Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, up $5.8 from...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Yield, Boosts Soybeans; Global Stocks Adequate but Vulnerable
What You Need to Know Today: USDA cut the 2026 corn yield forecast by 1.6 BPA to 179.6, shaving 141 Mbu off the crop. Corn ending stocks were cut by 91 Mbu to a level that pushed the ending stocks-to-use (ESU) ratio to 10.8 percent. Conversely, USDA raised the soybean yield forecast 0.2 BPA to...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Rally as Packer Profits Surge
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean futures were lower to open the week, with funds still in control and in a selling mood. The upcoming WASDE report on Tuesday is also likely to feature larger corn and soybean stocks, which helped put grain futures on the defensive. Wheat futures we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.9375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Look to WASDE for Direction
What You Need to Know Today: Market attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, with analysts anticipating a modest reduction in U.S. corn production estimates and an increase in soybean production. The report could provide fresh direction for grain markets as traders reass...
“Lame Duck” and “Farm Bill”: Mutually Exclusive?
The election is over – for the most part. Counting is still underway in some states, including Alaska, where a ranked-choice voting system is in place for the Senate race, and Mississippi, as well as in some House districts. But as of now, Democrats have secured at least 54 Senate seats,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money sold a net 235,000 agricultural futures contracts during the week, cutting the aggregate net long 52.8 percent to 210,000 contracts. Funds have reduced their aggregate agricultural net long by 423,000 contracts over the past two weeks, with this week’s selling exceeding the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.8825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Equity Market Selloff Weighs on Agricultural Commodities
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. equities declined sharply Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s post-election rally as investors continued selling technology stocks amid concerns that Democratic gains in the midterm elections could slow investment in artificial intelligence and data center d...
Livestock Roundup: Meat State Shake Up on Senate Agriculture Committee
The Senate Agriculture Committee will undergo significant changes in the new Congress beginning in January 2027, including several major shifts in meat-producing states. The Democratic Party’s tsunami swept Senator Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) out of office, and out of the seat once held by...
Milk Pricing with The Calf in the Ledger
What dairy breakeven looks like with and without the beef-on-dairy boom To put a dollar value on that question, this analysis removes the calf check from the USDA ledger and examines how many of the last five years would have reached breakeven without it. Key Takeaways: Milk and other income a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.0225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: The Votes Are In. The Market’s Still Deciding.
The US election is over, but the market’s debate is just beginning. A shift in Washington’s balance of power is changing policy expectations, while developments involving Iran and an early decline in the dollar are adding to the uncertainty. Now traders must decide how much of that...
Blue Wave Crashes on Ag Policy
Key Takeaways: The 2026 U.S. Midterm elections surprised many pundits and have created significant changes in how agriculture and major agricultural production states will be represented in Congress. Details on how candidates expect to address agricultural issues are still limited, and no offi...
Japan’s Agricultural Import Dependence Supports Consistent Demand
Key Takeaways: Japan’s mountainous geography and limited farmland constrain domestic agricultural production, while its highly developed economy and substantial purchasing power make it one of the world’s most important agricultural import markets. Japan’s calorie-based food...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Ags Turn Red as Election Map Blinks Blue
What You Need to Know Today: Corn broke sharply lower after overnight headlines that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials would meet for peace talks on 10 and 11 November. Mexico made its second large purchase of U.S. corn in as many days, bringing total purchases this week to just over 2 MM...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $89/head last week, up $53 from the prior week as declining fed cattle prices more than offset weaker beef cutout values. Fed cattle prices fell $3.35/cwt to $224/cwt while the Choice cutout declined $2.49/cwt to $366/cwt, improving packer profits. Despite the re...
Port Strike Averted, but New Deadline Looming and Pork Market Precarious
The brewing West Coast port strike involving about 250 maritime watchmen, or approximately 2 percent of port employees, has been postponed until 5 November after the workers agreed to extend the strike deadline. The watchmen control and inspect truck and employee access at terminal gates. A sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.6/short ton, down $5 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Rebounds on Exports; Bears Control CBOT and CME Otherwise
What You Need to Know Today: Funds remain in control of the market, which means broadly bearish trade for the ag sector. Monday’s massive corn export sale to Mexico helped trigger some short covering and a bit of other end-user buying in corn, which could help stabilize the market. Wheat...
