tomorrow’s October WASDE, they are well aware of the bearish tone of the August and September WASDEs. The assumption is that the Octobe...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets slumbered through the overnight session with the October WASDE two days away. There was little movement in wheat and corn prices, and soybeans traded mostly lower in limited volume. Market watchers generally expect the WASDE to show a slight increase in the corn and soybea...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night session traded slightly higher until prices turned lower early this morning, led by wheat. Markets then opened the day session lower and turned weaker, probably for the following reasons: Rains will be heavy across much of the Corn Belt over the next three to four days, but th...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet trading session overnight. Corn, soybeans and wheat were all slightly higher with closing gains of a penny, 2 cents and 2-3 cents, respectively. The week ended with Washington (and the rest of the country) watching the Senate’s Supreme Court vote today. The monthly U.S. job...
Market Commentary
Low volume, narrow trading ranges and slightly firmer prices characterized trade in the overnight session for grains and the soy complex. The heavy rains due over the Plains and parts of the Corn Belt will restrict harvest progress with country movement already limited enough that corn premiums...
Market Commentary
This was an interesting start to October and the new quarter. Markets were quiet overnight with little price movement. However, that changed significantly at today’s openings with corn and soybeans turning sharply higher. Meanwhile, wheat futures continued to hover around unchanged. There...
Market Commentary
There was much for the markets to deal with today. It was the last day of September and the last day of the quarter; the drama over the Supreme Court nomination continues to play out in Washington; and there is still uncertainty over any possible shift to E15 from E10 that would increase ethano...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices turned a bit lower overnight as traders prepared for USDA’s stocks, small grains and winter wheat acreage reports to be released tomorrow at 12:00 noon (EDT). The spot soybean and corn contracts were down about 1.5 cents, and Chicago wheat was off about 4 cent...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures featured higher prices and modest volume. Soybeans were the leader with the November contract up about 7.5 cents. The grains were higher but more timidly so. Chicago wheat was up about 4 cents, and corn’s gains were limited to fractions. Trading vo...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade showed mixed results as the session recessed. Soybeans were higher by a few cents, but corn and wheat traded lower. The world oilseed sector is being supported by surging crude oil prices, which saw Brent crude trade as high as $82.55 after OPEC decided to leave its prod...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures were all lower through most of the Sunday evening session. However, wheat futures turned slightly higher early this morning and continued that trading pattern when the day session opened, closing with gains of up to 5.25 cents. Soybeans continue to bear the brun...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were lower overnight with corn trading fractionally higher. The big question today was whether yesterday’s strength in corn and soybean futures was anything more than a technical bounce off of recent lows or instead a reaction to bullish news. Corn maintained som...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Market Commentary
Pre-WASDE positioning sent the grains complex lower today, while livestock futures were under pressure from profit taking and lackluster cash markets. Fund managers are worried tomorrow’s report will be a repeat of the August WASDE and are paring back any long positions. It’s tough...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to lower overnight in very light volume. Weekly export sales, delayed a day because of last Monday’s holiday, came in about as expected. There were no daily sales announced today. Meanwhile, the U.S. is on the eve of big corn and soybean harvests. The super wet parts o...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade continued to be light in volume and devoid of excitement overnight with limited price movement. This dull pattern carried over to the day session as well. Wheat futures moved lower during the day, a response to ongoing fund liquidation, the lack of export demand, and...
Market Commentary
Early firming of prices in the overnight session had some traders hoping that Turnaround Tuesday had been postponed until Wednesday due to the holiday. However, it was not to be. After the beating they took yesterday, wheat futures did hold a few cents higher at the trading recess, but corn and...
Market Commentary
Following the long weekend, corn and soybean futures were quiet with little change overnight. However, wheat futures suffered double-digit losses on wire service reports that Russian ag ministry officials told exporters that putting restrictions on grain and wheat exports would not be necessary...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices posted modest gains during the overnight session. They were led again by wheat, which followed up on Wednesday’s big rally. The volatile Euronext wheat futures also surged ahead, adding to yesterday’s big move. As CME day session trading resumed, however, the Eu...
Market Commentary
In recent years, the last week of August and/or the first week of September have been the best bets for the timing of seasonal lows for CME grain and soy futures prices. The reason for this is that for the last several years, prospects for very large harvests of corn and soybeans about to get u...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower again in the Sunday night session as well as throughout today. Corn and soybeans were still suffering a hangover from the Pro Farmer tour’s big estimates. Funds remain long Chicago wheat futures and have gotten crushed, and they continued to exit long positions today. U...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets traded a bit better overnight with wheat markets again lower. China’s “low-level” trade delegation went home with no evidence that any progress had been made in the trade talks. The Trump administration still says it is days (maybe hours) from announci...
Market Commentary
As of this writing, there is no word from the two-day U.S./China trade meeting that should be about to wrap up. No one expects an agreement to suspend hostilities, but the two sides will hopefully agree to more talks. That the tit-for-tat tariffs on $16 billion worth of goods, part of the first...
Market Commentary
USDA’s aid package for farmers, whose income prospects have been impacted by the administration’s use of higher tariffs as trade policy, is reportedly now being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and it should be ready for unveiling on 24 August. Unconfirmed repo...
Market Commentary
Quiet overnight trading saw weaker wheat prices, while corn and soybeans traded narrowly on either side of unchanged. Winter wheat futures fell below technical support, bringing on long liquidation by noncommercials that accelerated during the day session. Chicago wheat finished today 10.75-15...
Market Commentary
Wheat and corn were lower overnight, and the soy complex was firm. The weakness in wheat was caused by a bigger-than-expected fund long position coupled with a chance for rain in eastern Australia. Soybeans were firm on continued trade optimism. Corn was confused over whether to follow wheat or...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight and again today. The night session ended with wheat up 9-11 cents, corn steady to a half-cent higher and soybeans down 5 cents. There was none of yesterday’s excitement in the soy complex today. It seems the trade settled back to thinking it might still take a...
Market Commentary
Yesterday was a macro “risk -off” day as fears that currency and debt issues for emerging economies might spread widely enough to jar world economic growth. Commodities were hard hit by concerns that an economic slowdown would shrink demand for raw materials. Today turned into a &ld...
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower in the Sunday evening session as the hangover from last Friday’s bearish USDA corn and soybean numbers continued. The wheat numbers that day were actually supportive, but wheat was the weakest market overnight and again today with double-digit losses throughout most of...
Market Commentary
At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was quiet as expected with traders looking to reduce risk and position in preparation for tomorrow’s mid-session WASDE release. Wheat and soybeans were lower overnight, but corn held on to small gains. Dalian soy complex and corn futures were once again quite strong, while...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidation of presumably profitable long positions. New short positions just ahead of Friday’s WASDE would require that the sellers have stron...
Market Commentary
President Trump has called for 25 percent tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, possibly as early as late September, and this has thrown a wet blanket over the soybean futures market. No one knows what will happen or when, but the assumption is that the hoped-for resumption of off...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big soybean rally was sponsored by a press report indicating the possibility that the U.S. and China might resume a formal discussion on the current trade conflict. Overnight price action suggested that the rally was overdone as soybean futures gave back more than one-third of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices firmed overnight as the leading weather models indicated the return of above-normal temperatures and dry conditions to portions of the Midwest during the first two weeks of August. Although crop maturity is generally eight-10 days ahead of average, heat and dryness during e...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight. They were led again by wheat, which then exploded to gains of 15-20 cents at this morning’s openings. Corn and soybeans were higher, but there was no real excitement in those markets. Trading volume was much better than last Friday. In a change from late las...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight and today. Volume was very light for corn and soybeans but better than average for Chicago wheat. The markets actually traded better than expected after yesterday’s late break from strong early day trade. Funds were light sellers of corn and wheat while...
Market Commentary
News that the U.S. and the EU pulled back from a potentially escalating trade war gave financial markets a boost late yesterday, and the agreements between President Trump and EU President Juncker included a promise that the EU would buy more U.S. soybeans. Algorithmic trading programs read the...
Market Commentary
The sharp jump in world wheat prices on the back of wheat production losses in Russia, the EU, Australia and elsewhere along with the government’s $12 billion aid package for farmers harmed by retaliation against President Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs are the topics of the d...
Market Commentary
The promised program to aid farmers hurt by the trade conflict with China and others will be $12 billion, according to USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue at a press briefing this afternoon (see Trade Mitigation Funds for details). President Trump is scheduled to speak in Iowa tomorrow, and he will no...
Market Commentary
It was a very quiet Sunday night session across soybeans, wheat and corn. The markets finished with corn up 1 cent, beans steady, Chicago wheat 3 cents higher, KC up 4-5 cents and Minneapolis with gains of 10-11. That pretty well summed up today’s action with the exception of a few spurts...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight, but the wheat markets took off higher again this morning. KC and Chicago traded gains of 10-15 cents most of the day before closing up 10-12.75 cents. Meanwhile, Minneapolis was trading 15-20 cents higher and finished up 14-18.25 cents. Corn aga...
Market Commentary
The quietude of yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets continued in the overnight trading session. Volume and price movement were limited with nothing significant to inject trading interest or volume into the markets, and prices stayed close to Wednesday’s closes. At this morning...
Market Commentary
After featuring active trade and higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, grain and soybean markets paused to catch their breath today. Volume was restrained, and limited price action kept values near Tuesday’s closes. Following those rare occasions during the past few months when markets ral...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices firmed overnight, in part because USDA dropped weekly condition ratings for corn and soybeans further than the trade expected. Another element of support came from FGIS export inspections showing that demand for soybeans and corn remains at a high pace despite trade conflic...
Market Commentary
Today is Friday the 13th, and the week ended accordingly. Soybeans were down again overnight and continued lower today. Corn joined soybeans, while wheat was independently firm. The news is the same. No trade deals appear to be on the horizon, and that means no speculative buyers are likely yet...
Market Commentary
While awaiting today’s WASDE, grains and soy markets traded a bit higher overnight as they tried to recover at least a small portion of yesterday’s trade-related beating. Soybeans and Chicago wheat were both up about 6 cents, and corn gained around 3 cents. Yesterday’s steep l...
Market Commentary
The bell to start the next round of the escalating U.S. trade scuffle with China rang late last evening with news that the Trump administration is preparing a new list of $200 billion worth of imported goods from there, which it proposes to subject to a 10 percent tariff. The list will be publi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading pushed corn and soybean prices mildly lower with more pronounced weakness in wheat. Good weather, high weekly crop condition ratings and expectations that USDA’s July WASDE (to be released Thursday) will be bearish discouraged buyers and kept pressure on futures prices...
Market Commentary
The trade worries won’t go away. Even though markets ignored the imposition of tariffs last Friday, they were back to selling today in relatively light trading volume. Two other negative market factors to start this week were the following: USDA will release its July crop production upda...
Market Commentary
U.S. soybean, corn and wheat markets finished the night session up 1-2 cents despite the U.S./China trade war becoming a reality overnight. However, the soybean and soymeal markets opened strong today and moved to big gains by midmorning, putting the trade issues behind for at least today. Corn...
