Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Recent Rallies Lose Steam
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to discuss agriculture and non-tariff trade barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington later this month, potentially opening the door to additional U.S. agricultural purchases or improved marke...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 31 August)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco is reported to be resuming soft wheat imports on 16 September 2026, ending the three-month ban on imports that had begun on 1 June 2026. The government will announce the details of the 2026 wheat support program shortly. N...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to face delays due to high grain moisture and poor field conditions in some areas. Despite elevated moisture levels, an increasing number of farmers began harvesting as crop losses and lodging emerged. Harvest progress has now surpassed 80 percent b...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
Emerging Stability in EU Maize S&D
Key Takeaways: Weather conditions in Europe have continued to deteriorate following both the EU MARS’ latest balance sheet update and the August WASDE, leaving “official” estimates lagging behind the reality observed on the ground. WPI’s models anticipate a 4 perc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to weaken sharply during the second week of August as the Black Sea logistics situation deteriorated. Russia and Ukraine continued exchanging drone and ballistic attacks on seaports, infrastructure and commercial...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is the largest importer of Brazilian maize in the first six months of 2026. Egypt imported about 28.4 percent of maize exports, or about 1.7 million MT. Iran was the third-largest importer at 14.5 percent, or 900,000 MT, fol...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Argentina’s Record Corn Crop Drives Export Growth
Key Takeaways: Argentina is on pace for a record corn crop and record exports in the current marketing year, with abundant supplies likely to keep the country highly competitive in global export markets. Argentina’s record exportable surplus is allowing it to offer highly competitive pri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest progress has fallen further behind the normal pace, with the latest estimate showing more than 15 percentage points of delay versus previous years. Excessive grain moisture and poor road conditions continue to limit field access and slow harvest act...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Black Sea and EU Export Discussion
One of the curious developments from the August WASDE was USDA’s handling of the European, Russian, and Ukrainian corn and wheat balance sheets. The EU has battled significant drought and heat this year, while Russia and Ukraine are increasingly locked in a battle for control over the Bla...
Implications of the Lower-than-Expected August WASDE Yields and Added Acreage
Key Takeaways: Corn yield came in below expectations at 180.7 bushels per acre, validating WPI’s view that last year’s exceptional yield may have anchored analyst estimates higher. Despite slightly higher production for corn, stronger export projections tightened the balance sheet,...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Corn - August 2026
USDA’s August WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is basically for unchanged production as an increased acreage estimate offset a lower yield forecast. Reduced beginning stocks and increased corn exports reduced the estimated ending stocks of U.S. corn to 1.7 billion bushels. The seasonal...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the first week of August following the closure of the Azov and Don ports and restrictions on Black Sea trade linked to the war in Ukraine. Regular air attacks on infrastructure and vessels have fur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation rate is at 14.9 percent for July 2026, up from 14.3 percent in June. Nationwide annual inflation stands at 13.0 percent. Pakistan’s wheat and wheat flour prices continue to move...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Weather continues to dominate the Argentine grain market. Rainfall persisted across much of the country’s agricultural region during the week, accompanied by unusually warm temperatures. As a result, soil moisture profiles remain fully recharged across most production areas. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 July 2026 Russian grain prices declined sharply during the week under review as new-crop supplies entered the market and demand weakened. Corn and barley prices declined, while both milling and feed wheat and rye experienced larger losses. The harvest campaign...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region TMO, the Turkish Grain Board, has announced that milling wheat exports were allowed as of 29 July due to “sufficient domestic supplies.” All milling wheat exports will require approval of an export application; approva...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
E15 Expansion Could Boost Corn Demand, But Adoption Faces Hurdles
Key Takeaways: E15 expansion would support corn and ethanol demand by increasing domestic biofuel consumption and reducing reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Year-round E15 has gained bipartisan momentum, but the policy remains in legislative limbo as lawmakers continue to negotiate provisions...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina's corn harvest has reached 69.8 percent of the national harvestable area. Harvest progress remains constrained primarily in southeastern Buenos Aires, where persistently high humidity has slowed grain dry-down and prevented moisture levels from reaching harvest standards. As a re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Sorghum’s Growing Role in Ethanol Production
Key Takeaways: Sorghum is gaining importance as an alternative ethanol feedstock, particularly in the Southern Plains where ethanol plants can utilize the grain based on relative pricing and availability compared to corn. Sorghum’s drought tolerance makes it a valuable alternative to cor...