Pork Market Weakness Extends Beyond Seasonal Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. hog and pork prices have declined sharply, with December lean hog futures ending October at $58.875/cwt and the pork cutout reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Seasonal increases in hog slaughter and pork production have contributed to price weakness, although the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Livestock Roundup: New AMS Reports and NWS Update
The new USDA report from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the newly dubbed South Central Daily Direct Slaughter Cattle Report Summary, showed that negotiated cash trade in the region as of Tuesday was mostly inactive, with only ligh...
The Wrong Side of the Ledger: Calf Prices Carried Dairy Since 2021, and Now They Are Straining the Herd
Key Takeaways: Milk alone has not covered the full economic cost in any year since 2021: milk revenue fell short by $4.50, $2.15, $6.50, $1.27 and $2.34 per hundredweight in 2021 through 2025. Calf and cattle prices decided whether dairies cleared cost: cattle and other income lifted total rev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 October 2026 The Russian grain market continued its recovery during the week, although prices remained volatile across regions. Wheat was notably bullish, while feed barley and corn were slower to appreciate, primarily because of weaker export demand amid logi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
Inaugural New Fed Cattle Report Was a Bust
Yesterday, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released a new report of negotiated cash purchases of cattle under the mandatory price report. The report included Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. The goal of the report was to solve the confidentiality issues e...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins plunged $105/head last week to $36/head as higher cattle prices combined with declining wholesale beef values to sharply compress packer profits. Fed cattle prices rose nearly $3/cwt to $227/cwt while the Choice cutout fell $4.75/cwt to $368/cwt. Margins have deteriorated $1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.55/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4125/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.2/short ton, down $5.9 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil’s Election Results Have Broader Market Implications
What You Need to Know Today: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro despite trailing in the first round of voting. The surprise victory triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian financial market...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Bearish Week on a Mixed Note; Bullish COF and Cold Storage Data
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices extended their rally today, supported by several developments, including escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50 perc...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record-Low Placements and Marketings Extend Their Streaks
USDA released its October Cattle on Feed report Friday, showing 11.4 million cattle in feedlots with capacity for 1,000 head or more, slightly below last year. September placements were the lowest for the month since records began in 1996, marking the third consecutive month of placements sett...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
Total Red Meat & Poultry September 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 1.97 billion pounds, down 1.4 percent from August despite typically increasing 0.8 percent during the month, and were 1.5 percent below September 2025 levels. The decline pushed total inventories to a new five...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fifth straight week, selling a net 159,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 20.1 percent to 633,000 contracts. Corn again accounted for roughly half the weekly selling...
Cattle on Feed - Oct 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed for the slaughter totaled 11.4 million head on October 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.78 million head - 12 percent below 2025. Marketings of cattle during September totaled 1.52 million head - 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.25/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $346.1/short ton, down $1.2 from...
Market Commentary: Strong Export Sales Support Grains; Screwworm Concerns Grow
What You Need to Know Today: New World screwworm is back in the headlines after new cases were found in a hunter-harvested elk in Texas and a beef cow in New Mexico. The detection in wildlife could further complicate containment efforts, as implementing effective biosecurity measures is consid...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview, Fed Cattle Report Changes, Feedlot Closures
Cattle on Feed Expectations USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report that will show cattle inventory statistics as of 1 October will be released tomorrow, 23 October. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100.3 percent of last year, which imp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.53/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.3/short ton, down $1 f...
Dairy: From Powder to Protein
Key Takeaways: Demand and capacity decide where milk growth lands. Italian cheese is up 4.2 percent in 2026, and milk output is growing fastest in Kansas, South Dakota and Texas, where the new plants are located. Price spreads decide where the marginal milk goes. The Class IV premium over Clas...