Market Commentary
Today’s post-holiday market was not the frenzied affair that sometimes follows the 4th of July. There was no overnight session (due to the holiday), and trading seemed relatively subdued when it began this morning. It remained quiet even though wheat and soybeans closed with notable price...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy markets closed early today for the U.S. holiday and will not reopen until 9:30 a.m. (EDT) Thursday. They are often quite volatile on the first trading day following the 4th of July due to the importance of weather conditions and forecasts for the rest of the month as well as d...
Market Commentary
Markets traded just slightly better overnight and found additional buying ahead of the USDA reports this morning. Wheat markets led the pre-report rally, trading as much as 20-25 cents higher in KC and Chicago. Corn followed wheat for a bit with 6-7 cent gains, and soybeans were also strong. Th...
Market Commentary
It is the last full trading day before the sometimes-eventful June planting and quarterly stocks report. Based on the average trade estimates of acreage and stocks, tomorrow’s reports are viewed as a quiet affair. Corn and soybean acres are expected to be slightly higher than the March nu...
Market Commentary
After having announced them earlier, the Trump administration late Tuesday apparently decided not to impose special restrictions on Chinese investments in/access to U.S. technology in the name of national security. Rather, it will rely on the limits and restrictions already in place that apply...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a quiet, low volume affair with only limited price changes for grains and the soy complex. As the day session progressed, however, wheat ran out of friends who then also deserted (once again) the soybean market. Wheat’s downturn was led by KC HRW, in which funds stil...
Market Commentary
Markets were all lower overnight, and that pattern accelerated throughout today’s session with wheat, corn and soybeans all suffering big losses at the close. The two primary factors in today’s markets are the following: Corn Belt weather looks wet for the first half of this week...
Market Commentary
It was a peaceful night session with corn and wheat showing very little change. Meanwhile, soybeans were 7-8 cents higher with meal up $2.00-3.00. Markets will probably be in idle mode until there are more developments on trade issues either with China or NAFTA. They seem to have factored in th...
Market Commentary
Welcome to summer! Led by soybeans, which eased about 6 cents lower, trading during the overnight session found prices with a lower bias. The grains were mostly lower also but did not stray far from Wednesday’s closes. On the trade front, the war of words continues. However, there is no s...
Market Commentary
After trade war fears sank grain and soy futures yesterday, the overnight session opened cautiously. Prices edged a bit higher, but trading was tentative and volume was low. Yesterday’s emotional lashing left markets in a highly oversold state. However, without a signal that further discu...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
Market Commentary
The rout continues. Grains and soy complex futures prices fell again overnight, and they continued to drop throughout the day session. Interestingly, corn and wheat were relatively weaker than soybeans even though the latter have a much bigger stake in the U.S./China tariff situation. The likel...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures started out firmer on follow-through from yesterday’s post-report rally. However, that did not last long. The market’s attention soon returned to trade issues when Washington sources indicated the Trump administration is preparing to impose the long-discussed t...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to denuclearize North Korea and for the U.S. to cease joint military exercises with South Korea. As always, the “devil is in the details,&r...
Market Commentary
Markets were relatively quiet Sunday night, but corn and soybeans turned decidedly weaker today to finish with big losses. Funds started this week long everything except soyoil. They’ve had these positions for quite some time and evidently decided that today was the time to either get out...
Market Commentary
Profit taking, good weather and zero technical support left the CBOT to trade lower today with only corn managing to close a few cents higher. With the ongoing trade issues and increasingly high odds of good U.S. corn and soybean crops again, bullish news is tough to come by. Brazil’s sec...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trading found prices around unchanged or slightly firmer except for wheat futures, which marched off to double-digit gains. There is more talk of deteriorating conditions for winter wheat in southern Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan with overly dry conditions also moving into Po...
Market Commentary
Futures were higher overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that China had agreed to purchase $70 billion of U.S. energy and agriculture products. Once again, this amounted to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation, and corn and soybean futures turned lower this afterno...
Market Commentary
In a follow-up to Monday’s beating, grain and soy prices were slightly lower in early overnight trade. However, they managed to recover and were a bit higher as trading recessed. Price action was mixed during the day session in quiet, low volume trade, but prices eventually turned higher...
Market Commentary
Today’s news was dominated by trade matters that potentially could be important for grain and soy markets. President Trump declared that beginning tomorrow (Friday), he would impose tariffs on steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent) imports from Mexico, Canada and the EU that were ea...
Refining the Volcker Rule
If there is a common thread tying together the vast jungle of complex banking regulations that emerged from the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial market reform legislation, it is that large and small banks complain about the costs and inefficiencies forced on them by compliance requirements, and that p...
Market Commentary
Profit taking and surprisingly good crop condition ratings sparked a sell-off at the CBOT today. The overnight session featured losses of 3 cents for corn, 5.75 cents for soybeans and 8 cents for SRW wheat. The day session featured more of the same with bears testing key technical points for gr...
Market Commentary
The overnight session that started Monday evening was the first opportunity to trade CME grain and soy futures since Friday. Wheat futures traded higher, but corn and soybean prices started out unchanged to lower. The latter gradually turned green as well in response to an array of threatening...
Market Commentary
Markets opened the Thursday evening session marginally softer after yesterday’s weakness. Corn and wheat pushing to new highs yesterday morning and then selling off when little fresh buying showed up provided a very weak-looking technical pattern. Markets finished the night session with s...
Market Commentary
The general grain and soy rally surged ahead overnight with soybeans and wheat reaching double-digit gains, while more timid corn futures managed to climb 3-4 cents. Speculation that China may commit to purchase a large amount of additional U.S. ag products and a list of weather concerns around...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded both narrowly and slightly lower overnight in diminished volume. A flurry of sometimes contradictory statements from administration trade officials, including the inevitable tweets from President Trump, left many observers wondering just what had been agreed to with...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s active trade-driven session saw the huge unwinding of long soybean—short corn/wheat spreads, thanks to the agreement to suspend threats of tariffs from both the U.S. and China. The overnight session found corn and wheat futures trying to bounce back from being the sell l...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were firmer overnight with wheat the leader. Winter and spring wheat futures traders seemed inspired by wheat’s ability to avoid the downdraft that took corn and soybean values lower Wednesday. Also, press reports noted dry conditions in the western Canadian Prairies...
Market Commentary
The lack of any news from the U.S./Chinese trade meeting was disconcerting. Mostly as a result of this, soybeans were unable to build on Tuesday’s late rally in overnight trade. This was so even though wheat and corn were mildly firmer overnight. No news about the trade discussions is not...
Market Commentary
It was an erratic and somewhat volatile day of trade for grain and soy futures. Financial markets also experienced an uptick in volatility, and this may have rubbed off on grains and the soy complex. Overnight trade was relatively calm, but prices across the board were slightly firmer. They wer...
Market Commentary
Markets were all running for cover last night and today following what was considered a disappointing response to yesterday’s USDA reports. They actually contained a few bullish surprises, and the markets did try to respond by trading higher immediately after their release. However, they...
Market Commentary
Trading during the overnight session was quiet with moderate volume ahead of this morning’s WASDE with its projections for 2018/19. Prices were generally firmer with soybeans up 4-5 cents while corn and wheat futures posted smaller gains. During the day session, the market did very little...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy traders are in a waiting game for news on Chinese trade and NAFTA as well as the 10 May release of USDA’s WASDE. The May report may not be the most important of the year, but it will certainly be one of the most interesting with USDA’s plunge into projections for U.S...
Market Commentary
As most expected, President Trump announced the U.S. was withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran with the intention of resuming sanctions against it and the countries that buy its oil. So certain were analysts that President Trump would do this that the actual announcement was anticlim...
Market Commentary
Markets started lower Sunday night, and that weakness accelerated into widespread selling across the wheat and soybean markets today. Some of the same bearish factors took center stage again, including the following: Lack of progress in the trade talks with China Possibility of late week rain...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Thursday night session mixed and traded that way until news the U.S. trade delegation to China was headed home without any positive announcements. Remember the markets closed better yesterday on rumors the trade discussions were going well with possibly favorable news today...
Market Commentary
Grain and, especially, soy futures played a waiting game overnight and again during the day session, anticipating some news from the trade discussions between high level U.S. and Chinese officials that began Thursday in Beijing. According to press reports, the first day’s meetings broke w...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were in a corrective mode overnight. Prices for soybeans, wheat and corn edged a few cents lower after Tuesday’s broad May Day rally. Soymeal was lower, but soyoil traded higher in very mild reversals of yesterday’s action. Trading volume was light with many As...
Market Commentary
Much of the world has been enjoying the May Day holiday, which probably limited overnight trading volumes. Overnight futures prices found soybeans and wheat trading a bit lower, while corn hung around unchanged. Trading during the day came under the influence of diverse weather conditions and f...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally firm overnight. That “firmness” then blossomed into a full-fledged, general rally this morning, led by big gains in the soy complex. This morning’s Stats Canada planting report was partly responsible as it showed intended canola and soybean acres were mu...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade found corn and wheat futures in a mild retreat from yesterday’s big gains, while soybeans were quietly higher. Trading volume was rather light. China and much of Europe will celebrate their May Day holiday tomorrow through Monday. Word that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U...
Market Commentary
Follow-through from Tuesday’s rally sent grain and soybean prices higher overnight in moderate volume. Word late Tuesday that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, possibly accompanied by U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, would go to Beijing to discuss economic and trade issues was taken a...
Market Commentary
Small-scale liquidation continued in overnight trade, although trading volume declined from recent overnight sessions. Price changes were minimal, but after some back and forth movement, they trended slightly lower pretty much across the board by the trading recess this morning. After the halfw...
Market Commentary
Markets surprised the trade a bit and opened with small gains Sunday night, led by KC wheat despite the rainfall across portions of the southern Plains hard red winter wheat region. Although that area’s predicted weekend rain event did occur, coverage and amounts were not as good as adver...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Market Commentary
Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, though, and that held corn down as well. Last Friday night’s military action in Syria had no apparent effect on either U.S. commodity mar...
Market Commentary
Markets all started easier Thursday evening and finished the night session mixed with corn down less than a penny, soybeans up 1-2 cents, KC and Chicago wheat down 6-7 cents, and Minneapolis wheat 1-2 cents lower. This pattern didn’t change throughout today’s session except for soyb...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the big mover during the overnight session. Its direction was downward as weather models indicated that after another seven days of dry conditions, 19-21 April will offer a fair chance of moderate rain showers over parts of Kansas. Amounts are supposed to be heavy enough to cheer up w...
Market Commentary
A war of words between the U.S. and Russia over a possible U.S. missile strike against the Syrian regime, intended as a response to its purported gas attack on civilians, is raising geopolitical tensions. Yesterday’s calming conciliatory remarks on trade from Chinese President Xi have pro...
Market Commentary
Market participants had plenty to think about today. In an anticipated speech, China’s President Xi said that he favored cutting tariffs on auto imports and other products, protecting intellectual property rights of foreign companies, and increasing imports as a way of expanding balanced...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, led by the soy complex with wheat also strong and corn firm. Weekend news shows seemed to hint that there will be no trade war with China. The Chinese president will make an important address to his nation Tuesday, and markets will be watching very closely. USDA a...
Market Commentary
Last night’s trade appeared to be headed toward steady or perhaps slightly higher openings following yesterday’s rebound in corn and wheat futures markets, and as soybeans cut their early day losses significantly at the close. The other “positive” was that the U.S. equit...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade saw grain and soy prices continue the recovery that began during Wednesday’s day session, which followed the major sell-off immediately after China’s announcement very early that morning of planned import tariffs on 106 products, prominently including soybeans. Soybe...
