Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.545/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 15-21, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 579,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 1,005,600 MT--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.3/short ton, down $0.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.2/short ton, down $5.1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, up $2.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.9/short ton, down $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.585/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.5/short ton, down $2.7...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 8-14, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 519,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 28 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 360,600 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 30 percent from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $3 from ye...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 August 2025 The speed of the harvesting campaign was the key price driver. Improved harvesting pace in the Centre and Black Soil regions made most of the grain prices plummet except for the best milling quality wheat. This is understandable as excessive rains...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.05/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3275/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry announced that the planting of wheat and barley will be “severely reduced” due to low water reserves. Barley planting is going to be almost totally stopped. Vegetable growing and drip-...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 25-31, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 737,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 667,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 38 percent from the prior 4-wee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.3/short ton, down $3...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 July – 1 August 2025 The harmonizing of July old crop and new crop pricing is coming to an end. As harvesting continues with a delay, prices are volatile depending on the region. Delayed harvest often causes bullish sentiments in some individual regions but press...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9075/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.1...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka’s cereal imports in 2025 are seen increasing by about 10 percent to 1.6 MMT, mainly wheat as the country is not a wheat producer. The first maize crop of 2025 was good and is about 7 percent higher than average &nd...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, up $4.5 from y...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 18-24, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 592,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,700 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9575/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.5/short ton, down $2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 July 2025 During the fourth week of the new 2025/26 season, the export market was still the driving force behind pricing patterns. Harvesting entered into the active phase filling the needs on the market to the brim. As a result, domestic prices plummeted. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.095/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.5/short ton, down $2.8...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) may not be able to buy grain from Ukraine as it could be added to the blacklist. Ukraine says that the company has purchased wheat from Russia that was harvested in Russia occupied ar...
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.545/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 15-21, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 579,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 1,005,600 MT--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.3/short ton, down $0.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.2/short ton, down $5.1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, up $2.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.9/short ton, down $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.585/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.5/short ton, down $2.7...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 8-14, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 519,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 28 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 360,600 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 30 percent from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $3 from ye...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 August 2025 The speed of the harvesting campaign was the key price driver. Improved harvesting pace in the Centre and Black Soil regions made most of the grain prices plummet except for the best milling quality wheat. This is understandable as excessive rains...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.05/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3275/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry announced that the planting of wheat and barley will be “severely reduced” due to low water reserves. Barley planting is going to be almost totally stopped. Vegetable growing and drip-...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 25-31, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 737,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 667,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 38 percent from the prior 4-wee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.3/short ton, down $3...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 July – 1 August 2025 The harmonizing of July old crop and new crop pricing is coming to an end. As harvesting continues with a delay, prices are volatile depending on the region. Delayed harvest often causes bullish sentiments in some individual regions but press...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9075/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.1...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka’s cereal imports in 2025 are seen increasing by about 10 percent to 1.6 MMT, mainly wheat as the country is not a wheat producer. The first maize crop of 2025 was good and is about 7 percent higher than average &nd...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, up $4.5 from y...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 18-24, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 592,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,700 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9575/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.5/short ton, down $2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 July 2025 During the fourth week of the new 2025/26 season, the export market was still the driving force behind pricing patterns. Harvesting entered into the active phase filling the needs on the market to the brim. As a result, domestic prices plummeted. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.095/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.5/short ton, down $2.8...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) may not be able to buy grain from Ukraine as it could be added to the blacklist. Ukraine says that the company has purchased wheat from Russia that was harvested in Russia occupied ar...