Market Commentary: At the Crossroads of Pressure and Possibility
Markets are caught between reasons to keep selling and reasons to take another look. Fund liquidation and renewed peace talks are pressuring grains, while fresh export business and some diesel relief offer encouragement. Corn recovered nearly 10 cents from its low to finish higher, while soybea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to $141/head last week, down $55 from the prior week as fed cattle prices strengthened while the Choice cutout remained nearly unchanged. The cutout held near $373/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed $4/cwt to $224/cwt, narrowing processor profits. Despite the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Newcastle Disease Threatens Brazilian Poultry Exports, but Impact May Be Limited
Key Takeaways: Brazil confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina on 18 October, raising concerns about potential disruptions to poultry exports despite the outbreak being confined to a single facility thus far. Mexico and Malaysia have imposed nationwi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, up $5.8 from...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Yield, Boosts Soybeans; Global Stocks Adequate but Vulnerable
What You Need to Know Today: USDA cut the 2026 corn yield forecast by 1.6 BPA to 179.6, shaving 141 Mbu off the crop. Corn ending stocks were cut by 91 Mbu to a level that pushed the ending stocks-to-use (ESU) ratio to 10.8 percent. Conversely, USDA raised the soybean yield forecast 0.2 BPA to...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Rally as Packer Profits Surge
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean futures were lower to open the week, with funds still in control and in a selling mood. The upcoming WASDE report on Tuesday is also likely to feature larger corn and soybean stocks, which helped put grain futures on the defensive. Wheat futures we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.9375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Look to WASDE for Direction
What You Need to Know Today: Market attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, with analysts anticipating a modest reduction in U.S. corn production estimates and an increase in soybean production. The report could provide fresh direction for grain markets as traders reass...
“Lame Duck” and “Farm Bill”: Mutually Exclusive?
The election is over – for the most part. Counting is still underway in some states, including Alaska, where a ranked-choice voting system is in place for the Senate race, and Mississippi, as well as in some House districts. But as of now, Democrats have secured at least 54 Senate seats,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money sold a net 235,000 agricultural futures contracts during the week, cutting the aggregate net long 52.8 percent to 210,000 contracts. Funds have reduced their aggregate agricultural net long by 423,000 contracts over the past two weeks, with this week’s selling exceeding the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.8825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Equity Market Selloff Weighs on Agricultural Commodities
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. equities declined sharply Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s post-election rally as investors continued selling technology stocks amid concerns that Democratic gains in the midterm elections could slow investment in artificial intelligence and data center d...
Livestock Roundup: Meat State Shake Up on Senate Agriculture Committee
The Senate Agriculture Committee will undergo significant changes in the new Congress beginning in January 2027, including several major shifts in meat-producing states. The Democratic Party’s tsunami swept Senator Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) out of office, and out of the seat once held by...
Milk Pricing with The Calf in the Ledger
What dairy breakeven looks like with and without the beef-on-dairy boom To put a dollar value on that question, this analysis removes the calf check from the USDA ledger and examines how many of the last five years would have reached breakeven without it. Key Takeaways: Milk and other income a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.0225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: The Votes Are In. The Market’s Still Deciding.
The US election is over, but the market’s debate is just beginning. A shift in Washington’s balance of power is changing policy expectations, while developments involving Iran and an early decline in the dollar are adding to the uncertainty. Now traders must decide how much of that...
Blue Wave Crashes on Ag Policy
Key Takeaways: The 2026 U.S. Midterm elections surprised many pundits and have created significant changes in how agriculture and major agricultural production states will be represented in Congress. Details on how candidates expect to address agricultural issues are still limited, and no offi...
Japan’s Agricultural Import Dependence Supports Consistent Demand
Key Takeaways: Japan’s mountainous geography and limited farmland constrain domestic agricultural production, while its highly developed economy and substantial purchasing power make it one of the world’s most important agricultural import markets. Japan’s calorie-based food...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Ags Turn Red as Election Map Blinks Blue
What You Need to Know Today: Corn broke sharply lower after overnight headlines that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials would meet for peace talks on 10 and 11 November. Mexico made its second large purchase of U.S. corn in as many days, bringing total purchases this week to just over 2 MM...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $89/head last week, up $53 from the prior week as declining fed cattle prices more than offset weaker beef cutout values. Fed cattle prices fell $3.35/cwt to $224/cwt while the Choice cutout declined $2.49/cwt to $366/cwt, improving packer profits. Despite the re...
Port Strike Averted, but New Deadline Looming and Pork Market Precarious
The brewing West Coast port strike involving about 250 maritime watchmen, or approximately 2 percent of port employees, has been postponed until 5 November after the workers agreed to extend the strike deadline. The watchmen control and inspect truck and employee access at terminal gates. A sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.6/short ton, down $5 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Rebounds on Exports; Bears Control CBOT and CME Otherwise
What You Need to Know Today: Funds remain in control of the market, which means broadly bearish trade for the ag sector. Monday’s massive corn export sale to Mexico helped trigger some short covering and a bit of other end-user buying in corn, which could help stabilize the market. Wheat...