Market Commentary
Yesterday the Trump administration detailed a list of about 1,300 items imported from China that it intends to subject to a 25 percent tariff to offset $50 billion of losses attributed to that country’s theft of U.S. intellectual property. China’s response was surprisingly quick wit...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big trading volume and price declines were tempered overnight with soybeans and wheat turning a bit higher while corn mostly stayed within fractions of Monday’s closes. Chicago and KC wheat prices were up in response to USDA’s first national winter wheat crop condi...
Market Commentary
Markets had strong buying in the Sunday night session following the three-day Easter weekend and USDA’s bullish corn/soybean acreage estimates of last Thursday. The overnight rally then quickly lost steam this morning, partially due to ideas that those USDA acreage estimates were perhaps...
Market Commentary
Low volume and mixed price movement for grains and the soy complex characterized both overnight trading and the day session. Most traders seem to be positioned where they want to be ahead of Thursday’s USDA stocks and prospective planting reports. If they are not, it was (and is) too late...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The fireworks were in the livestock futures markets today as lean hog futures pulled an impressive reversal on big trading volumes. This support spilled over into the cattle markets, though bullishness was more subdued there. Grains and oilseeds traded a steady session ahead of tomorrow’s...
Market Commentary
In contrast to the heavy volume during the Sunday/Monday overnight session, trade was very light last night and in the early morning. Futures price action was mixed with soybeans and corn up slightly and wheat just a bit lower. The low trading volume carried over to the day session as did...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight in very good trading volume for a night session. U.S. equity markets were expected to recover some of Friday’s big losses, and weather across Argentina and the southern Plains is still a problem. U.S. equities were super strong today. The weekend news program...
Market Commentary
Overnight volume was big with markets down significantly on the heels of the U.S. equity markets’ collapse after commodity trading closed yesterday. It is all about the announced tariffs against some products from China and how this pending trade war might interfere with U.S. soybean and...
Market Commentary
The weekly USDA/FASS export sales report has been delayed until tomorrow (Friday) morning because of the winter storm that forced the closure of government offices in Washington, DC yesterday. Grain and soy prices were slightly firmer during the overnight session with winter wheat leading the w...
Market Commentary
To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate a quarter-percent to a still historically low 1.75 percent. This increase, the sixth since December 2015, was approved unanimously by the voting members of the committee. T...
Market Commentary
During overnight trading, grain and soy markets tried to recover from the beating they took on Monday but with very limited success. Prices were firmer, although it was only by a few cents except for the corn market’s recovery that was measured in fractions. They continued to trade on bot...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices generally firmer in something of a recovery from Wednesday’s lingering weakness. Soybeans and MGEX spring wheat were the leaders, trading up 6-8 cents and about 7 cents, respectively. KC HRW was about 4 cents higher with Chicago wheat gaining...
Market Commentary
A swirl of rumors about possible new trade actions against China from the Trump administration provided a backdrop for today’s grain and soy futures markets. During overnight trade, those rumors at first seemed to limit volume and keep prices from moving much in any direction. Corn was mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action saw grain and soy prices continue the firmer trend set by the rebound from earlier losses late in Monday’s day session that was enough to maintain positive technical support. Soybeans and winter wheat were a few cents higher, and corn gained a fraction of a cent ove...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft in the Sunday evening session. There was light rainfall across 20-25 percent of Argentina with another chance for showers later this week. The forecast for the southern Plains still looks warm and dry, but KC wheat futures were the weakest overnight. Concerns over the expandin...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and turned much more so today with soybeans and wheat leading the charge lower. Among the numerous bearish factors affecting markets today were the following: There’s an unexpected chance for rain showers across Argentina, although the actual amounts and cover...
Market Commentary
President Trump signed a proclamation this afternoon establishing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum over the objection of many Republicans in Congress and the U.S. business community, excluding steel companies. Canada, the largest exporter of steel to the U.S., and Mexico will be temporari...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets traded lower overnight and mostly lower again during the day session, reflecting the growing uncertainties facing traders. There is Thursday’s March WASDE and expectations that USDA will lower estimates of Argentine soybean and corn production plus Brazilian...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Ag commodities trading was quiet today as the markets wait for USDA’s WASDE report tomorrow. Most CBOT products traded both sides of unchanged before closing lower, except for the soy complex which broke lower early in the day and failed to recover. There is growing sentiment wondering if...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was a low volume affair with corn and the soy complex doing very little in either direction. Meanwhile, winter wheat markets gave back some of yesterday’s gains. There was little by way of fresh news overnight. Argentina and Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul remain ve...
Market Commentary
Markets were largely neutral overnight. Ongoing dry weather in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains (hard red winter wheat) was offset by fears of just where the world trade discussions will go. The markets opened mostly steady today, but the KC wheat market eventually broke out higher. Soybe...
Market Commentary
Soybeans finished the night session strong with 8-9 cent gains, while wheat was mixed and corn a penny higher. Volume of trade was very big. Markets opened today with a much weaker tone in wheat with corn and soybeans mixed. The lack of follow-through from yesterday and the night session was at...
Commodities are in Vogue Again
In the 1840s, the ad hoc trading of physical lots of wheat, corn, rye, oats and hay on a street corner in Chicago eventually became transaction-based on standardized terms. That development allowed traders to buy and sell physical quantities of grain for delivery at specified times in the futur...
Market Commentary
Green was the color of the day for grain and soy markets. Prices wavered a bit at the opening of overnight trading, but they soon began to push higher. Some of yesterday’s weather models had hinted at possible showers over parts of Argentina’s crop areas next week, but later model r...
Market Commentary
Tomorrow (28 February) is the first day for delivery intentions against March futures contracts. As of the close yesterday, more than 105,000 contracts of March corn and about 72,000 contracts of March soybeans remained open. The grain, soybean and soymeal markets are heavily overbought and oug...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly higher overnight in relatively light trading volume. Corn was a penny higher, and soybeans were up 3-4 cents as were KC and Chicago wheat. The release of USDA’s 2018/19 U.S. supply and demand numbers as the night session was still trading didn’t change anything...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy complex futures had low volume and was quiet without much price movement. Soybeans were a couple of cents lower, but corn and wheat were about unchanged. There was little fresh news to trade on. Weather forecasts for South America and the U.S. were about unchang...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets sold off well below the highs reached earlier in the session and closed unenthusiastically with a weak tone. The late session softness seemed to give traders reason to pause, and price action overnight was considerably more muted. In fact, prices...
Market Commentary
Over the long weekend, rainfall in Argentina was limited to portions of Buenos Aires as the rest of the main crop areas remaining dry. That plus a forecast of little (if any) rain for the next 10 days set the stage for soymeal and soybeans to gap higher when the Monday night session opened. Bot...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to tick higher soon after trading resumed for the day session. Support was offered by agreement among all three major weather models that the so...
Market Commentary
The overnight session found prices trading mostly lower, which was in line with selling late Tuesday that took prices down to closes that were mostly well below session highs. No doubt some of that late selling was profit taking after the recent rally. However, open interest increases for soyme...
Market Commentary
Trading during the overnight session turned much quieter in terms of price action and volume versus Sunday night and Monday. Prices traded both sides of yesterday’s closes, but they seldom strayed more than 2 cents. Today is the Fat Tuesday Carnival celebration in Brazil and throughout So...
Market Commentary
The markets started with good gains in the Sunday evening session, led by double-digit increases in soybeans on the heels of a sharp rally in soymeal futures. Overnight volume was also good with over 40,000 contracts of corn and 36,000 contracts of soybeans. Chicago wheat volume exceeded 20,000...
Market Commentary
The general chaos that has plagued the U.S. financial markets this week is having a negative spillover impact on more markets. Crude oil dropped more than $3.00/barrel at one point today and is now trading back below $60.00. The Dow and S&P also again had volatile trading. Bottom pickers ap...
Market Commentary
As the markets waited for USDA’s February WASDE at noon (EST) today, overnight trading volume declined rather sharply from its heavy level earlier this week. Corn, wheat and soybeans traded both sides of yesterday’s closes overnight. At the early morning trading break, soybeans were...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures opened the overnight session mostly stronger on follow-up momentum and the bullish technical signals generated by Tuesday’s price action. Trading volume was heavy once again. Grain and soy traders seemed unfazed by financial market volatility as evidenced by Dow futu...
Market Commentary
The overnight trading session for grains and the soy complex opened with the backdrop of the biggest single-day decline of the Dow ever. It was not the biggest percentage loss, however. World stock markets were also trading down very sharply with most global stock indices giving up all of their...
Market Madness
The stock market fell nearly 1,200 points yesterday, the Dow’s largest decline in a single day and the biggest drop since 2011, a very volatile year. Monday’s bear market was the equivalent of almost a 4.6 percent loss, which is far from a record in percentage terms. There were 21 d...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets opened lower overnight, and they traded that way throughout the day session. A number of factors contributed to this trend today, including: The forecast from last week for some rains (not expected to be heavy) across Argentina by this weekend hasn’t chang...
Market Commentary
The corn, soybean and wheat markets were lower overnight with the latter two suffering the greatest losses in moderate volume. That pattern of weakness did not change in today’s session. There is a chance for some helpful rainfall across Argentina in the extended forecasts, although it wi...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s corrective price action extended into the overnight session with soybeans leading the way, being down 7-8 cents. Wheat futures prices were a nickel lower, and corn was off 1-2 cents. One reason for soybeans’ continued weakness is that one weather model maintains rain for...
Market Commentary
Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed chair ended today with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deciding to leave the interest rate unchanged, which had been universally expected. The accompanying statement indicated the Fed now expects inflation will rise close to its 2 percent targe...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trading saw wheat and corn prices move higher as soybeans hung around on either side of Monday’s closes. Although corn was the volume leader overnight, wheat nearly matched it. In Monday’s trade, open interest (O/I) in corn jumped 12,417 contracts. We doubt that non...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were strong overnight on very good volume. Weather in Argentina has become the market’s focus, and there were some scattered showers this past weekend. However, amounts and coverage were spotty. The six-10 day forecast looks hot and dry with temperatures possibly...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight. Soybean and soymeal futures then started today’s session easier following a disappointing weekly soybean export sales number. Corn was higher, led by early 5-6 cent gains in wheat. Both corn and wheat futures faded when the soy complex tur...
Market Commentary
The upward thrust of grain and soy futures prices continued overnight as did the upsurge in trading volume. Also continuing was the downward trend of the U.S. dollar, which again helped support grain and soy prices throughout much of the session. Fresh comments today from Treasury Secretary Mnu...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds were higher in the overnight session, trying to extend yesterday’s gains. Trade volume was big with 15,000 March corn contracts traded, 14,000 contracts of March soybeans swapped, and 9,000 March Chicago wheat contracts exchanged. The dollar’s recent slide and te...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices moved lower overnight while grains climbed higher, reversing yesterday’s pattern of direction. The volume of trade was notably higher than during recent overnight sessions, probably in response to a sharp decline of the U.S. dollar against most other major curre...
