Recent Equities Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.6 from yesterda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...
Market Commentary
One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Market Commentary
For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other related matters, grain and soy markets were rather quiet overnight and again today. Price movements were measured with trading volume average a...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
No China Trade Deal?
The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent. This sent grain and o...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent average. Basically, it was a tale of two markets today. The grains were stronger, but the soy complex was hammered again. Weekly export sales fo...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
Market Commentary
The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are being heard. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is quoted as saying he hopes that negotiations will be wrapped up when Vice-Premier Liu and his team...
Market Commentary
The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muster up a Turnaround Tuesday. However, it was not to be. Renewed fund selling of corn and soybean contracts kept prices under pressure througho...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Market Commentary
Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however, and regularly scheduled reports such as the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report will be released then. U.S trade negotiators a...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and wheat, which took the worst beating, regained several cents. However, the rally effort was not able to generate any momentum, and it had fade...
Market Commentary
For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading volume. However, that did not adequately prepare traders for what happened during the day session. Wheat and corn markets were pummeled by mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales report, although it was not expected to cause any excitement. The spring blizzard pummeling Nebraska, South Dakota and southern Minnesota w...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Market Commentary
The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone before the report’s release, largely due to better-than-expected winter wheat conditions and a 2 percent planting progress for corn. That...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn steady and wheat lower. Overnight volume was average. This week’s big news will be USDA’s April WASDE (supply and demand), set to...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real deal. President Trump commented that “we’re not there yet” on a final agreement, and he also said farmers will be very happy...
Market Commentary
It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and President Trump will end with an announcement of a trade deal. Such an announcement would likely also include word of a meeting between Trump and Ch...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Market Commentary
There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soybeans holding a couple of cents higher and wheat turning down a like amount. That left corn in the middle and about unchanged. The day sessio...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially in corn. Last Friday’s USDA numbers were simply bearish for the corn market and neutral to slightly positive for wheat and soybeans. M...
Market Commentary
The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s separate analysis for details), and corn got hammered as soon as they were released. More optimistic talk about a trade deal with China did...
Market Commentary
As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents higher, wheat was 6-7 cents lower, and corn was near unchanged. This same price pattern was maintained through the first half of the day sess...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
Market Commentary
It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...
Market Commentary
The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...
Market Commentary
It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...
Market Commentary
Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was nothing in the WASDE that could be considered even slightly bullish. It was the opposite as ending supplies for U.S. wheat and corn were hig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading recess. Yesterday’s changes in open interest showed increases of 22,141 contracts of corn, 16,889 soybean contracts and 7,789 contracts o...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day session found wheat taking an unusual bounce higher, but corn managed only a small gain. Soybeans slipped a couple of cents, and soy produc...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day session. The U.S. and China are reportedly close to reaching agreement on at least the initial phases of a trade deal, and there might be a sig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw grain and soy prices leak slightly lower following Monday’s big losses. Notable was corn open interest, which fell nearly 69,000 contracts. No doubt, some of this was due to liquidation ahead of the first delivery intentions on Thursday. The volume of corn contracts...
Market Commentary
More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...
Market Commentary
In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today’s trading with wheat posting solid gains. The markets remain supported/optimistic based on (apparently) improving trade relations betw...
Market Commentary
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson presented the 2019 projections for grains, oilseeds, planted area and farm income. USDA foresees net farm...
Market Commentary
Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Measuring the effect of ASF on hog populations and feed consumption has become difficult if not impossible, but...
Market Commentary
Following the holiday, grain and soy markets began the overnight session just a bit firmer. That lasted until some selling pressure emerged in wheat, which led to prices being mixed at the trading recess with relatively good volume reported. However, it was not long after trading resumed that s...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes. News from talks in Beijing was sparse. President Trump apparently indicated he would agree to extend the negotiations for 60 days as long as...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Market Commentary
Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Today, though, there was a generally optimistic feeling about both that helped push the soybean and corn markets higher. The next round of trade...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...
Market Commentary
Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an example of his aggressive trade policies but did not mention its recent soybean purchases. He also asked Congress to approve the USMCA trade a...
Market Commentary
Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the February WASDE, are a month late has a great deal to do with it. The last WASDE before the government shutdown came out on 11 December, and mu...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets will want to see all the numbers in the 11 January USDA reports that are to be released this Friday before setting any new direction. U.S. equi...
Market Commentary
Agricultural and equity markets were all about China trade deal optimism today. President Trump was very busy tweeting very positive news about the situation, including China’s indication that it would soon buy another 5 MMT of soybeans as well as corn and wheat in future purchases. That...
Market Commentary
Please note: Late word from the White House meeting between the Chinese trade delegation and President Trump indicates that delegation leader Vice-Premier Liu He said that China would make (more) purchases of U.S. soybeans, presumably as part of the large amount of agricultural products China h...
