Recent Livestock Analysis
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7525/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina. Trading volume was predictably light on Christmas Eve, as traders showed little interest in adding risk during the seasonal trading slowdow...
Livestock Industry Margins
Both beef and pork packer margins improved last week on stronger spot meat demand and pricing while producer margins showed mixed trends. Margins for feedlot placements, weaned hog placements, and pigs farrowed last week all fell from the prior week. In the case of feedlots and wean-to-finish h...
Hogs and Pigs with Bearish Undertones
On 23 December, USDA released its quarterly (Sept-Nov) Hogs & Pigs report and it was bearish. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.845 million head, up 0.5 percent year-on-year and slightly ahead of the pre-report consensus estimates.12242024dave1.png 41.47 KBThe typica...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the December 1, 2023 total of 12.016 million head.Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.80 million head, 4 percent below 2023. Marke...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 percent of last year’s 12 million head. The range of estimates was between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 December 2023. 12192...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector saw mixed trends in profitability over the past week with packer margins improving for both the beef and pork sectors. Beef packing margins have been negative for five weeks now and hog packing margins in the red for three weeks, both of which present a threat to pr...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Red Meat and Broiler Trade
October meat and livestock trade data was released on Friday. Beef exports are down 2.6 percent at 2.5 billion pounds, following lower U.S. beef production (down 0.4 percent) and higher prices. October exports to Canada fell 23.7 percent. Exports to Japan were flat year to date at 543 million p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with drought no longer pulling ahead of feeder cattle placements. This development comes on top of the normal seasonal pattern of high calf prices thi...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most widespread strength on the heels of a record-breaking U.S. crush in November, as reported by the USDA on Monday, and from Tuesday’s rally in crud...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $290.4/short ton, up $2.5 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONIraq’s grain import requirements for 2024/25 are expected to be lower according to the FAO as a result of the good 2023/24 wheat crop. Wheat imports are seen dropping by 23 percent to about 1.8 MMT. Iraq has also added a...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8525/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.9/short ton, down $4 f...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures trading mostly reinforced current trends. Those include:Trading this week lopped off the most value from wheat and lean hogsThe March HRW c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.895/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $3.5 from yest...
Imports of Mexican Cattle Temporarily Suspended
A week ago today, on 22 November, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection ch...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.4/short ton, up $4 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $4.5 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector continues to see profitability decline as beef and pork prices have been relatively stable while animal costs have risen. Both beef and pork packer margins turned negative last week, though the losses are shallow in the pork sector and deeply red for the beef indust...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8575/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4.4 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
Cattle on Feed 112024
U.S. Cattle on Feed for slaughter in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.29 million head, 5 percent above 2023. Marketing of the fed cattle during October totaled 1.85 million head,...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Once again, placements surprised to the upside compared to pre-report analysts’ consensus expectations. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.986 million head, which was slightly above last year’s 11.956 million head. Total feedlot inve...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100 percent of last year’s 11.9 million head, at a range of estimates between 99.5 percent and 101.3 percent of 1 November 2023. This would be 11.6 mil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7775/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, down $1.7...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Turkey is a Turkey
And we don’t mean Türkiye. Turkey can mean unsuccessful and the production and trade in the domesticated large bird called the turkey leaves much to be desired. It originated in North America and that is where it has mostly stayed. The U.S. produces about half the world’s turkey meat. U.S. and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.905/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.4/short ton, up $0.8 from yest...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 December 2024Last week, the Russian grain markets showed the first signs of the holiday season with rather weak trading. Russian grain markets and especially export business will adjust to the Christmas season globally which will then enter Russian Orthodox Christ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7525/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Consolidate in Pre-Christmas Trade
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal closed higher ahead of the Christmas holiday, driven by short covering, technical factors, and increasing dryness in Argentina. Trading volume was predictably light on Christmas Eve, as traders showed little interest in adding risk during the seasonal trading slowdow...
Livestock Industry Margins
Both beef and pork packer margins improved last week on stronger spot meat demand and pricing while producer margins showed mixed trends. Margins for feedlot placements, weaned hog placements, and pigs farrowed last week all fell from the prior week. In the case of feedlots and wean-to-finish h...
Hogs and Pigs with Bearish Undertones
On 23 December, USDA released its quarterly (Sept-Nov) Hogs & Pigs report and it was bearish. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.845 million head, up 0.5 percent year-on-year and slightly ahead of the pre-report consensus estimates.12242024dave1.png 41.47 KBThe typica...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.695/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $4.2 from yest...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was 11.982 million head on December 1, 2024 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. This inventory was slightly below the December 1, 2023 total of 12.016 million head.Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.80 million head, 4 percent below 2023. Marke...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.745/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302.2/short ton, up $11.2 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.63/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $4.9 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.9 percent of last year’s 12 million head. The range of estimates was between 99.4 percent and 100.3 percent of 1 December 2023. 12192...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector saw mixed trends in profitability over the past week with packer margins improving for both the beef and pork sectors. Beef packing margins have been negative for five weeks now and hog packing margins in the red for three weeks, both of which present a threat to pr...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
Red Meat and Broiler Trade
October meat and livestock trade data was released on Friday. Beef exports are down 2.6 percent at 2.5 billion pounds, following lower U.S. beef production (down 0.4 percent) and higher prices. October exports to Canada fell 23.7 percent. Exports to Japan were flat year to date at 543 million p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with drought no longer pulling ahead of feeder cattle placements. This development comes on top of the normal seasonal pattern of high calf prices thi...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most widespread strength on the heels of a record-breaking U.S. crush in November, as reported by the USDA on Monday, and from Tuesday’s rally in crud...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $290.4/short ton, up $2.5 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONIraq’s grain import requirements for 2024/25 are expected to be lower according to the FAO as a result of the good 2023/24 wheat crop. Wheat imports are seen dropping by 23 percent to about 1.8 MMT. Iraq has also added a...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8525/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.9/short ton, down $4 f...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures trading mostly reinforced current trends. Those include:Trading this week lopped off the most value from wheat and lean hogsThe March HRW c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.895/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $3.5 from yest...
Imports of Mexican Cattle Temporarily Suspended
A week ago today, on 22 November, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection ch...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.4/short ton, up $4 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $4.5 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector continues to see profitability decline as beef and pork prices have been relatively stable while animal costs have risen. Both beef and pork packer margins turned negative last week, though the losses are shallow in the pork sector and deeply red for the beef indust...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8575/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4.4 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...
Cattle on Feed 112024
U.S. Cattle on Feed for slaughter in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.29 million head, 5 percent above 2023. Marketing of the fed cattle during October totaled 1.85 million head,...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Once again, placements surprised to the upside compared to pre-report analysts’ consensus expectations. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.986 million head, which was slightly above last year’s 11.956 million head. Total feedlot inve...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100 percent of last year’s 11.9 million head, at a range of estimates between 99.5 percent and 101.3 percent of 1 November 2023. This would be 11.6 mil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7775/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, down $1.7...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Turkey is a Turkey
And we don’t mean Türkiye. Turkey can mean unsuccessful and the production and trade in the domesticated large bird called the turkey leaves much to be desired. It originated in North America and that is where it has mostly stayed. The U.S. produces about half the world’s turkey meat. U.S. and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.905/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.4/short ton, up $0.8 from yest...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...