Small Ruminants: A Global Protein System the U.S. Market Has Yet to Price In
Executive Summary Sheep and goats represent one of the largest livestock protein systems in the world, with an estimated 2.3 billion head globally; however, they remain almost entirely absent from U.S. agricultural policy, trade strategy, and market forecasting. The U.S. small ruminant herd, at...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 July 2026 Bearish sentiment dominated the Russian grain market as the new harvest accelerated and supplies increased. Prices also weakened in eastern Russia ahead of harvest, reflecting expectations of ample supplies and Kazakhstan's import ban on Russian whea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Brazil’s Emergence as a Major Pork Exporter
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s pork exports have more than doubled since 2019 as competitive feed costs, ASF-free status, and expanding global demand have strengthened the country’s position in international markets. Brazil’s abundant domestic production of corn and soybeans provide...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco and Kazakhstan are looking at ways to expand their grain import/export programs, according to details of a recent meeting in Casablanca. Kazakhstan has grain (mainly wheat) and flour exports of 15.3 MMT and is looking at n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting advanced another 5.7 percentage points over the past week, reaching 97.7 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares despite persistent rainfall across the country's agricultural region. Planting is now complete in the western production areas and the Northern...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Section 301: A New Tariff Architecture
Just when we thought it was safe to step outside and enjoy some certainty in the world of international commerce, the Trump Administration announced on Thursday afternoon a barrage of tariffs on 60 countries based on its recent Section 301 investigations. Section 301 permits the executive branc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.39/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $332.9/short ton, up $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Wild Wednesday: Weather, War and Worry
Grains posted strong gains today, putting the bulls firmly in the driver’s seat. There was no shortage of fuel for the move, with three W’s driving the rally: weather, war and worry. Weather: Cooler temperatures are temporarily easing stress across the Northern Plains and Midwest, b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 July 2026 New-crop trading dominated the Russian grain market during the week as old-crop business largely came to an end. Most transactions shifted to new-crop supplies, establishing new price ranges across the market. Bearish sentiment prevailed across most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.3/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Momentum, Weather; Soybeans Sag on Quiet Exports
What You Need to Know Today: Grain futures fell hard overnight after the USDA’s Crop Conditions report showed better-than-expected ratings for corn and soybeans, despite difficult weather last week. The Conditions report was even more bearish in light of meaningfully beneficial rains acr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has just held its first meeting of the Committee on GM Corn. The Committee was established to "undertake an objective, science-based, and evidence-driven review of Pakistan’s policy regarding the commercialization o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2625/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $5.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Pop on China Buying; Weather Fuels Corn Rally; Cattle Score Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate with the two sides exchanging attacks over the weekend. President Trump said Iran “will pay” for recent attacks that claimed the lives of U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. There are some signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Russia’s Diesel Export Ban Tightens Global Fuel Markets and Raises Agricultural Costs
Key Takeaways: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and increasing dependence on alternative exporters. Limited refining capacity and logistical constraints make diesel markets especially sensitive to supply disruptions. Diesel supply disruptions are more difficu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest delays continue to complicate Argentina's corn market. Persistently high humidity, combined with scattered rainfall across key producing regions, continues to slow harvest progress. In southern Buenos Aires, harvesting remains constrained by poor field access, while across central...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Tensions Driving Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes, with the U.S. hitting Iranian bridges, energy sites, and military infrastructure. Iran launched a missile into Kuwait that damaged a desalination plant. Crude oil futures surged on heightened Middle East tensions, providing supp...
Crops on Fire: The EU Corn Outlook
Key Takeaways: The EU heatwaves have coincided with key maize crop reproductive timing and featured high nighttime temperatures, a cruel two-sided blow to maize yields. France, much of western Europe, and Hungary have suffered the worst of the heat, with yield potential collapsing. WPI&r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Cover Crops Gain Momentum as a Tool to Improve Soil Health
Key Takeaways: Cover crops are gaining adoption as farmers seek to improve soil health, reduce erosion, and build more resilient cropping systems. While cover crops do not provide immediate revenue, their long-term benefits include improved nutrient retention, water management, and soil produc...