Market Commentary
The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingly competitive. Some growth in export sales volumes was likely during that period, and traders have been anxious for the reports to resume. H...
Market Commentary
Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports chronologically each Tuesday and Friday until they are caught up. USDA/FAS is tentatively scheduled to release an export sales report on Thurs...
Market Commentary
Many were hopeful that last Friday’s actions to reopen the U.S. government plus some optimism that this week’s meeting with China will go well would have a positive impact on agricultural and equity markets, but just the opposite happened. Wheat, corn and soybean markets were lower...
Market Commentary
Markets didn’t do very much overnight in light volume. Corn and soybean futures were a penny higher with wheat down 1-2 cents. Markets then opened this morning with corn and soybeans steady and wheat 3-4 cents lower. Trading volume today was also very light. With no CFTC Commitment of Tra...
Market Commentary
It is always difficult to trade grain and soy futures based on politics and political rhetoric, and this truism is proving itself once again. Markets were lower yesterday on discouraging comments from various sources about the state of U.S.-Chinese negotiations. They were then buoyed early toda...
Market Commentary
It is now well into the second month of the partial government shutdown, and the blackout of the usual information from USDA continues. The only regular report still coming out is the weekly one from FGIS on the volumes of grain and soybeans inspected for export. This is made possible only by t...
Market Commentary
Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Market Commentary
For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weather. Even if one gives a bullish interpretation to all these factors, though, futures prices cannot go up forever. The soybean market discover...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet again overnight, although soybean futures showed some life early this morning and closed the night session a nickel higher with corn steady. Wheat finished down a penny and started today slightly weaker. The U.S. government is beginning the third week of the partial shutdown...
Market Commentary
Markets closed slightly higher in the Thursday night session on very light volume. They then opened firmer this morning with soybeans quickly jumping to gains of a dime or so. The U.S. government remains in a partial shutdown. To put that in perspective, 75 percent of it is funded and operation...
Market Commentary
Today’s CME closing grain market board was very unusual in the array of tiny price changes compared with that of yesterday. MGEX wheat had the biggest gains, finishing up 2.5-3 cents. Every other change was 1 cent or less except for a 1.25 cent gain for corn and Chicago wheat. While this...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Market Commentary
Markets finished the Sunday night session with corn and soybeans down 3 cents, while wheat markets were mostly steady. They opened almost exactly at those levels this morning, but corn and soybeans were trading near unchanged in the first half hour before turning lower again as the session proc...
Market Commentary
Markets ended the Thursday evening session with wheat down 6 cents, corn up a penny and soybeans steady. Volume was light and continued that way in today’s session, which was expected on the last full trading day before the Christmas holiday break. Markets will close at 1 pm (EST) Monday...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded modestly higher overnight following yesterday’s weakness, although trading volume was in a holiday mode. The market was pulled between improving South American weather forecasts and expectations of more Chinese sales announcements. Prices remained firm early i...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mixed overnight, having traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. As the early morning trading recess approached, wheat prices edged lower. However, soybean prices staying around the prior close in expectation that new large sales to China would be reported by US...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...
Market Commentary
Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...
Market Commentary
It is hard to keep track of the rumors flying around concerning Chinese plans to buy U.S. soybeans. Their most common thread has China buying 5-8 MMT, although there are several versions of this rumor. One has Sinograin and COFCO, a state-owned trading company, as the buyers since both would pr...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet Sunday night opening with markets all slightly lower. Trading volume was also average or less both last night and today. The only difference during today’s session was that corn, wheat and soybean futures all slowly gravitated toward unchanged. Weekly export inspections wer...
Market Commentary
The extremely wild gyrations in U.S. equity markets are a good indication that no one knows where the U.S./China trade dispute is headed as well as a sign that it is the rest of the economy that overshadows agricultural concerns. It has been nearly a week since the Trump/Xi dinner in Argentina,...
Market Commentary
The arrest in Vancouver, Canada of Meng Wanzhou, a high-ranking executive of giant Chinese cellular technology company Huawei, and her pending extradition to the U.S. on charges of violating Iranian sanctions pose a potential roadblock for U.S.-China trade negotiations. Huawei has close ties to...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government will be closed 5 December to honor the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States. Release of the government’ s various reports for the remainder of the week will be delayed by one business day as a result. Whatever excitement was created by last we...
Market Commentary
The markets expected an explosive Sunday night market following the great news about the Saturday meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi that has led to a 90-day truce on implementing new tariffs and also promised significant commodity purchases by China. Markets instead took a much more measu...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were all slightly higher overnight, led by 5-6 cent gains in soybeans. Markets opened stronger than that this morning and stayed that way throughout the session. There was optimism around the markets that the Saturday evening meeting in Argentina between the U.S. and China wil...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mostly lower overnight, although not greatly so considering the general strength across the board yesterday. The day session was dominated by whichever way the China trade winds seemed to be blowing. There were optimistic tweets from President Trump that a deal with Ch...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s tough-talking rhetoric from President Trump, in which he said he planned to go ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports, was apparently seen as posturing ahead of his Friday meeting with President Xi because it seemed to have no effect on overnight futures markets trad...