Market Commentary
The futures market pattern of firmer soybeans and weaker grains continued overnight in modest limited volume, but the truth is that soybean gains as well as corn and wheat losses were relatively small. The market as a whole remains stuck in technical purgatory between support and resistance lev...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportunities in those commodities are rapidly changing as well. Finally, livestock and soft commodity futures are analyzed and their forward curve...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government did partially shut down at midnight (EST) Friday night, but Congress then reached an agreement today to extend government funding through 8 February. This Washington problem didn’t have any apparent impact on the markets today despite the closure of most government off...
Market Commentary
Markets were all higher overnight, led by the soy complex. Soybeans extended those gains to double-digits in the first 30-45 minutes of today’s session. Corn followed soybeans, while wheat couldn’t make a move. No significant relief to the dryness in Argentina coupled with a decent...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and wheat continued yesterday’s higher pricing trend, while corn retreated toward the safety of $3.50 (again). Soymeal was higher for the fourth day in a row, and soyoil was steady/lower. The livestock complex was higher as yesterday’s near-limit move in cattle brought addi...
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was essentially a reversal of recent trends with wheat higher, soybeans flat and corn rising above $3.50/bushel. The cattle complex was sharply higher as buyer activity picked up on cash market transactions and technical buying. After their bearish key reversal on the chart...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Traders returned from the holiday weekend with renewed enthusiasm for selling wheat, buying soybeans, and not doing anything with corn. The livestock complex is higher with lean hog futures leading the way on strong buying activity. Live cattle futures were slightly higher as traders waited for...
Market Commentary
As expected, markets were all basically unchanged overnight in light trading volume ahead of today’s series of major USDA reports. That calm tone then changed immediately upon their release (see separate analysis for details). No need to look at the reports anymore as the market’s s...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for easy understanding and presentation. Starting with a five-day price history for ag, energy and soft commodity futures prices, Commodity Anal...
Market Commentary
On this last full day of trading ahead of the release of USDA’s various reports at noon (EST) on Friday, markets were about as quiet as one might expect given the assumption that they will contain no surprises. The January reports have a history of occasionally moving markets, but traders...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets are well into the waiting game for Friday’s USDA reports, and this shows up in the form of light volume and limited price action that was apparent again during overnight trade. However, a few trends persist. Grain prices continue to gain against soybeans, and soyoil...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy futures markets were a sharp contrast to Monday’s with a substantially lower volume of trade. Interestingly, open interest (O/I) in corn jumped almost 40,000 contracts yesterday. Funds were heavy sellers, adding to their already very large short position. Howev...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportunities in those commodities are rapidly changing as well. Finally, livestock and soft commodity futures are analyzed and their forward curve...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week slightly easier Sunday evening on very limited trading volume with Minneapolis March at just 200 contracts. Meanwhile, March corn and Chicago wheat traded 8,000-10,000 contracts. What started as a marginally “red” day gradually turned into more solid losses...
Regulated Commodity; Foodtopia
Regulated Commodity The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will hold hearings at the end of the month to examine issues related to regulating the trading of bitcoin. The value of bitcoin has risen rapidly in recent weeks as speculators have taken a more dominant posit...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere, livestock futures (live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs) are showing technical signals that may influence how traders should manage the...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in the Thursday night session, and that’s pretty much how they ended the week. Corn didn’t do anything today, while soymeal and soyoil futures supported soybeans. Wheat was down 1-2 cents overnight, but those losses turned bigger this morning. Trading volume today...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.6 from yesterda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...
Market Commentary
One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Market Commentary
For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other related matters, grain and soy markets were rather quiet overnight and again today. Price movements were measured with trading volume average a...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
No China Trade Deal?
The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent. This sent grain and o...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent average. Basically, it was a tale of two markets today. The grains were stronger, but the soy complex was hammered again. Weekly export sales fo...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
Market Commentary
The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are being heard. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is quoted as saying he hopes that negotiations will be wrapped up when Vice-Premier Liu and his team...
Market Commentary
The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muster up a Turnaround Tuesday. However, it was not to be. Renewed fund selling of corn and soybean contracts kept prices under pressure througho...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Market Commentary
Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however, and regularly scheduled reports such as the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report will be released then. U.S trade negotiators a...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and wheat, which took the worst beating, regained several cents. However, the rally effort was not able to generate any momentum, and it had fade...
Market Commentary
For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading volume. However, that did not adequately prepare traders for what happened during the day session. Wheat and corn markets were pummeled by mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales report, although it was not expected to cause any excitement. The spring blizzard pummeling Nebraska, South Dakota and southern Minnesota w...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Market Commentary
The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone before the report’s release, largely due to better-than-expected winter wheat conditions and a 2 percent planting progress for corn. That...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn steady and wheat lower. Overnight volume was average. This week’s big news will be USDA’s April WASDE (supply and demand), set to...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real deal. President Trump commented that “we’re not there yet” on a final agreement, and he also said farmers will be very happy...
Market Commentary
It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and President Trump will end with an announcement of a trade deal. Such an announcement would likely also include word of a meeting between Trump and Ch...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Market Commentary
There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soybeans holding a couple of cents higher and wheat turning down a like amount. That left corn in the middle and about unchanged. The day sessio...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially in corn. Last Friday’s USDA numbers were simply bearish for the corn market and neutral to slightly positive for wheat and soybeans. M...
Market Commentary
The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s separate analysis for details), and corn got hammered as soon as they were released. More optimistic talk about a trade deal with China did...
Market Commentary
As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents higher, wheat was 6-7 cents lower, and corn was near unchanged. This same price pattern was maintained through the first half of the day sess...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
Market Commentary
It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...
Market Commentary
The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...
Market Commentary
It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...
Market Commentary
Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was nothing in the WASDE that could be considered even slightly bullish. It was the opposite as ending supplies for U.S. wheat and corn were hig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading recess. Yesterday’s changes in open interest showed increases of 22,141 contracts of corn, 16,889 soybean contracts and 7,789 contracts o...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day session found wheat taking an unusual bounce higher, but corn managed only a small gain. Soybeans slipped a couple of cents, and soy produc...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day session. The U.S. and China are reportedly close to reaching agreement on at least the initial phases of a trade deal, and there might be a sig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw grain and soy prices leak slightly lower following Monday’s big losses. Notable was corn open interest, which fell nearly 69,000 contracts. No doubt, some of this was due to liquidation ahead of the first delivery intentions on Thursday. The volume of corn contracts...
Market Commentary
More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...
Market Commentary
In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today’s trading with wheat posting solid gains. The markets remain supported/optimistic based on (apparently) improving trade relations betw...
Market Commentary
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson presented the 2019 projections for grains, oilseeds, planted area and farm income. USDA foresees net farm...
Market Commentary
Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Measuring the effect of ASF on hog populations and feed consumption has become difficult if not impossible, but...
Market Commentary
Following the holiday, grain and soy markets began the overnight session just a bit firmer. That lasted until some selling pressure emerged in wheat, which led to prices being mixed at the trading recess with relatively good volume reported. However, it was not long after trading resumed that s...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes. News from talks in Beijing was sparse. President Trump apparently indicated he would agree to extend the negotiations for 60 days as long as...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Market Commentary
Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Today, though, there was a generally optimistic feeling about both that helped push the soybean and corn markets higher. The next round of trade...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...
Market Commentary
Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an example of his aggressive trade policies but did not mention its recent soybean purchases. He also asked Congress to approve the USMCA trade a...
Market Commentary
Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the February WASDE, are a month late has a great deal to do with it. The last WASDE before the government shutdown came out on 11 December, and mu...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets will want to see all the numbers in the 11 January USDA reports that are to be released this Friday before setting any new direction. U.S. equi...
Market Commentary
Agricultural and equity markets were all about China trade deal optimism today. President Trump was very busy tweeting very positive news about the situation, including China’s indication that it would soon buy another 5 MMT of soybeans as well as corn and wheat in future purchases. That...
Market Commentary
Please note: Late word from the White House meeting between the Chinese trade delegation and President Trump indicates that delegation leader Vice-Premier Liu He said that China would make (more) purchases of U.S. soybeans, presumably as part of the large amount of agricultural products China h...
Market Commentary
The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingly competitive. Some growth in export sales volumes was likely during that period, and traders have been anxious for the reports to resume. H...
Market Commentary
Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports chronologically each Tuesday and Friday until they are caught up. USDA/FAS is tentatively scheduled to release an export sales report on Thurs...
Market Commentary
Many were hopeful that last Friday’s actions to reopen the U.S. government plus some optimism that this week’s meeting with China will go well would have a positive impact on agricultural and equity markets, but just the opposite happened. Wheat, corn and soybean markets were lower...
Market Commentary
Markets didn’t do very much overnight in light volume. Corn and soybean futures were a penny higher with wheat down 1-2 cents. Markets then opened this morning with corn and soybeans steady and wheat 3-4 cents lower. Trading volume today was also very light. With no CFTC Commitment of Tra...
Market Commentary
It is always difficult to trade grain and soy futures based on politics and political rhetoric, and this truism is proving itself once again. Markets were lower yesterday on discouraging comments from various sources about the state of U.S.-Chinese negotiations. They were then buoyed early toda...
Market Commentary
It is now well into the second month of the partial government shutdown, and the blackout of the usual information from USDA continues. The only regular report still coming out is the weekly one from FGIS on the volumes of grain and soybeans inspected for export. This is made possible only by t...
Market Commentary
Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Market Commentary
For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weather. Even if one gives a bullish interpretation to all these factors, though, futures prices cannot go up forever. The soybean market discover...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet again overnight, although soybean futures showed some life early this morning and closed the night session a nickel higher with corn steady. Wheat finished down a penny and started today slightly weaker. The U.S. government is beginning the third week of the partial shutdown...
Market Commentary
Markets closed slightly higher in the Thursday night session on very light volume. They then opened firmer this morning with soybeans quickly jumping to gains of a dime or so. The U.S. government remains in a partial shutdown. To put that in perspective, 75 percent of it is funded and operation...
Market Commentary
Today’s CME closing grain market board was very unusual in the array of tiny price changes compared with that of yesterday. MGEX wheat had the biggest gains, finishing up 2.5-3 cents. Every other change was 1 cent or less except for a 1.25 cent gain for corn and Chicago wheat. While this...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Market Commentary
Markets finished the Sunday night session with corn and soybeans down 3 cents, while wheat markets were mostly steady. They opened almost exactly at those levels this morning, but corn and soybeans were trading near unchanged in the first half hour before turning lower again as the session proc...
Market Commentary
Markets ended the Thursday evening session with wheat down 6 cents, corn up a penny and soybeans steady. Volume was light and continued that way in today’s session, which was expected on the last full trading day before the Christmas holiday break. Markets will close at 1 pm (EST) Monday...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded modestly higher overnight following yesterday’s weakness, although trading volume was in a holiday mode. The market was pulled between improving South American weather forecasts and expectations of more Chinese sales announcements. Prices remained firm early i...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mixed overnight, having traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. As the early morning trading recess approached, wheat prices edged lower. However, soybean prices staying around the prior close in expectation that new large sales to China would be reported by US...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...
Market Commentary
Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...
Market Commentary
It is hard to keep track of the rumors flying around concerning Chinese plans to buy U.S. soybeans. Their most common thread has China buying 5-8 MMT, although there are several versions of this rumor. One has Sinograin and COFCO, a state-owned trading company, as the buyers since both would pr...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet Sunday night opening with markets all slightly lower. Trading volume was also average or less both last night and today. The only difference during today’s session was that corn, wheat and soybean futures all slowly gravitated toward unchanged. Weekly export inspections wer...
