Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Feeder Cattle Outlook
Feeder steer prices remain at historic highs across all major regions, averaging 22.9 percent higher year-over- year, and 58 percent higher than the five-year average. Some of the biggest gains have been in the Southern Plains, most affected by the imports of Mexican feeder cattle which are pro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Strong meat demand for the first weekend of the unofficial summer grilling season helped both beef and pork packer margins improve last week. Beef packer margins jumped $10 higher and hit their most profitable level in four weeks, which isn’t much to celebrate given margins were previousl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 2 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 26 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 27 May. The WPI staff hopes everyone has a good weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Feeder Cattle Outlook
Feeder steer prices remain at historic highs across all major regions, averaging 22.9 percent higher year-over- year, and 58 percent higher than the five-year average. Some of the biggest gains have been in the Southern Plains, most affected by the imports of Mexican feeder cattle which are pro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Strong meat demand for the first weekend of the unofficial summer grilling season helped both beef and pork packer margins improve last week. Beef packer margins jumped $10 higher and hit their most profitable level in four weeks, which isn’t much to celebrate given margins were previousl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 2 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 26 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 27 May. The WPI staff hopes everyone has a good weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...