Market Commentary
Markets opened Sunday evening with wheat 3-4 cents higher, corn up a penny and soybeans a penny lower. Overnight volume was much better than last week. Markets then opened this morning with wheat up 5-6 cents, corn slightly lower and soybeans down 6-7 cents. Soybean futures, however, ran into h...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Market Commentary
With the U.S. stock market tanking again and worries over the global economy building, investors continued yesterday’s flight from risk. Nearly all commodity markets were lower, led by a nearly $4.00 loss for crude oil, and the “safe haven” U.S. dollar was up sharply. Amid all...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night markets opened almost exactly steady and traded that way for the first two to three hours. They then finished that session with wheat down 3-4 cents, soybeans down 6-7 cents and corn steady to a half-cent lower. The very light volume overnight extended into today’s early...
Market Commentary
It was another quiet night session Thursday evening with little price change in corn, wheat and soybean futures, and that dull pattern of trade didn’t change today. U.S. weather is basically cool and dry for the foreseeable future. That should allow the remaining fall harvests to finish a...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade reversed some of what occurred on Monday. Soybeans were higher, while grain prices were lower. Traders were chewing over news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been discussing trade issues with high-level Chinese officials. Optimists see such contact as setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower overnight following yesterday’s negative response to the somewhat bullish U.S. corn and wheat WASDE numbers. Both the U.S. and world soybean ending supply estimates were clearly bearish. Today’s session, however, saw the soybean market turn hi...
Market Commentary
Upon detecting the sharp increases in WASDE estimates of world corn and wheat production/stocks, computer trading programs launched sell orders that quickly sent futures prices tumbling (also noted in today’s separate analysis). Wheat futures prices fell 8-10 cents, soybean prices dropped...
Market Commentary
The midterm election has come and gone with the results about as predicted – a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. This will give the chattering classes (and President Trump) plenty to talk about, but the reaction of financial markets today belies a doom-and-gloom outlook. Grain and...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Markets Happy Election is Over
Post-midterm election, pre-WASDE commodity trading lacked the excitement of last night’s newscasts. Grains were flat/lower while the livestock complex remained mixed with hogs gaining on cattle. Grain futrues should have gotten a boost from the U.S. dollar’s drop today but the antic...
Market Commentary
There was apparently a lack of incentive to either buy or sell grain and soy futures in the overnight session, and that carried over into the day session as well. Whether or not today’s midterm election had anything to do with the quiet low volume trade is problematic. The fact is that el...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday night session steady to just slightly higher, but wheat and corn closed this morning down a penny with soybeans 3-4 cents lower. Then during most of today’s session, corn was steady to slightly higher with wheat and soybeans lower. The following two major events...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures were up as much as 18-20 cents overnight on follow-through buying from yesterday’s strength. The market, however, cooled off just before the session’s close on news reports that yesterday’s talk of renewed conversations with China weren’t really true. Cor...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
In overnight futures trading, the grains were a bit firmer with soybeans hovering on either side of unchanged. The only news of consequence was a sharp, unexpected decline of the U.S. dollar versus sterling and the euro. The EU sent some sort of a finalization date in late November for Brexit,...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. Chicago wheat traded as much as a dime higher with corn and soybeans up 3-4 cents and 6-8 cents, respectively. Overnight volume was nothing special, and none of the buying surfaced in today’s session. In fact, those same futures all t...
Market Commentary
Markets firmed up overnight with wheat trading 5-6 cents higher following yesterday’s big sell-off. Wheat then took off sharply higher in the first hour of trading this morning. The strength was attributed to a report that U.S. wheat was among the cheapest offers to Egypt. Corn followed w...
Market Commentary
Winter wheat futures prices were still under pressure during the overnight session, much as they have been nearly all week. That weakness kept the other markets on the defensive, and both corn and soybeans were down slightly at the trading recess. Price weakness widened and deepened during the...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume seemed slightly higher than has been usual recently, but price action for grain and soy futures markets was muted nevertheless. Corn prices held around unchanged, and wheat was fractionally lower. Most of the action occurred in the soy complex as overnight selling pushe...