Market Commentary
The extremely wild gyrations in U.S. equity markets are a good indication that no one knows where the U.S./China trade dispute is headed as well as a sign that it is the rest of the economy that overshadows agricultural concerns. It has been nearly a week since the Trump/Xi dinner in Argentina,...
Market Commentary
The arrest in Vancouver, Canada of Meng Wanzhou, a high-ranking executive of giant Chinese cellular technology company Huawei, and her pending extradition to the U.S. on charges of violating Iranian sanctions pose a potential roadblock for U.S.-China trade negotiations. Huawei has close ties to...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government will be closed 5 December to honor the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States. Release of the government’ s various reports for the remainder of the week will be delayed by one business day as a result. Whatever excitement was created by last we...
Market Commentary
The markets expected an explosive Sunday night market following the great news about the Saturday meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi that has led to a 90-day truce on implementing new tariffs and also promised significant commodity purchases by China. Markets instead took a much more measu...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were all slightly higher overnight, led by 5-6 cent gains in soybeans. Markets opened stronger than that this morning and stayed that way throughout the session. There was optimism around the markets that the Saturday evening meeting in Argentina between the U.S. and China wil...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mostly lower overnight, although not greatly so considering the general strength across the board yesterday. The day session was dominated by whichever way the China trade winds seemed to be blowing. There were optimistic tweets from President Trump that a deal with Ch...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s tough-talking rhetoric from President Trump, in which he said he planned to go ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports, was apparently seen as posturing ahead of his Friday meeting with President Xi because it seemed to have no effect on overnight futures markets trad...
Market Commentary
Markets opened Sunday evening with wheat 3-4 cents higher, corn up a penny and soybeans a penny lower. Overnight volume was much better than last week. Markets then opened this morning with wheat up 5-6 cents, corn slightly lower and soybeans down 6-7 cents. Soybean futures, however, ran into h...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Market Commentary
With the U.S. stock market tanking again and worries over the global economy building, investors continued yesterday’s flight from risk. Nearly all commodity markets were lower, led by a nearly $4.00 loss for crude oil, and the “safe haven” U.S. dollar was up sharply. Amid all...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night markets opened almost exactly steady and traded that way for the first two to three hours. They then finished that session with wheat down 3-4 cents, soybeans down 6-7 cents and corn steady to a half-cent lower. The very light volume overnight extended into today’s early...
Market Commentary
It was another quiet night session Thursday evening with little price change in corn, wheat and soybean futures, and that dull pattern of trade didn’t change today. U.S. weather is basically cool and dry for the foreseeable future. That should allow the remaining fall harvests to finish a...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade reversed some of what occurred on Monday. Soybeans were higher, while grain prices were lower. Traders were chewing over news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been discussing trade issues with high-level Chinese officials. Optimists see such contact as setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower overnight following yesterday’s negative response to the somewhat bullish U.S. corn and wheat WASDE numbers. Both the U.S. and world soybean ending supply estimates were clearly bearish. Today’s session, however, saw the soybean market turn hi...
Market Commentary
Upon detecting the sharp increases in WASDE estimates of world corn and wheat production/stocks, computer trading programs launched sell orders that quickly sent futures prices tumbling (also noted in today’s separate analysis). Wheat futures prices fell 8-10 cents, soybean prices dropped...
Market Commentary
The midterm election has come and gone with the results about as predicted – a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. This will give the chattering classes (and President Trump) plenty to talk about, but the reaction of financial markets today belies a doom-and-gloom outlook. Grain and...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Markets Happy Election is Over
Post-midterm election, pre-WASDE commodity trading lacked the excitement of last night’s newscasts. Grains were flat/lower while the livestock complex remained mixed with hogs gaining on cattle. Grain futrues should have gotten a boost from the U.S. dollar’s drop today but the antic...
Market Commentary
There was apparently a lack of incentive to either buy or sell grain and soy futures in the overnight session, and that carried over into the day session as well. Whether or not today’s midterm election had anything to do with the quiet low volume trade is problematic. The fact is that el...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday night session steady to just slightly higher, but wheat and corn closed this morning down a penny with soybeans 3-4 cents lower. Then during most of today’s session, corn was steady to slightly higher with wheat and soybeans lower. The following two major events...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures were up as much as 18-20 cents overnight on follow-through buying from yesterday’s strength. The market, however, cooled off just before the session’s close on news reports that yesterday’s talk of renewed conversations with China weren’t really true. Cor...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
In overnight futures trading, the grains were a bit firmer with soybeans hovering on either side of unchanged. The only news of consequence was a sharp, unexpected decline of the U.S. dollar versus sterling and the euro. The EU sent some sort of a finalization date in late November for Brexit,...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. Chicago wheat traded as much as a dime higher with corn and soybeans up 3-4 cents and 6-8 cents, respectively. Overnight volume was nothing special, and none of the buying surfaced in today’s session. In fact, those same futures all t...
Market Commentary
Markets firmed up overnight with wheat trading 5-6 cents higher following yesterday’s big sell-off. Wheat then took off sharply higher in the first hour of trading this morning. The strength was attributed to a report that U.S. wheat was among the cheapest offers to Egypt. Corn followed w...
Market Commentary
Winter wheat futures prices were still under pressure during the overnight session, much as they have been nearly all week. That weakness kept the other markets on the defensive, and both corn and soybeans were down slightly at the trading recess. Price weakness widened and deepened during the...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume seemed slightly higher than has been usual recently, but price action for grain and soy futures markets was muted nevertheless. Corn prices held around unchanged, and wheat was fractionally lower. Most of the action occurred in the soy complex as overnight selling pushe...
Market Commentary
The Sunday evening markets held the same trend they have had for several weeks now. Corn and soybean futures were steady to slightly higher with wheat lower. They then gained a little more strength at this morning’s opening, and that brought wheat slightly closer to unchanged. U.S. Corn B...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight following yesterday’s declines, and they slipped a bit more after the weekly export sales report was released 15 minutes before that session closed. Corn and soybean exports sales were much lower than expected, but wheat sales were at the high end of the expec...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
Market Commentary
What Monday giveth, Tuesday taketh away – a colloquial way of saying that for grain and soy markets, today was Turnaround Tuesday. After Monday’s stout price rally, the turnaround began during the overnight session. Soybeans and corn traded quietly and mostly lower, while wheat trad...
Market Commentary
Markets were very quiet in the Sunday night session and closed with fractional losses in extremely light volume. Their tone changed at this morning’s opening with soybeans trading 5-7 cents higher as the soy complex led today’s rally. Corn and wheat followed, and no one was certain...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat the leader. However, wheat softened after the export sales report that was released today (delayed by the 8 October holiday) showed those sales were a little lower than last week. Meanwhile, corn and soybean export sales were also slig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade volume was limited as the market awaited release of USDA’s October WASDE. Corn and wheat were a penny or so lower with soybeans down 4-5 cents, which all tracked with expectations of a bearish report. When the report came out at noon (EDT) today, the immediate conclusion w...
Market Commentary
Fear of the impact of higher interest rates sent the U.S. stock market and nearly every commodity market spinning lower today. And as traders contemplate tomorrow’s October WASDE, they are well aware of the bearish tone of the August and September WASDEs. The assumption is that the Octobe...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets slumbered through the overnight session with the October WASDE two days away. There was little movement in wheat and corn prices, and soybeans traded mostly lower in limited volume. Market watchers generally expect the WASDE to show a slight increase in the corn and soybea...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night session traded slightly higher until prices turned lower early this morning, led by wheat. Markets then opened the day session lower and turned weaker, probably for the following reasons: Rains will be heavy across much of the Corn Belt over the next three to four days, but th...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet trading session overnight. Corn, soybeans and wheat were all slightly higher with closing gains of a penny, 2 cents and 2-3 cents, respectively. The week ended with Washington (and the rest of the country) watching the Senate’s Supreme Court vote today. The monthly U.S. job...
Market Commentary
Low volume, narrow trading ranges and slightly firmer prices characterized trade in the overnight session for grains and the soy complex. The heavy rains due over the Plains and parts of the Corn Belt will restrict harvest progress with country movement already limited enough that corn premiums...
Market Commentary
This was an interesting start to October and the new quarter. Markets were quiet overnight with little price movement. However, that changed significantly at today’s openings with corn and soybeans turning sharply higher. Meanwhile, wheat futures continued to hover around unchanged. There...
Market Commentary
There was much for the markets to deal with today. It was the last day of September and the last day of the quarter; the drama over the Supreme Court nomination continues to play out in Washington; and there is still uncertainty over any possible shift to E15 from E10 that would increase ethano...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices turned a bit lower overnight as traders prepared for USDA’s stocks, small grains and winter wheat acreage reports to be released tomorrow at 12:00 noon (EDT). The spot soybean and corn contracts were down about 1.5 cents, and Chicago wheat was off about 4 cent...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures featured higher prices and modest volume. Soybeans were the leader with the November contract up about 7.5 cents. The grains were higher but more timidly so. Chicago wheat was up about 4 cents, and corn’s gains were limited to fractions. Trading vo...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade showed mixed results as the session recessed. Soybeans were higher by a few cents, but corn and wheat traded lower. The world oilseed sector is being supported by surging crude oil prices, which saw Brent crude trade as high as $82.55 after OPEC decided to leave its prod...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures were all lower through most of the Sunday evening session. However, wheat futures turned slightly higher early this morning and continued that trading pattern when the day session opened, closing with gains of up to 5.25 cents. Soybeans continue to bear the brun...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were lower overnight with corn trading fractionally higher. The big question today was whether yesterday’s strength in corn and soybean futures was anything more than a technical bounce off of recent lows or instead a reaction to bullish news. Corn maintained som...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market
The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...
Market Commentary
Pre-WASDE positioning sent the grains complex lower today, while livestock futures were under pressure from profit taking and lackluster cash markets. Fund managers are worried tomorrow’s report will be a repeat of the August WASDE and are paring back any long positions. It’s tough...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to lower overnight in very light volume. Weekly export sales, delayed a day because of last Monday’s holiday, came in about as expected. There were no daily sales announced today. Meanwhile, the U.S. is on the eve of big corn and soybean harvests. The super wet parts o...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade continued to be light in volume and devoid of excitement overnight with limited price movement. This dull pattern carried over to the day session as well. Wheat futures moved lower during the day, a response to ongoing fund liquidation, the lack of export demand, and...
Market Commentary
Early firming of prices in the overnight session had some traders hoping that Turnaround Tuesday had been postponed until Wednesday due to the holiday. However, it was not to be. After the beating they took yesterday, wheat futures did hold a few cents higher at the trading recess, but corn and...
Market Commentary
Following the long weekend, corn and soybean futures were quiet with little change overnight. However, wheat futures suffered double-digit losses on wire service reports that Russian ag ministry officials told exporters that putting restrictions on grain and wheat exports would not be necessary...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices posted modest gains during the overnight session. They were led again by wheat, which followed up on Wednesday’s big rally. The volatile Euronext wheat futures also surged ahead, adding to yesterday’s big move. As CME day session trading resumed, however, the Eu...