Ethanol Margin and Corn Use Outlook
The latest EIA data showed some interesting anomalies in the ethanol industry, changes that will have a material impact on the industry’s profits and corn consumption for 2025/26 and early 2026/27. The EIA reported that ethanol production fell 4.8 percent for the week ending 10 July...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 July 2026 New-crop price formation remained underway during the week, with bearish price movement concentrated in southern Russia and the Volga Valley, where harvest begins first and export access is strongest. Price volatility remains elevated across producing...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria's new Russian logistics hub at Tartous port is expected to be operational by the end of July. It is expected to handle 250,000 MT of cargo per month, including wheat and other grains. Initial shipments are expected to be Rus...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Recent Rallies Lose Steam
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to discuss agriculture and non-tariff trade barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington later this month, potentially opening the door to additional U.S. agricultural purchases or improved marke...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 31 August)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco is reported to be resuming soft wheat imports on 16 September 2026, ending the three-month ban on imports that had begun on 1 June 2026. The government will announce the details of the 2026 wheat support program shortly. N...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to face delays due to high grain moisture and poor field conditions in some areas. Despite elevated moisture levels, an increasing number of farmers began harvesting as crop losses and lodging emerged. Harvest progress has now surpassed 80 percent b...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
Emerging Stability in EU Maize S&D
Key Takeaways: Weather conditions in Europe have continued to deteriorate following both the EU MARS’ latest balance sheet update and the August WASDE, leaving “official” estimates lagging behind the reality observed on the ground. WPI’s models anticipate a 4 perc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to weaken sharply during the second week of August as the Black Sea logistics situation deteriorated. Russia and Ukraine continued exchanging drone and ballistic attacks on seaports, infrastructure and commercial...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is the largest importer of Brazilian maize in the first six months of 2026. Egypt imported about 28.4 percent of maize exports, or about 1.7 million MT. Iran was the third-largest importer at 14.5 percent, or 900,000 MT, fol...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Argentina’s Record Corn Crop Drives Export Growth
Key Takeaways: Argentina is on pace for a record corn crop and record exports in the current marketing year, with abundant supplies likely to keep the country highly competitive in global export markets. Argentina’s record exportable surplus is allowing it to offer highly competitive pri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest progress has fallen further behind the normal pace, with the latest estimate showing more than 15 percentage points of delay versus previous years. Excessive grain moisture and poor road conditions continue to limit field access and slow harvest act...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Black Sea and EU Export Discussion
One of the curious developments from the August WASDE was USDA’s handling of the European, Russian, and Ukrainian corn and wheat balance sheets. The EU has battled significant drought and heat this year, while Russia and Ukraine are increasingly locked in a battle for control over the Bla...
Implications of the Lower-than-Expected August WASDE Yields and Added Acreage
Key Takeaways: Corn yield came in below expectations at 180.7 bushels per acre, validating WPI’s view that last year’s exceptional yield may have anchored analyst estimates higher. Despite slightly higher production for corn, stronger export projections tightened the balance sheet,...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Corn - August 2026
USDA’s August WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is basically for unchanged production as an increased acreage estimate offset a lower yield forecast. Reduced beginning stocks and increased corn exports reduced the estimated ending stocks of U.S. corn to 1.7 billion bushels. The seasonal...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the first week of August following the closure of the Azov and Don ports and restrictions on Black Sea trade linked to the war in Ukraine. Regular air attacks on infrastructure and vessels have fur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation rate is at 14.9 percent for July 2026, up from 14.3 percent in June. Nationwide annual inflation stands at 13.0 percent. Pakistan’s wheat and wheat flour prices continue to move...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Weather continues to dominate the Argentine grain market. Rainfall persisted across much of the country’s agricultural region during the week, accompanied by unusually warm temperatures. As a result, soil moisture profiles remain fully recharged across most production areas. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 July 2026 Russian grain prices declined sharply during the week under review as new-crop supplies entered the market and demand weakened. Corn and barley prices declined, while both milling and feed wheat and rye experienced larger losses. The harvest campaign...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region TMO, the Turkish Grain Board, has announced that milling wheat exports were allowed as of 29 July due to “sufficient domestic supplies.” All milling wheat exports will require approval of an export application; approva...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
E15 Expansion Could Boost Corn Demand, But Adoption Faces Hurdles
Key Takeaways: E15 expansion would support corn and ethanol demand by increasing domestic biofuel consumption and reducing reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Year-round E15 has gained bipartisan momentum, but the policy remains in legislative limbo as lawmakers continue to negotiate provisions...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina's corn harvest has reached 69.8 percent of the national harvestable area. Harvest progress remains constrained primarily in southeastern Buenos Aires, where persistently high humidity has slowed grain dry-down and prevented moisture levels from reaching harvest standards. As a re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Sorghum’s Growing Role in Ethanol Production
Key Takeaways: Sorghum is gaining importance as an alternative ethanol feedstock, particularly in the Southern Plains where ethanol plants can utilize the grain based on relative pricing and availability compared to corn. Sorghum’s drought tolerance makes it a valuable alternative to cor...