Market Commentary
The Sunday evening markets held the same trend they have had for several weeks now. Corn and soybean futures were steady to slightly higher with wheat lower. They then gained a little more strength at this morning’s opening, and that brought wheat slightly closer to unchanged. U.S. Corn B...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight following yesterday’s declines, and they slipped a bit more after the weekly export sales report was released 15 minutes before that session closed. Corn and soybean exports sales were much lower than expected, but wheat sales were at the high end of the expec...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
Market Commentary
What Monday giveth, Tuesday taketh away – a colloquial way of saying that for grain and soy markets, today was Turnaround Tuesday. After Monday’s stout price rally, the turnaround began during the overnight session. Soybeans and corn traded quietly and mostly lower, while wheat trad...
Market Commentary
Markets were very quiet in the Sunday night session and closed with fractional losses in extremely light volume. Their tone changed at this morning’s opening with soybeans trading 5-7 cents higher as the soy complex led today’s rally. Corn and wheat followed, and no one was certain...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat the leader. However, wheat softened after the export sales report that was released today (delayed by the 8 October holiday) showed those sales were a little lower than last week. Meanwhile, corn and soybean export sales were also slig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade volume was limited as the market awaited release of USDA’s October WASDE. Corn and wheat were a penny or so lower with soybeans down 4-5 cents, which all tracked with expectations of a bearish report. When the report came out at noon (EDT) today, the immediate conclusion w...
Market Commentary
Fear of the impact of higher interest rates sent the U.S. stock market and nearly every commodity market spinning lower today. And as traders contemplate tomorrow’s October WASDE, they are well aware of the bearish tone of the August and September WASDEs. The assumption is that the Octobe...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets slumbered through the overnight session with the October WASDE two days away. There was little movement in wheat and corn prices, and soybeans traded mostly lower in limited volume. Market watchers generally expect the WASDE to show a slight increase in the corn and soybea...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night session traded slightly higher until prices turned lower early this morning, led by wheat. Markets then opened the day session lower and turned weaker, probably for the following reasons: Rains will be heavy across much of the Corn Belt over the next three to four days, but th...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet trading session overnight. Corn, soybeans and wheat were all slightly higher with closing gains of a penny, 2 cents and 2-3 cents, respectively. The week ended with Washington (and the rest of the country) watching the Senate’s Supreme Court vote today. The monthly U.S. job...
Market Commentary
Low volume, narrow trading ranges and slightly firmer prices characterized trade in the overnight session for grains and the soy complex. The heavy rains due over the Plains and parts of the Corn Belt will restrict harvest progress with country movement already limited enough that corn premiums...
Market Commentary
This was an interesting start to October and the new quarter. Markets were quiet overnight with little price movement. However, that changed significantly at today’s openings with corn and soybeans turning sharply higher. Meanwhile, wheat futures continued to hover around unchanged. There...
Market Commentary
There was much for the markets to deal with today. It was the last day of September and the last day of the quarter; the drama over the Supreme Court nomination continues to play out in Washington; and there is still uncertainty over any possible shift to E15 from E10 that would increase ethano...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices turned a bit lower overnight as traders prepared for USDA’s stocks, small grains and winter wheat acreage reports to be released tomorrow at 12:00 noon (EDT). The spot soybean and corn contracts were down about 1.5 cents, and Chicago wheat was off about 4 cent...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures featured higher prices and modest volume. Soybeans were the leader with the November contract up about 7.5 cents. The grains were higher but more timidly so. Chicago wheat was up about 4 cents, and corn’s gains were limited to fractions. Trading vo...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade showed mixed results as the session recessed. Soybeans were higher by a few cents, but corn and wheat traded lower. The world oilseed sector is being supported by surging crude oil prices, which saw Brent crude trade as high as $82.55 after OPEC decided to leave its prod...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures were all lower through most of the Sunday evening session. However, wheat futures turned slightly higher early this morning and continued that trading pattern when the day session opened, closing with gains of up to 5.25 cents. Soybeans continue to bear the brun...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were lower overnight with corn trading fractionally higher. The big question today was whether yesterday’s strength in corn and soybean futures was anything more than a technical bounce off of recent lows or instead a reaction to bullish news. Corn maintained som...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.985/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.6 from yesterda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...
Market Commentary
One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Market Commentary
For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other related matters, grain and soy markets were rather quiet overnight and again today. Price movements were measured with trading volume average a...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
No China Trade Deal?
The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent. This sent grain and o...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent average. Basically, it was a tale of two markets today. The grains were stronger, but the soy complex was hammered again. Weekly export sales fo...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
Market Commentary
The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are being heard. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is quoted as saying he hopes that negotiations will be wrapped up when Vice-Premier Liu and his team...
Market Commentary
The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muster up a Turnaround Tuesday. However, it was not to be. Renewed fund selling of corn and soybean contracts kept prices under pressure througho...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Market Commentary
Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however, and regularly scheduled reports such as the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report will be released then. U.S trade negotiators a...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and wheat, which took the worst beating, regained several cents. However, the rally effort was not able to generate any momentum, and it had fade...