Market Commentary
In recent years, the last week of August and/or the first week of September have been the best bets for the timing of seasonal lows for CME grain and soy futures prices. The reason for this is that for the last several years, prospects for very large harvests of corn and soybeans about to get u...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower again in the Sunday night session as well as throughout today. Corn and soybeans were still suffering a hangover from the Pro Farmer tour’s big estimates. Funds remain long Chicago wheat futures and have gotten crushed, and they continued to exit long positions today. U...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets traded a bit better overnight with wheat markets again lower. China’s “low-level” trade delegation went home with no evidence that any progress had been made in the trade talks. The Trump administration still says it is days (maybe hours) from announci...
Market Commentary
As of this writing, there is no word from the two-day U.S./China trade meeting that should be about to wrap up. No one expects an agreement to suspend hostilities, but the two sides will hopefully agree to more talks. That the tit-for-tat tariffs on $16 billion worth of goods, part of the first...
Market Commentary
USDA’s aid package for farmers, whose income prospects have been impacted by the administration’s use of higher tariffs as trade policy, is reportedly now being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and it should be ready for unveiling on 24 August. Unconfirmed repo...
Market Commentary
Quiet overnight trading saw weaker wheat prices, while corn and soybeans traded narrowly on either side of unchanged. Winter wheat futures fell below technical support, bringing on long liquidation by noncommercials that accelerated during the day session. Chicago wheat finished today 10.75-15...
Market Commentary
Wheat and corn were lower overnight, and the soy complex was firm. The weakness in wheat was caused by a bigger-than-expected fund long position coupled with a chance for rain in eastern Australia. Soybeans were firm on continued trade optimism. Corn was confused over whether to follow wheat or...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight and again today. The night session ended with wheat up 9-11 cents, corn steady to a half-cent higher and soybeans down 5 cents. There was none of yesterday’s excitement in the soy complex today. It seems the trade settled back to thinking it might still take a...
Market Commentary
Yesterday was a macro “risk -off” day as fears that currency and debt issues for emerging economies might spread widely enough to jar world economic growth. Commodities were hard hit by concerns that an economic slowdown would shrink demand for raw materials. Today turned into a &ld...
Market Commentary
Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower in the Sunday evening session as the hangover from last Friday’s bearish USDA corn and soybean numbers continued. The wheat numbers that day were actually supportive, but wheat was the weakest market overnight and again today with double-digit losses throughout most of...
Market Commentary
At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was quiet as expected with traders looking to reduce risk and position in preparation for tomorrow’s mid-session WASDE release. Wheat and soybeans were lower overnight, but corn held on to small gains. Dalian soy complex and corn futures were once again quite strong, while...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidation of presumably profitable long positions. New short positions just ahead of Friday’s WASDE would require that the sellers have stron...
Market Commentary
President Trump has called for 25 percent tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, possibly as early as late September, and this has thrown a wet blanket over the soybean futures market. No one knows what will happen or when, but the assumption is that the hoped-for resumption of off...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big soybean rally was sponsored by a press report indicating the possibility that the U.S. and China might resume a formal discussion on the current trade conflict. Overnight price action suggested that the rally was overdone as soybean futures gave back more than one-third of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices firmed overnight as the leading weather models indicated the return of above-normal temperatures and dry conditions to portions of the Midwest during the first two weeks of August. Although crop maturity is generally eight-10 days ahead of average, heat and dryness during e...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight. They were led again by wheat, which then exploded to gains of 15-20 cents at this morning’s openings. Corn and soybeans were higher, but there was no real excitement in those markets. Trading volume was much better than last Friday. In a change from late las...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight and today. Volume was very light for corn and soybeans but better than average for Chicago wheat. The markets actually traded better than expected after yesterday’s late break from strong early day trade. Funds were light sellers of corn and wheat while...
Market Commentary
News that the U.S. and the EU pulled back from a potentially escalating trade war gave financial markets a boost late yesterday, and the agreements between President Trump and EU President Juncker included a promise that the EU would buy more U.S. soybeans. Algorithmic trading programs read the...
Market Commentary
The sharp jump in world wheat prices on the back of wheat production losses in Russia, the EU, Australia and elsewhere along with the government’s $12 billion aid package for farmers harmed by retaliation against President Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs are the topics of the d...
Market Commentary
The promised program to aid farmers hurt by the trade conflict with China and others will be $12 billion, according to USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue at a press briefing this afternoon (see Trade Mitigation Funds for details). President Trump is scheduled to speak in Iowa tomorrow, and he will no...
Market Commentary
It was a very quiet Sunday night session across soybeans, wheat and corn. The markets finished with corn up 1 cent, beans steady, Chicago wheat 3 cents higher, KC up 4-5 cents and Minneapolis with gains of 10-11. That pretty well summed up today’s action with the exception of a few spurts...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight, but the wheat markets took off higher again this morning. KC and Chicago traded gains of 10-15 cents most of the day before closing up 10-12.75 cents. Meanwhile, Minneapolis was trading 15-20 cents higher and finished up 14-18.25 cents. Corn aga...
Market Commentary
The quietude of yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets continued in the overnight trading session. Volume and price movement were limited with nothing significant to inject trading interest or volume into the markets, and prices stayed close to Wednesday’s closes. At this morning...
Market Commentary
After featuring active trade and higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, grain and soybean markets paused to catch their breath today. Volume was restrained, and limited price action kept values near Tuesday’s closes. Following those rare occasions during the past few months when markets ral...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices firmed overnight, in part because USDA dropped weekly condition ratings for corn and soybeans further than the trade expected. Another element of support came from FGIS export inspections showing that demand for soybeans and corn remains at a high pace despite trade conflic...
Market Commentary
Today is Friday the 13th, and the week ended accordingly. Soybeans were down again overnight and continued lower today. Corn joined soybeans, while wheat was independently firm. The news is the same. No trade deals appear to be on the horizon, and that means no speculative buyers are likely yet...
Market Commentary
While awaiting today’s WASDE, grains and soy markets traded a bit higher overnight as they tried to recover at least a small portion of yesterday’s trade-related beating. Soybeans and Chicago wheat were both up about 6 cents, and corn gained around 3 cents. Yesterday’s steep l...
Market Commentary
The bell to start the next round of the escalating U.S. trade scuffle with China rang late last evening with news that the Trump administration is preparing a new list of $200 billion worth of imported goods from there, which it proposes to subject to a 10 percent tariff. The list will be publi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading pushed corn and soybean prices mildly lower with more pronounced weakness in wheat. Good weather, high weekly crop condition ratings and expectations that USDA’s July WASDE (to be released Thursday) will be bearish discouraged buyers and kept pressure on futures prices...
Market Commentary
The trade worries won’t go away. Even though markets ignored the imposition of tariffs last Friday, they were back to selling today in relatively light trading volume. Two other negative market factors to start this week were the following: USDA will release its July crop production upda...
Market Commentary
U.S. soybean, corn and wheat markets finished the night session up 1-2 cents despite the U.S./China trade war becoming a reality overnight. However, the soybean and soymeal markets opened strong today and moved to big gains by midmorning, putting the trade issues behind for at least today. Corn...
Market Commentary
Today’s post-holiday market was not the frenzied affair that sometimes follows the 4th of July. There was no overnight session (due to the holiday), and trading seemed relatively subdued when it began this morning. It remained quiet even though wheat and soybeans closed with notable price...
Market Commentary
CME grain and soy markets closed early today for the U.S. holiday and will not reopen until 9:30 a.m. (EDT) Thursday. They are often quite volatile on the first trading day following the 4th of July due to the importance of weather conditions and forecasts for the rest of the month as well as d...
Market Commentary
Markets traded just slightly better overnight and found additional buying ahead of the USDA reports this morning. Wheat markets led the pre-report rally, trading as much as 20-25 cents higher in KC and Chicago. Corn followed wheat for a bit with 6-7 cent gains, and soybeans were also strong. Th...
Market Commentary
It is the last full trading day before the sometimes-eventful June planting and quarterly stocks report. Based on the average trade estimates of acreage and stocks, tomorrow’s reports are viewed as a quiet affair. Corn and soybean acres are expected to be slightly higher than the March nu...
Market Commentary
After having announced them earlier, the Trump administration late Tuesday apparently decided not to impose special restrictions on Chinese investments in/access to U.S. technology in the name of national security. Rather, it will rely on the limits and restrictions already in place that apply...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a quiet, low volume affair with only limited price changes for grains and the soy complex. As the day session progressed, however, wheat ran out of friends who then also deserted (once again) the soybean market. Wheat’s downturn was led by KC HRW, in which funds stil...
Market Commentary
Markets were all lower overnight, and that pattern accelerated throughout today’s session with wheat, corn and soybeans all suffering big losses at the close. The two primary factors in today’s markets are the following: Corn Belt weather looks wet for the first half of this week...
Market Commentary
It was a peaceful night session with corn and wheat showing very little change. Meanwhile, soybeans were 7-8 cents higher with meal up $2.00-3.00. Markets will probably be in idle mode until there are more developments on trade issues either with China or NAFTA. They seem to have factored in th...
Market Commentary
Welcome to summer! Led by soybeans, which eased about 6 cents lower, trading during the overnight session found prices with a lower bias. The grains were mostly lower also but did not stray far from Wednesday’s closes. On the trade front, the war of words continues. However, there is no s...
Market Commentary
After trade war fears sank grain and soy futures yesterday, the overnight session opened cautiously. Prices edged a bit higher, but trading was tentative and volume was low. Yesterday’s emotional lashing left markets in a highly oversold state. However, without a signal that further discu...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain futures prices were lower to open the overnight session, and losses grew as trading progressed into the early morning. Understandably, soybeans were the downside leader as they are most directly threatened by Chinese tariffs. They were down more than 20 cents when trading rece...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat opened lower Sunday with soybeans slightly higher. Everything was slightly lower by the time markets closed this morning, and that is how they opened the day session. Soybeans traded back and forth with small gains or losses through much of today. Wheat was moderately lower with...
Market Commentary
There probably isn’t much point in talking about fundamental issues surrounding the grain and oilseed markets as very little has changed in that regard. The Black Sea region continues to suffer from adverse weather that is reducing yields and production there, and most of Australia is sti...
Market Commentary
The rout continues. Grains and soy complex futures prices fell again overnight, and they continued to drop throughout the day session. Interestingly, corn and wheat were relatively weaker than soybeans even though the latter have a much bigger stake in the U.S./China tariff situation. The likel...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures started out firmer on follow-through from yesterday’s post-report rally. However, that did not last long. The market’s attention soon returned to trade issues when Washington sources indicated the Trump administration is preparing to impose the long-discussed t...
Market Commentary
The overnight market did not seem to know how to take the results of the Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting in Singapore. It ended with an announced agreement to denuclearize North Korea and for the U.S. to cease joint military exercises with South Korea. As always, the “devil is in the details,&r...
Market Commentary
Markets were relatively quiet Sunday night, but corn and soybeans turned decidedly weaker today to finish with big losses. Funds started this week long everything except soyoil. They’ve had these positions for quite some time and evidently decided that today was the time to either get out...
Market Commentary
Profit taking, good weather and zero technical support left the CBOT to trade lower today with only corn managing to close a few cents higher. With the ongoing trade issues and increasingly high odds of good U.S. corn and soybean crops again, bullish news is tough to come by. Brazil’s sec...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trading found prices around unchanged or slightly firmer except for wheat futures, which marched off to double-digit gains. There is more talk of deteriorating conditions for winter wheat in southern Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan with overly dry conditions also moving into Po...