Pork Market Weakness Extends Beyond Seasonal Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. hog and pork prices have declined sharply, with December lean hog futures ending October at $58.875/cwt and the pork cutout reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Seasonal increases in hog slaughter and pork production have contributed to price weakness, although the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Livestock Roundup: New AMS Reports and NWS Update
The new USDA report from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the newly dubbed South Central Daily Direct Slaughter Cattle Report Summary, showed that negotiated cash trade in the region as of Tuesday was mostly inactive, with only ligh...
The Wrong Side of the Ledger: Calf Prices Carried Dairy Since 2021, and Now They Are Straining the Herd
Key Takeaways: Milk alone has not covered the full economic cost in any year since 2021: milk revenue fell short by $4.50, $2.15, $6.50, $1.27 and $2.34 per hundredweight in 2021 through 2025. Calf and cattle prices decided whether dairies cleared cost: cattle and other income lifted total rev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 October 2026 The Russian grain market continued its recovery during the week, although prices remained volatile across regions. Wheat was notably bullish, while feed barley and corn were slower to appreciate, primarily because of weaker export demand amid logi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
Inaugural New Fed Cattle Report Was a Bust
Yesterday, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released a new report of negotiated cash purchases of cattle under the mandatory price report. The report included Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. The goal of the report was to solve the confidentiality issues e...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins plunged $105/head last week to $36/head as higher cattle prices combined with declining wholesale beef values to sharply compress packer profits. Fed cattle prices rose nearly $3/cwt to $227/cwt while the Choice cutout fell $4.75/cwt to $368/cwt. Margins have deteriorated $1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.55/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4125/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.2/short ton, down $5.9 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil’s Election Results Have Broader Market Implications
What You Need to Know Today: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro despite trailing in the first round of voting. The surprise victory triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian financial market...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Bearish Week on a Mixed Note; Bullish COF and Cold Storage Data
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices extended their rally today, supported by several developments, including escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50 perc...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record-Low Placements and Marketings Extend Their Streaks
USDA released its October Cattle on Feed report Friday, showing 11.4 million cattle in feedlots with capacity for 1,000 head or more, slightly below last year. September placements were the lowest for the month since records began in 1996, marking the third consecutive month of placements sett...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
Total Red Meat & Poultry September 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 1.97 billion pounds, down 1.4 percent from August despite typically increasing 0.8 percent during the month, and were 1.5 percent below September 2025 levels. The decline pushed total inventories to a new five...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fifth straight week, selling a net 159,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 20.1 percent to 633,000 contracts. Corn again accounted for roughly half the weekly selling...
Cattle on Feed - Oct 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed for the slaughter totaled 11.4 million head on October 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.78 million head - 12 percent below 2025. Marketings of cattle during September totaled 1.52 million head - 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.25/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $346.1/short ton, down $1.2 from...
Market Commentary: Strong Export Sales Support Grains; Screwworm Concerns Grow
What You Need to Know Today: New World screwworm is back in the headlines after new cases were found in a hunter-harvested elk in Texas and a beef cow in New Mexico. The detection in wildlife could further complicate containment efforts, as implementing effective biosecurity measures is consid...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview, Fed Cattle Report Changes, Feedlot Closures
Cattle on Feed Expectations USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report that will show cattle inventory statistics as of 1 October will be released tomorrow, 23 October. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100.3 percent of last year, which imp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.53/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.3/short ton, down $1 f...
Dairy: From Powder to Protein
Key Takeaways: Demand and capacity decide where milk growth lands. Italian cheese is up 4.2 percent in 2026, and milk output is growing fastest in Kansas, South Dakota and Texas, where the new plants are located. Price spreads decide where the marginal milk goes. The Class IV premium over Clas...
Market Commentary: At the Crossroads of Pressure and Possibility
Markets are caught between reasons to keep selling and reasons to take another look. Fund liquidation and renewed peace talks are pressuring grains, while fresh export business and some diesel relief offer encouragement. Corn recovered nearly 10 cents from its low to finish higher, while soybea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to $141/head last week, down $55 from the prior week as fed cattle prices strengthened while the Choice cutout remained nearly unchanged. The cutout held near $373/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed $4/cwt to $224/cwt, narrowing processor profits. Despite the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Newcastle Disease Threatens Brazilian Poultry Exports, but Impact May Be Limited
Key Takeaways: Brazil confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina on 18 October, raising concerns about potential disruptions to poultry exports despite the outbreak being confined to a single facility thus far. Mexico and Malaysia have imposed nationwi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...