Market Commentary
For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading volume. However, that did not adequately prepare traders for what happened during the day session. Wheat and corn markets were pummeled by mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales report, although it was not expected to cause any excitement. The spring blizzard pummeling Nebraska, South Dakota and southern Minnesota w...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Market Commentary
The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone before the report’s release, largely due to better-than-expected winter wheat conditions and a 2 percent planting progress for corn. That...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn steady and wheat lower. Overnight volume was average. This week’s big news will be USDA’s April WASDE (supply and demand), set to...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real deal. President Trump commented that “we’re not there yet” on a final agreement, and he also said farmers will be very happy...
Market Commentary
It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and President Trump will end with an announcement of a trade deal. Such an announcement would likely also include word of a meeting between Trump and Ch...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Market Commentary
There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soybeans holding a couple of cents higher and wheat turning down a like amount. That left corn in the middle and about unchanged. The day sessio...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially in corn. Last Friday’s USDA numbers were simply bearish for the corn market and neutral to slightly positive for wheat and soybeans. M...
Market Commentary
The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s separate analysis for details), and corn got hammered as soon as they were released. More optimistic talk about a trade deal with China did...
Market Commentary
As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents higher, wheat was 6-7 cents lower, and corn was near unchanged. This same price pattern was maintained through the first half of the day sess...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
Market Commentary
It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...
Market Commentary
The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...
Market Commentary
It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...
Market Commentary
Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was nothing in the WASDE that could be considered even slightly bullish. It was the opposite as ending supplies for U.S. wheat and corn were hig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading recess. Yesterday’s changes in open interest showed increases of 22,141 contracts of corn, 16,889 soybean contracts and 7,789 contracts o...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day session found wheat taking an unusual bounce higher, but corn managed only a small gain. Soybeans slipped a couple of cents, and soy produc...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day session. The U.S. and China are reportedly close to reaching agreement on at least the initial phases of a trade deal, and there might be a sig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw grain and soy prices leak slightly lower following Monday’s big losses. Notable was corn open interest, which fell nearly 69,000 contracts. No doubt, some of this was due to liquidation ahead of the first delivery intentions on Thursday. The volume of corn contracts...
Market Commentary
More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...
Market Commentary
In a day full of new fundamental data, it was policy expectations that ruled the CBOT. Corn and soybean futures were mixed and largely lackluster in today’s trading with wheat posting solid gains. The markets remain supported/optimistic based on (apparently) improving trade relations betw...
Market Commentary
USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum opened its two-day run this morning. “Growing Locally, Selling Globally” is the 2019 theme. USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson presented the 2019 projections for grains, oilseeds, planted area and farm income. USDA foresees net farm...
Market Commentary
Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Measuring the effect of ASF on hog populations and feed consumption has become difficult if not impossible, but...
Market Commentary
Following the holiday, grain and soy markets began the overnight session just a bit firmer. That lasted until some selling pressure emerged in wheat, which led to prices being mixed at the trading recess with relatively good volume reported. However, it was not long after trading resumed that s...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were just slightly firmer overnight with wheat slightly lower following yesterday’s fund-related sell-off. Today then saw corn and soybeans trading slightly lower with wheat getting hit fairly hard most of the morning. Wheat is again in a very weak technical posit...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade was limited in volume and price movement. Wheat was slightly weaker, while corn and soybeans hung around Wednesday’s closes. News from talks in Beijing was sparse. President Trump apparently indicated he would agree to extend the negotiations for 60 days as long as...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Market Commentary
Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Today, though, there was a generally optimistic feeling about both that helped push the soybean and corn markets higher. The next round of trade...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...
Market Commentary
Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an example of his aggressive trade policies but did not mention its recent soybean purchases. He also asked Congress to approve the USMCA trade a...
Market Commentary
Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the February WASDE, are a month late has a great deal to do with it. The last WASDE before the government shutdown came out on 11 December, and mu...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets will want to see all the numbers in the 11 January USDA reports that are to be released this Friday before setting any new direction. U.S. equi...
Market Commentary
Agricultural and equity markets were all about China trade deal optimism today. President Trump was very busy tweeting very positive news about the situation, including China’s indication that it would soon buy another 5 MMT of soybeans as well as corn and wheat in future purchases. That...
Market Commentary
Please note: Late word from the White House meeting between the Chinese trade delegation and President Trump indicates that delegation leader Vice-Premier Liu He said that China would make (more) purchases of U.S. soybeans, presumably as part of the large amount of agricultural products China h...
Market Commentary
The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingly competitive. Some growth in export sales volumes was likely during that period, and traders have been anxious for the reports to resume. H...
Market Commentary
Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports chronologically each Tuesday and Friday until they are caught up. USDA/FAS is tentatively scheduled to release an export sales report on Thurs...