Market Commentary
Futures were higher overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that China had agreed to purchase $70 billion of U.S. energy and agriculture products. Once again, this amounted to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation, and corn and soybean futures turned lower this afterno...
Market Commentary
In a follow-up to Monday’s beating, grain and soy prices were slightly lower in early overnight trade. However, they managed to recover and were a bit higher as trading recessed. Price action was mixed during the day session in quiet, low volume trade, but prices eventually turned higher...
Market Commentary
Today’s news was dominated by trade matters that potentially could be important for grain and soy markets. President Trump declared that beginning tomorrow (Friday), he would impose tariffs on steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent) imports from Mexico, Canada and the EU that were ea...
Refining the Volcker Rule
If there is a common thread tying together the vast jungle of complex banking regulations that emerged from the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial market reform legislation, it is that large and small banks complain about the costs and inefficiencies forced on them by compliance requirements, and that p...
Market Commentary
Profit taking and surprisingly good crop condition ratings sparked a sell-off at the CBOT today. The overnight session featured losses of 3 cents for corn, 5.75 cents for soybeans and 8 cents for SRW wheat. The day session featured more of the same with bears testing key technical points for gr...
Market Commentary
The overnight session that started Monday evening was the first opportunity to trade CME grain and soy futures since Friday. Wheat futures traded higher, but corn and soybean prices started out unchanged to lower. The latter gradually turned green as well in response to an array of threatening...
Market Commentary
Markets opened the Thursday evening session marginally softer after yesterday’s weakness. Corn and wheat pushing to new highs yesterday morning and then selling off when little fresh buying showed up provided a very weak-looking technical pattern. Markets finished the night session with s...
Market Commentary
The general grain and soy rally surged ahead overnight with soybeans and wheat reaching double-digit gains, while more timid corn futures managed to climb 3-4 cents. Speculation that China may commit to purchase a large amount of additional U.S. ag products and a list of weather concerns around...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded both narrowly and slightly lower overnight in diminished volume. A flurry of sometimes contradictory statements from administration trade officials, including the inevitable tweets from President Trump, left many observers wondering just what had been agreed to with...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s active trade-driven session saw the huge unwinding of long soybean—short corn/wheat spreads, thanks to the agreement to suspend threats of tariffs from both the U.S. and China. The overnight session found corn and wheat futures trying to bounce back from being the sell l...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were firmer overnight with wheat the leader. Winter and spring wheat futures traders seemed inspired by wheat’s ability to avoid the downdraft that took corn and soybean values lower Wednesday. Also, press reports noted dry conditions in the western Canadian Prairies...
Market Commentary
The lack of any news from the U.S./Chinese trade meeting was disconcerting. Mostly as a result of this, soybeans were unable to build on Tuesday’s late rally in overnight trade. This was so even though wheat and corn were mildly firmer overnight. No news about the trade discussions is not...
Market Commentary
It was an erratic and somewhat volatile day of trade for grain and soy futures. Financial markets also experienced an uptick in volatility, and this may have rubbed off on grains and the soy complex. Overnight trade was relatively calm, but prices across the board were slightly firmer. They wer...
Market Commentary
Markets were all running for cover last night and today following what was considered a disappointing response to yesterday’s USDA reports. They actually contained a few bullish surprises, and the markets did try to respond by trading higher immediately after their release. However, they...
Market Commentary
Trading during the overnight session was quiet with moderate volume ahead of this morning’s WASDE with its projections for 2018/19. Prices were generally firmer with soybeans up 4-5 cents while corn and wheat futures posted smaller gains. During the day session, the market did very little...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy traders are in a waiting game for news on Chinese trade and NAFTA as well as the 10 May release of USDA’s WASDE. The May report may not be the most important of the year, but it will certainly be one of the most interesting with USDA’s plunge into projections for U.S...
Market Commentary
As most expected, President Trump announced the U.S. was withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran with the intention of resuming sanctions against it and the countries that buy its oil. So certain were analysts that President Trump would do this that the actual announcement was anticlim...
Market Commentary
Markets started lower Sunday night, and that weakness accelerated into widespread selling across the wheat and soybean markets today. Some of the same bearish factors took center stage again, including the following: Lack of progress in the trade talks with China Possibility of late week rain...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Thursday night session mixed and traded that way until news the U.S. trade delegation to China was headed home without any positive announcements. Remember the markets closed better yesterday on rumors the trade discussions were going well with possibly favorable news today...
Market Commentary
Grain and, especially, soy futures played a waiting game overnight and again during the day session, anticipating some news from the trade discussions between high level U.S. and Chinese officials that began Thursday in Beijing. According to press reports, the first day’s meetings broke w...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were in a corrective mode overnight. Prices for soybeans, wheat and corn edged a few cents lower after Tuesday’s broad May Day rally. Soymeal was lower, but soyoil traded higher in very mild reversals of yesterday’s action. Trading volume was light with many As...
Market Commentary
Much of the world has been enjoying the May Day holiday, which probably limited overnight trading volumes. Overnight futures prices found soybeans and wheat trading a bit lower, while corn hung around unchanged. Trading during the day came under the influence of diverse weather conditions and f...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally firm overnight. That “firmness” then blossomed into a full-fledged, general rally this morning, led by big gains in the soy complex. This morning’s Stats Canada planting report was partly responsible as it showed intended canola and soybean acres were mu...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade found corn and wheat futures in a mild retreat from yesterday’s big gains, while soybeans were quietly higher. Trading volume was rather light. China and much of Europe will celebrate their May Day holiday tomorrow through Monday. Word that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U...
Market Commentary
Follow-through from Tuesday’s rally sent grain and soybean prices higher overnight in moderate volume. Word late Tuesday that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, possibly accompanied by U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, would go to Beijing to discuss economic and trade issues was taken a...
Market Commentary
Small-scale liquidation continued in overnight trade, although trading volume declined from recent overnight sessions. Price changes were minimal, but after some back and forth movement, they trended slightly lower pretty much across the board by the trading recess this morning. After the halfw...
Market Commentary
Markets surprised the trade a bit and opened with small gains Sunday night, led by KC wheat despite the rainfall across portions of the southern Plains hard red winter wheat region. Although that area’s predicted weekend rain event did occur, coverage and amounts were not as good as adver...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Market Commentary
Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, though, and that held corn down as well. Last Friday night’s military action in Syria had no apparent effect on either U.S. commodity mar...
Market Commentary
Markets all started easier Thursday evening and finished the night session mixed with corn down less than a penny, soybeans up 1-2 cents, KC and Chicago wheat down 6-7 cents, and Minneapolis wheat 1-2 cents lower. This pattern didn’t change throughout today’s session except for soyb...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the big mover during the overnight session. Its direction was downward as weather models indicated that after another seven days of dry conditions, 19-21 April will offer a fair chance of moderate rain showers over parts of Kansas. Amounts are supposed to be heavy enough to cheer up w...
Market Commentary
A war of words between the U.S. and Russia over a possible U.S. missile strike against the Syrian regime, intended as a response to its purported gas attack on civilians, is raising geopolitical tensions. Yesterday’s calming conciliatory remarks on trade from Chinese President Xi have pro...
Market Commentary
Market participants had plenty to think about today. In an anticipated speech, China’s President Xi said that he favored cutting tariffs on auto imports and other products, protecting intellectual property rights of foreign companies, and increasing imports as a way of expanding balanced...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, led by the soy complex with wheat also strong and corn firm. Weekend news shows seemed to hint that there will be no trade war with China. The Chinese president will make an important address to his nation Tuesday, and markets will be watching very closely. USDA a...
Market Commentary
Last night’s trade appeared to be headed toward steady or perhaps slightly higher openings following yesterday’s rebound in corn and wheat futures markets, and as soybeans cut their early day losses significantly at the close. The other “positive” was that the U.S. equit...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade saw grain and soy prices continue the recovery that began during Wednesday’s day session, which followed the major sell-off immediately after China’s announcement very early that morning of planned import tariffs on 106 products, prominently including soybeans. Soybe...
Market Commentary
Yesterday the Trump administration detailed a list of about 1,300 items imported from China that it intends to subject to a 25 percent tariff to offset $50 billion of losses attributed to that country’s theft of U.S. intellectual property. China’s response was surprisingly quick wit...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big trading volume and price declines were tempered overnight with soybeans and wheat turning a bit higher while corn mostly stayed within fractions of Monday’s closes. Chicago and KC wheat prices were up in response to USDA’s first national winter wheat crop condi...
Market Commentary
Markets had strong buying in the Sunday night session following the three-day Easter weekend and USDA’s bullish corn/soybean acreage estimates of last Thursday. The overnight rally then quickly lost steam this morning, partially due to ideas that those USDA acreage estimates were perhaps...
Market Commentary
Low volume and mixed price movement for grains and the soy complex characterized both overnight trading and the day session. Most traders seem to be positioned where they want to be ahead of Thursday’s USDA stocks and prospective planting reports. If they are not, it was (and is) too late...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The fireworks were in the livestock futures markets today as lean hog futures pulled an impressive reversal on big trading volumes. This support spilled over into the cattle markets, though bullishness was more subdued there. Grains and oilseeds traded a steady session ahead of tomorrow’s...
Market Commentary
In contrast to the heavy volume during the Sunday/Monday overnight session, trade was very light last night and in the early morning. Futures price action was mixed with soybeans and corn up slightly and wheat just a bit lower. The low trading volume carried over to the day session as did...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight in very good trading volume for a night session. U.S. equity markets were expected to recover some of Friday’s big losses, and weather across Argentina and the southern Plains is still a problem. U.S. equities were super strong today. The weekend news program...
Market Commentary
Overnight volume was big with markets down significantly on the heels of the U.S. equity markets’ collapse after commodity trading closed yesterday. It is all about the announced tariffs against some products from China and how this pending trade war might interfere with U.S. soybean and...
Market Commentary
The weekly USDA/FASS export sales report has been delayed until tomorrow (Friday) morning because of the winter storm that forced the closure of government offices in Washington, DC yesterday. Grain and soy prices were slightly firmer during the overnight session with winter wheat leading the w...
Market Commentary
To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate a quarter-percent to a still historically low 1.75 percent. This increase, the sixth since December 2015, was approved unanimously by the voting members of the committee. T...
Market Commentary
During overnight trading, grain and soy markets tried to recover from the beating they took on Monday but with very limited success. Prices were firmer, although it was only by a few cents except for the corn market’s recovery that was measured in fractions. They continued to trade on bot...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices generally firmer in something of a recovery from Wednesday’s lingering weakness. Soybeans and MGEX spring wheat were the leaders, trading up 6-8 cents and about 7 cents, respectively. KC HRW was about 4 cents higher with Chicago wheat gaining...