Small Ruminants: A Global Protein System the U.S. Market Has Yet to Price In
Executive Summary Sheep and goats represent one of the largest livestock protein systems in the world, with an estimated 2.3 billion head globally; however, they remain almost entirely absent from U.S. agricultural policy, trade strategy, and market forecasting. The U.S. small ruminant herd, at...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 July 2026 Bearish sentiment dominated the Russian grain market as the new harvest accelerated and supplies increased. Prices also weakened in eastern Russia ahead of harvest, reflecting expectations of ample supplies and Kazakhstan's import ban on Russian whea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Brazil’s Emergence as a Major Pork Exporter
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s pork exports have more than doubled since 2019 as competitive feed costs, ASF-free status, and expanding global demand have strengthened the country’s position in international markets. Brazil’s abundant domestic production of corn and soybeans provide...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco and Kazakhstan are looking at ways to expand their grain import/export programs, according to details of a recent meeting in Casablanca. Kazakhstan has grain (mainly wheat) and flour exports of 15.3 MMT and is looking at n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting advanced another 5.7 percentage points over the past week, reaching 97.7 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares despite persistent rainfall across the country's agricultural region. Planting is now complete in the western production areas and the Northern...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Section 301: A New Tariff Architecture
Just when we thought it was safe to step outside and enjoy some certainty in the world of international commerce, the Trump Administration announced on Thursday afternoon a barrage of tariffs on 60 countries based on its recent Section 301 investigations. Section 301 permits the executive branc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.39/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $332.9/short ton, up $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Wild Wednesday: Weather, War and Worry
Grains posted strong gains today, putting the bulls firmly in the driver’s seat. There was no shortage of fuel for the move, with three W’s driving the rally: weather, war and worry. Weather: Cooler temperatures are temporarily easing stress across the Northern Plains and Midwest, b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 July 2026 New-crop trading dominated the Russian grain market during the week as old-crop business largely came to an end. Most transactions shifted to new-crop supplies, establishing new price ranges across the market. Bearish sentiment prevailed across most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.3/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Momentum, Weather; Soybeans Sag on Quiet Exports
What You Need to Know Today: Grain futures fell hard overnight after the USDA’s Crop Conditions report showed better-than-expected ratings for corn and soybeans, despite difficult weather last week. The Conditions report was even more bearish in light of meaningfully beneficial rains acr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has just held its first meeting of the Committee on GM Corn. The Committee was established to "undertake an objective, science-based, and evidence-driven review of Pakistan’s policy regarding the commercialization o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2625/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $5.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Pop on China Buying; Weather Fuels Corn Rally; Cattle Score Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate with the two sides exchanging attacks over the weekend. President Trump said Iran “will pay” for recent attacks that claimed the lives of U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. There are some signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Russia’s Diesel Export Ban Tightens Global Fuel Markets and Raises Agricultural Costs
Key Takeaways: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and increasing dependence on alternative exporters. Limited refining capacity and logistical constraints make diesel markets especially sensitive to supply disruptions. Diesel supply disruptions are more difficu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest delays continue to complicate Argentina's corn market. Persistently high humidity, combined with scattered rainfall across key producing regions, continues to slow harvest progress. In southern Buenos Aires, harvesting remains constrained by poor field access, while across central...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Tensions Driving Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes, with the U.S. hitting Iranian bridges, energy sites, and military infrastructure. Iran launched a missile into Kuwait that damaged a desalination plant. Crude oil futures surged on heightened Middle East tensions, providing supp...
Crops on Fire: The EU Corn Outlook
Key Takeaways: The EU heatwaves have coincided with key maize crop reproductive timing and featured high nighttime temperatures, a cruel two-sided blow to maize yields. France, much of western Europe, and Hungary have suffered the worst of the heat, with yield potential collapsing. WPI&r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Cover Crops Gain Momentum as a Tool to Improve Soil Health
Key Takeaways: Cover crops are gaining adoption as farmers seek to improve soil health, reduce erosion, and build more resilient cropping systems. While cover crops do not provide immediate revenue, their long-term benefits include improved nutrient retention, water management, and soil produc...
Ethanol Margin and Corn Use Outlook
The latest EIA data showed some interesting anomalies in the ethanol industry, changes that will have a material impact on the industry’s profits and corn consumption for 2025/26 and early 2026/27. The EIA reported that ethanol production fell 4.8 percent for the week ending 10 July...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 July 2026 New-crop price formation remained underway during the week, with bearish price movement concentrated in southern Russia and the Volga Valley, where harvest begins first and export access is strongest. Price volatility remains elevated across producing...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria's new Russian logistics hub at Tartous port is expected to be operational by the end of July. It is expected to handle 250,000 MT of cargo per month, including wheat and other grains. Initial shipments are expected to be Rus...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...