Market Commentary
Many were hopeful that last Friday’s actions to reopen the U.S. government plus some optimism that this week’s meeting with China will go well would have a positive impact on agricultural and equity markets, but just the opposite happened. Wheat, corn and soybean markets were lower...
Market Commentary
Markets didn’t do very much overnight in light volume. Corn and soybean futures were a penny higher with wheat down 1-2 cents. Markets then opened this morning with corn and soybeans steady and wheat 3-4 cents lower. Trading volume today was also very light. With no CFTC Commitment of Tra...
Market Commentary
It is always difficult to trade grain and soy futures based on politics and political rhetoric, and this truism is proving itself once again. Markets were lower yesterday on discouraging comments from various sources about the state of U.S.-Chinese negotiations. They were then buoyed early toda...
Market Commentary
It is now well into the second month of the partial government shutdown, and the blackout of the usual information from USDA continues. The only regular report still coming out is the weekly one from FGIS on the volumes of grain and soybeans inspected for export. This is made possible only by t...
Market Commentary
Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Market Commentary
For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weather. Even if one gives a bullish interpretation to all these factors, though, futures prices cannot go up forever. The soybean market discover...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet again overnight, although soybean futures showed some life early this morning and closed the night session a nickel higher with corn steady. Wheat finished down a penny and started today slightly weaker. The U.S. government is beginning the third week of the partial shutdown...
Market Commentary
Markets closed slightly higher in the Thursday night session on very light volume. They then opened firmer this morning with soybeans quickly jumping to gains of a dime or so. The U.S. government remains in a partial shutdown. To put that in perspective, 75 percent of it is funded and operation...
Market Commentary
Today’s CME closing grain market board was very unusual in the array of tiny price changes compared with that of yesterday. MGEX wheat had the biggest gains, finishing up 2.5-3 cents. Every other change was 1 cent or less except for a 1.25 cent gain for corn and Chicago wheat. While this...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Market Commentary
Markets finished the Sunday night session with corn and soybeans down 3 cents, while wheat markets were mostly steady. They opened almost exactly at those levels this morning, but corn and soybeans were trading near unchanged in the first half hour before turning lower again as the session proc...
Market Commentary
Markets ended the Thursday evening session with wheat down 6 cents, corn up a penny and soybeans steady. Volume was light and continued that way in today’s session, which was expected on the last full trading day before the Christmas holiday break. Markets will close at 1 pm (EST) Monday...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded modestly higher overnight following yesterday’s weakness, although trading volume was in a holiday mode. The market was pulled between improving South American weather forecasts and expectations of more Chinese sales announcements. Prices remained firm early i...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mixed overnight, having traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. As the early morning trading recess approached, wheat prices edged lower. However, soybean prices staying around the prior close in expectation that new large sales to China would be reported by US...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...
Market Commentary
Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...
Market Commentary
It is hard to keep track of the rumors flying around concerning Chinese plans to buy U.S. soybeans. Their most common thread has China buying 5-8 MMT, although there are several versions of this rumor. One has Sinograin and COFCO, a state-owned trading company, as the buyers since both would pr...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet Sunday night opening with markets all slightly lower. Trading volume was also average or less both last night and today. The only difference during today’s session was that corn, wheat and soybean futures all slowly gravitated toward unchanged. Weekly export inspections wer...
Market Commentary
The extremely wild gyrations in U.S. equity markets are a good indication that no one knows where the U.S./China trade dispute is headed as well as a sign that it is the rest of the economy that overshadows agricultural concerns. It has been nearly a week since the Trump/Xi dinner in Argentina,...
Market Commentary
The arrest in Vancouver, Canada of Meng Wanzhou, a high-ranking executive of giant Chinese cellular technology company Huawei, and her pending extradition to the U.S. on charges of violating Iranian sanctions pose a potential roadblock for U.S.-China trade negotiations. Huawei has close ties to...
Market Commentary
The U.S. government will be closed 5 December to honor the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States. Release of the government’ s various reports for the remainder of the week will be delayed by one business day as a result. Whatever excitement was created by last we...
Market Commentary
The markets expected an explosive Sunday night market following the great news about the Saturday meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi that has led to a 90-day truce on implementing new tariffs and also promised significant commodity purchases by China. Markets instead took a much more measu...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were all slightly higher overnight, led by 5-6 cent gains in soybeans. Markets opened stronger than that this morning and stayed that way throughout the session. There was optimism around the markets that the Saturday evening meeting in Argentina between the U.S. and China wil...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mostly lower overnight, although not greatly so considering the general strength across the board yesterday. The day session was dominated by whichever way the China trade winds seemed to be blowing. There were optimistic tweets from President Trump that a deal with Ch...
Ag Review - November 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s tough-talking rhetoric from President Trump, in which he said he planned to go ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports, was apparently seen as posturing ahead of his Friday meeting with President Xi because it seemed to have no effect on overnight futures markets trad...