Market Commentary
A swirl of rumors about possible new trade actions against China from the Trump administration provided a backdrop for today’s grain and soy futures markets. During overnight trade, those rumors at first seemed to limit volume and keep prices from moving much in any direction. Corn was mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action saw grain and soy prices continue the firmer trend set by the rebound from earlier losses late in Monday’s day session that was enough to maintain positive technical support. Soybeans and winter wheat were a few cents higher, and corn gained a fraction of a cent ove...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft in the Sunday evening session. There was light rainfall across 20-25 percent of Argentina with another chance for showers later this week. The forecast for the southern Plains still looks warm and dry, but KC wheat futures were the weakest overnight. Concerns over the expandin...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and turned much more so today with soybeans and wheat leading the charge lower. Among the numerous bearish factors affecting markets today were the following: There’s an unexpected chance for rain showers across Argentina, although the actual amounts and cover...
Market Commentary
President Trump signed a proclamation this afternoon establishing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum over the objection of many Republicans in Congress and the U.S. business community, excluding steel companies. Canada, the largest exporter of steel to the U.S., and Mexico will be temporari...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets traded lower overnight and mostly lower again during the day session, reflecting the growing uncertainties facing traders. There is Thursday’s March WASDE and expectations that USDA will lower estimates of Argentine soybean and corn production plus Brazilian...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Ag commodities trading was quiet today as the markets wait for USDA’s WASDE report tomorrow. Most CBOT products traded both sides of unchanged before closing lower, except for the soy complex which broke lower early in the day and failed to recover. There is growing sentiment wondering if...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was a low volume affair with corn and the soy complex doing very little in either direction. Meanwhile, winter wheat markets gave back some of yesterday’s gains. There was little by way of fresh news overnight. Argentina and Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul remain ve...
Market Commentary
Markets were largely neutral overnight. Ongoing dry weather in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains (hard red winter wheat) was offset by fears of just where the world trade discussions will go. The markets opened mostly steady today, but the KC wheat market eventually broke out higher. Soybe...
Market Commentary
Soybeans finished the night session strong with 8-9 cent gains, while wheat was mixed and corn a penny higher. Volume of trade was very big. Markets opened today with a much weaker tone in wheat with corn and soybeans mixed. The lack of follow-through from yesterday and the night session was at...
Commodities are in Vogue Again
In the 1840s, the ad hoc trading of physical lots of wheat, corn, rye, oats and hay on a street corner in Chicago eventually became transaction-based on standardized terms. That development allowed traders to buy and sell physical quantities of grain for delivery at specified times in the futur...
Market Commentary
Green was the color of the day for grain and soy markets. Prices wavered a bit at the opening of overnight trading, but they soon began to push higher. Some of yesterday’s weather models had hinted at possible showers over parts of Argentina’s crop areas next week, but later model r...
Market Commentary
Tomorrow (28 February) is the first day for delivery intentions against March futures contracts. As of the close yesterday, more than 105,000 contracts of March corn and about 72,000 contracts of March soybeans remained open. The grain, soybean and soymeal markets are heavily overbought and oug...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly higher overnight in relatively light trading volume. Corn was a penny higher, and soybeans were up 3-4 cents as were KC and Chicago wheat. The release of USDA’s 2018/19 U.S. supply and demand numbers as the night session was still trading didn’t change anything...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy complex futures had low volume and was quiet without much price movement. Soybeans were a couple of cents lower, but corn and wheat were about unchanged. There was little fresh news to trade on. Weather forecasts for South America and the U.S. were about unchang...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s grain and soy futures markets sold off well below the highs reached earlier in the session and closed unenthusiastically with a weak tone. The late session softness seemed to give traders reason to pause, and price action overnight was considerably more muted. In fact, prices...
Market Commentary
Over the long weekend, rainfall in Argentina was limited to portions of Buenos Aires as the rest of the main crop areas remaining dry. That plus a forecast of little (if any) rain for the next 10 days set the stage for soymeal and soybeans to gap higher when the Monday night session opened. Bot...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to tick higher soon after trading resumed for the day session. Support was offered by agreement among all three major weather models that the so...
Market Commentary
The overnight session found prices trading mostly lower, which was in line with selling late Tuesday that took prices down to closes that were mostly well below session highs. No doubt some of that late selling was profit taking after the recent rally. However, open interest increases for soyme...
Market Commentary
Trading during the overnight session turned much quieter in terms of price action and volume versus Sunday night and Monday. Prices traded both sides of yesterday’s closes, but they seldom strayed more than 2 cents. Today is the Fat Tuesday Carnival celebration in Brazil and throughout So...
Market Commentary
The markets started with good gains in the Sunday evening session, led by double-digit increases in soybeans on the heels of a sharp rally in soymeal futures. Overnight volume was also good with over 40,000 contracts of corn and 36,000 contracts of soybeans. Chicago wheat volume exceeded 20,000...
Market Commentary
The general chaos that has plagued the U.S. financial markets this week is having a negative spillover impact on more markets. Crude oil dropped more than $3.00/barrel at one point today and is now trading back below $60.00. The Dow and S&P also again had volatile trading. Bottom pickers ap...
Market Commentary
As the markets waited for USDA’s February WASDE at noon (EST) today, overnight trading volume declined rather sharply from its heavy level earlier this week. Corn, wheat and soybeans traded both sides of yesterday’s closes overnight. At the early morning trading break, soybeans were...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures opened the overnight session mostly stronger on follow-up momentum and the bullish technical signals generated by Tuesday’s price action. Trading volume was heavy once again. Grain and soy traders seemed unfazed by financial market volatility as evidenced by Dow futu...
Market Commentary
The overnight trading session for grains and the soy complex opened with the backdrop of the biggest single-day decline of the Dow ever. It was not the biggest percentage loss, however. World stock markets were also trading down very sharply with most global stock indices giving up all of their...
Market Madness
The stock market fell nearly 1,200 points yesterday, the Dow’s largest decline in a single day and the biggest drop since 2011, a very volatile year. Monday’s bear market was the equivalent of almost a 4.6 percent loss, which is far from a record in percentage terms. There were 21 d...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets opened lower overnight, and they traded that way throughout the day session. A number of factors contributed to this trend today, including: The forecast from last week for some rains (not expected to be heavy) across Argentina by this weekend hasn’t chang...
Market Commentary
The corn, soybean and wheat markets were lower overnight with the latter two suffering the greatest losses in moderate volume. That pattern of weakness did not change in today’s session. There is a chance for some helpful rainfall across Argentina in the extended forecasts, although it wi...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s corrective price action extended into the overnight session with soybeans leading the way, being down 7-8 cents. Wheat futures prices were a nickel lower, and corn was off 1-2 cents. One reason for soybeans’ continued weakness is that one weather model maintains rain for...
Market Commentary
Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed chair ended today with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deciding to leave the interest rate unchanged, which had been universally expected. The accompanying statement indicated the Fed now expects inflation will rise close to its 2 percent targe...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trading saw wheat and corn prices move higher as soybeans hung around on either side of Monday’s closes. Although corn was the volume leader overnight, wheat nearly matched it. In Monday’s trade, open interest (O/I) in corn jumped 12,417 contracts. We doubt that non...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were strong overnight on very good volume. Weather in Argentina has become the market’s focus, and there were some scattered showers this past weekend. However, amounts and coverage were spotty. The six-10 day forecast looks hot and dry with temperatures possibly...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight. Soybean and soymeal futures then started today’s session easier following a disappointing weekly soybean export sales number. Corn was higher, led by early 5-6 cent gains in wheat. Both corn and wheat futures faded when the soy complex tur...
Market Commentary
The upward thrust of grain and soy futures prices continued overnight as did the upsurge in trading volume. Also continuing was the downward trend of the U.S. dollar, which again helped support grain and soy prices throughout much of the session. Fresh comments today from Treasury Secretary Mnu...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds were higher in the overnight session, trying to extend yesterday’s gains. Trade volume was big with 15,000 March corn contracts traded, 14,000 contracts of March soybeans swapped, and 9,000 March Chicago wheat contracts exchanged. The dollar’s recent slide and te...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices moved lower overnight while grains climbed higher, reversing yesterday’s pattern of direction. The volume of trade was notably higher than during recent overnight sessions, probably in response to a sharp decline of the U.S. dollar against most other major curre...
Market Commentary
The futures market pattern of firmer soybeans and weaker grains continued overnight in modest limited volume, but the truth is that soybean gains as well as corn and wheat losses were relatively small. The market as a whole remains stuck in technical purgatory between support and resistance lev...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportunities in those commodities are rapidly changing as well. Finally, livestock and soft commodity futures are analyzed and their forward curve...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government did partially shut down at midnight (EST) Friday night, but Congress then reached an agreement today to extend government funding through 8 February. This Washington problem didn’t have any apparent impact on the markets today despite the closure of most government off...
Market Commentary
Markets were all higher overnight, led by the soy complex. Soybeans extended those gains to double-digits in the first 30-45 minutes of today’s session. Corn followed soybeans, while wheat couldn’t make a move. No significant relief to the dryness in Argentina coupled with a decent...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and wheat continued yesterday’s higher pricing trend, while corn retreated toward the safety of $3.50 (again). Soymeal was higher for the fourth day in a row, and soyoil was steady/lower. The livestock complex was higher as yesterday’s near-limit move in cattle brought addi...
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was essentially a reversal of recent trends with wheat higher, soybeans flat and corn rising above $3.50/bushel. The cattle complex was sharply higher as buyer activity picked up on cash market transactions and technical buying. After their bearish key reversal on the chart...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Traders returned from the holiday weekend with renewed enthusiasm for selling wheat, buying soybeans, and not doing anything with corn. The livestock complex is higher with lean hog futures leading the way on strong buying activity. Live cattle futures were slightly higher as traders waited for...
Market Commentary
As expected, markets were all basically unchanged overnight in light trading volume ahead of today’s series of major USDA reports. That calm tone then changed immediately upon their release (see separate analysis for details). No need to look at the reports anymore as the market’s s...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for easy understanding and presentation. Starting with a five-day price history for ag, energy and soft commodity futures prices, Commodity Anal...
Market Commentary
On this last full day of trading ahead of the release of USDA’s various reports at noon (EST) on Friday, markets were about as quiet as one might expect given the assumption that they will contain no surprises. The January reports have a history of occasionally moving markets, but traders...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets are well into the waiting game for Friday’s USDA reports, and this shows up in the form of light volume and limited price action that was apparent again during overnight trade. However, a few trends persist. Grain prices continue to gain against soybeans, and soyoil...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy futures markets were a sharp contrast to Monday’s with a substantially lower volume of trade. Interestingly, open interest (O/I) in corn jumped almost 40,000 contracts yesterday. Funds were heavy sellers, adding to their already very large short position. Howev...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportunities in those commodities are rapidly changing as well. Finally, livestock and soft commodity futures are analyzed and their forward curve...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week slightly easier Sunday evening on very limited trading volume with Minneapolis March at just 200 contracts. Meanwhile, March corn and Chicago wheat traded 8,000-10,000 contracts. What started as a marginally “red” day gradually turned into more solid losses...
Regulated Commodity; Foodtopia
Regulated Commodity The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will hold hearings at the end of the month to examine issues related to regulating the trading of bitcoin. The value of bitcoin has risen rapidly in recent weeks as speculators have taken a more dominant posit...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere, livestock futures (live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs) are showing technical signals that may influence how traders should manage the...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in the Thursday night session, and that’s pretty much how they ended the week. Corn didn’t do anything today, while soymeal and soyoil futures supported soybeans. Wheat was down 1-2 cents overnight, but those losses turned bigger this morning. Trading volume today...