Market Commentary
Markets opened Sunday evening with wheat 3-4 cents higher, corn up a penny and soybeans a penny lower. Overnight volume was much better than last week. Markets then opened this morning with wheat up 5-6 cents, corn slightly lower and soybeans down 6-7 cents. Soybean futures, however, ran into h...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Market Commentary
With the U.S. stock market tanking again and worries over the global economy building, investors continued yesterday’s flight from risk. Nearly all commodity markets were lower, led by a nearly $4.00 loss for crude oil, and the “safe haven” U.S. dollar was up sharply. Amid all...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night markets opened almost exactly steady and traded that way for the first two to three hours. They then finished that session with wheat down 3-4 cents, soybeans down 6-7 cents and corn steady to a half-cent lower. The very light volume overnight extended into today’s early...
Market Commentary
It was another quiet night session Thursday evening with little price change in corn, wheat and soybean futures, and that dull pattern of trade didn’t change today. U.S. weather is basically cool and dry for the foreseeable future. That should allow the remaining fall harvests to finish a...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade reversed some of what occurred on Monday. Soybeans were higher, while grain prices were lower. Traders were chewing over news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been discussing trade issues with high-level Chinese officials. Optimists see such contact as setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Today was the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S. The government was closed, but markets were open. The typical Monday USDA reports (e.g., weekly export inspections and weekly crop progress) will be released Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures were just slightly higher overnight with soybean futures l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower overnight following yesterday’s negative response to the somewhat bullish U.S. corn and wheat WASDE numbers. Both the U.S. and world soybean ending supply estimates were clearly bearish. Today’s session, however, saw the soybean market turn hi...
Market Commentary
Upon detecting the sharp increases in WASDE estimates of world corn and wheat production/stocks, computer trading programs launched sell orders that quickly sent futures prices tumbling (also noted in today’s separate analysis). Wheat futures prices fell 8-10 cents, soybean prices dropped...
Market Commentary
The midterm election has come and gone with the results about as predicted – a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. This will give the chattering classes (and President Trump) plenty to talk about, but the reaction of financial markets today belies a doom-and-gloom outlook. Grain and...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Markets Happy Election is Over
Post-midterm election, pre-WASDE commodity trading lacked the excitement of last night’s newscasts. Grains were flat/lower while the livestock complex remained mixed with hogs gaining on cattle. Grain futrues should have gotten a boost from the U.S. dollar’s drop today but the antic...
Market Commentary
There was apparently a lack of incentive to either buy or sell grain and soy futures in the overnight session, and that carried over into the day session as well. Whether or not today’s midterm election had anything to do with the quiet low volume trade is problematic. The fact is that el...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday night session steady to just slightly higher, but wheat and corn closed this morning down a penny with soybeans 3-4 cents lower. Then during most of today’s session, corn was steady to slightly higher with wheat and soybeans lower. The following two major events...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures were up as much as 18-20 cents overnight on follow-through buying from yesterday’s strength. The market, however, cooled off just before the session’s close on news reports that yesterday’s talk of renewed conversations with China weren’t really true. Cor...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
In overnight futures trading, the grains were a bit firmer with soybeans hovering on either side of unchanged. The only news of consequence was a sharp, unexpected decline of the U.S. dollar versus sterling and the euro. The EU sent some sort of a finalization date in late November for Brexit,...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. Chicago wheat traded as much as a dime higher with corn and soybeans up 3-4 cents and 6-8 cents, respectively. Overnight volume was nothing special, and none of the buying surfaced in today’s session. In fact, those same futures all t...
Market Commentary
Markets firmed up overnight with wheat trading 5-6 cents higher following yesterday’s big sell-off. Wheat then took off sharply higher in the first hour of trading this morning. The strength was attributed to a report that U.S. wheat was among the cheapest offers to Egypt. Corn followed w...
Market Commentary
Winter wheat futures prices were still under pressure during the overnight session, much as they have been nearly all week. That weakness kept the other markets on the defensive, and both corn and soybeans were down slightly at the trading recess. Price weakness widened and deepened during the...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume seemed slightly higher than has been usual recently, but price action for grain and soy futures markets was muted nevertheless. Corn prices held around unchanged, and wheat was fractionally lower. Most of the action occurred in the soy complex as overnight selling pushe...
Market Commentary
The Sunday evening markets held the same trend they have had for several weeks now. Corn and soybean futures were steady to slightly higher with wheat lower. They then gained a little more strength at this morning’s opening, and that brought wheat slightly closer to unchanged. U.S. Corn B...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets finished with slight losses in corn and wheat but minor gains in soybeans on very light trading volume. Today’s session saw wheat make some 4-5 cent gains early with corn and soybeans lower. There was a report that President Trump and President Jinping will try to meet j...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight following yesterday’s declines, and they slipped a bit more after the weekly export sales report was released 15 minutes before that session closed. Corn and soybean exports sales were much lower than expected, but wheat sales were at the high end of the expec...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading and again during the day session can best be described as dull. Volume was low, and price movement was subdued. The corn market managed to trade a 3-cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before the December contract settled down a penny with most de...
Market Commentary
What Monday giveth, Tuesday taketh away – a colloquial way of saying that for grain and soy markets, today was Turnaround Tuesday. After Monday’s stout price rally, the turnaround began during the overnight session. Soybeans and corn traded quietly and mostly lower, while wheat trad...
Market Commentary
Markets were very quiet in the Sunday night session and closed with fractional losses in extremely light volume. Their tone changed at this morning’s opening with soybeans trading 5-7 cents higher as the soy complex led today’s rally. Corn and wheat followed, and no one was certain...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat the leader. However, wheat softened after the export sales report that was released today (delayed by the 8 October holiday) showed those sales were a little lower than last week. Meanwhile, corn and soybean export sales were also slig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade volume was limited as the market awaited release of USDA’s October WASDE. Corn and wheat were a penny or so lower with soybeans down 4-5 cents, which all tracked with expectations of a bearish report. When the report came out at noon (EDT) today, the immediate conclusion w...
Market Commentary
Fear of the impact of higher interest rates sent the U.S. stock market and nearly every commodity market spinning lower today. And as traders contemplate tomorrow’s October WASDE, they are well aware of the bearish tone of the August and September WASDEs. The assumption is that the Octobe...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets slumbered through the overnight session with the October WASDE two days away. There was little movement in wheat and corn prices, and soybeans traded mostly lower in limited volume. Market watchers generally expect the WASDE to show a slight increase in the corn and soybea...
Market Commentary
The Sunday night session traded slightly higher until prices turned lower early this morning, led by wheat. Markets then opened the day session lower and turned weaker, probably for the following reasons: Rains will be heavy across much of the Corn Belt over the next three to four days, but th...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet trading session overnight. Corn, soybeans and wheat were all slightly higher with closing gains of a penny, 2 cents and 2-3 cents, respectively. The week ended with Washington (and the rest of the country) watching the Senate’s Supreme Court vote today. The monthly U.S. job...
Market Commentary
Low volume, narrow trading ranges and slightly firmer prices characterized trade in the overnight session for grains and the soy complex. The heavy rains due over the Plains and parts of the Corn Belt will restrict harvest progress with country movement already limited enough that corn premiums...
Market Commentary
This was an interesting start to October and the new quarter. Markets were quiet overnight with little price movement. However, that changed significantly at today’s openings with corn and soybeans turning sharply higher. Meanwhile, wheat futures continued to hover around unchanged. There...
Market Commentary
There was much for the markets to deal with today. It was the last day of September and the last day of the quarter; the drama over the Supreme Court nomination continues to play out in Washington; and there is still uncertainty over any possible shift to E15 from E10 that would increase ethano...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices turned a bit lower overnight as traders prepared for USDA’s stocks, small grains and winter wheat acreage reports to be released tomorrow at 12:00 noon (EDT). The spot soybean and corn contracts were down about 1.5 cents, and Chicago wheat was off about 4 cent...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures featured higher prices and modest volume. Soybeans were the leader with the November contract up about 7.5 cents. The grains were higher but more timidly so. Chicago wheat was up about 4 cents, and corn’s gains were limited to fractions. Trading vo...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade showed mixed results as the session recessed. Soybeans were higher by a few cents, but corn and wheat traded lower. The world oilseed sector is being supported by surging crude oil prices, which saw Brent crude trade as high as $82.55 after OPEC decided to leave its prod...
Market Commentary
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures were all lower through most of the Sunday evening session. However, wheat futures turned slightly higher early this morning and continued that trading pattern when the day session opened, closing with gains of up to 5.25 cents. Soybeans continue to bear the brun...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean markets were lower overnight with corn trading fractionally higher. The big question today was whether yesterday’s strength in corn and soybean futures was anything more than a technical bounce off of recent lows or instead a reaction to bullish news. Corn maintained som...
Market Commentary
The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assumed that the two countries will impose tariffs on all the imports from each other. The chances that this bilateral trade war will last well i...
Market Commentary
It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Trump-imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The back-and-forth tariffs are not really causing further damage to major agricultural...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat couldn’t hold any gains. However, Minneapolis HRS futures were higher all day, which might have been because of the troubles with Russia&...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded much the same way with corn and soybean futures markets mostly steady and wheat higher. Volume was less than average, which has been the case...
Market Commentary
Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds into sellers despite some solid end user buying. Reports from farm country are that farmer sales are almost completely gone after the CBOT&rs...