Recent Softs Analysis
A Future for Onion Futures?
Key Takeaways: A student group from the University of Chicago is protesting to bring back onion futures trading. Trading in onion futures was banned in 1958 following a spectacular bout of market manipulation that resulted in a corner of the physical market. The ban on onion futures led t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Alberta Votes Overwhelmingly to Stay with Canada
Yesterday, Alberta held a referendum on whether to begin the process toward independence from Canada. With more than one million votes counted as of early Tuesday morning, around 77 percent supported remaining in Canada, and 23 percent voted to start the process of separation, according to unof...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets in the latest CFTC report, with funds selling a net 3,000 contracts through last Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing their combined net-long position to 1.021 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, pos...
USDA and Sugar: An Arranged Marriage
USDA and sugar have been married since 1934. With such an old marriage, there are all manner of promises, obligations and compromises. There are disagreements and arguments, and occasional calls for divorce, but they lack real conviction. We outsiders find it all so difficult to understand. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Why the Black Sea Dominates the Global Sunflower Oil Market
Key Takeaways: Sunflower oil is a major global vegetable oil despite its relatively limited presence in the United States, with sunflowerseed containing substantially more oil than soybeans. Russia and Ukraine sit at the center of the global sunflower oil market, together accounting for 57 per...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Failing to Learn from History, Ghana Locks Down Cocoa Acres
Key Takeaways: Ghana’s new law classifies all cocoa plantations as “protected farms,” which carries significant implications for farmers. Chief among these implications is the inability to switch area under cocoa to other crops, even when economic or biological conditio...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Sugarcane: The World’s Most Abundant Crop but Often Overlooked
Key Takeaways: Sugarcane is the world’s largest crop by total production volume, surpassing major commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, and supplies roughly 80 percent of global sugar production. Sugarcane’s perennial growth cycle allows farmers to harvest multiple crops f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
The Cotton Demand Impacts of Military Conflict
Key Takeaways: Global and U.S. cotton demand has struggled since the post-COVID-19 pandemic surge, which has left cotton prices drifting lower in the U.S. The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with their impact on global energy markets, could boost cotton demand...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
The Great American Cotton Plan: Promise and Practicality
With considerable fanfare—and few specifics—USDA last week announced its Great American Cotton Plan for 2026-2031. Secretary Brooke Rollins and industry leaders described the initiative as a comprehensive strategy to address the persistent challenges facing U.S. cotton production, d...
A Future for Onion Futures?
Key Takeaways: A student group from the University of Chicago is protesting to bring back onion futures trading. Trading in onion futures was banned in 1958 following a spectacular bout of market manipulation that resulted in a corner of the physical market. The ban on onion futures led t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Alberta Votes Overwhelmingly to Stay with Canada
Yesterday, Alberta held a referendum on whether to begin the process toward independence from Canada. With more than one million votes counted as of early Tuesday morning, around 77 percent supported remaining in Canada, and 23 percent voted to start the process of separation, according to unof...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets in the latest CFTC report, with funds selling a net 3,000 contracts through last Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing their combined net-long position to 1.021 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, pos...
USDA and Sugar: An Arranged Marriage
USDA and sugar have been married since 1934. With such an old marriage, there are all manner of promises, obligations and compromises. There are disagreements and arguments, and occasional calls for divorce, but they lack real conviction. We outsiders find it all so difficult to understand. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Why the Black Sea Dominates the Global Sunflower Oil Market
Key Takeaways: Sunflower oil is a major global vegetable oil despite its relatively limited presence in the United States, with sunflowerseed containing substantially more oil than soybeans. Russia and Ukraine sit at the center of the global sunflower oil market, together accounting for 57 per...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Failing to Learn from History, Ghana Locks Down Cocoa Acres
Key Takeaways: Ghana’s new law classifies all cocoa plantations as “protected farms,” which carries significant implications for farmers. Chief among these implications is the inability to switch area under cocoa to other crops, even when economic or biological conditio...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Sugarcane: The World’s Most Abundant Crop but Often Overlooked
Key Takeaways: Sugarcane is the world’s largest crop by total production volume, surpassing major commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, and supplies roughly 80 percent of global sugar production. Sugarcane’s perennial growth cycle allows farmers to harvest multiple crops f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
The Cotton Demand Impacts of Military Conflict
Key Takeaways: Global and U.S. cotton demand has struggled since the post-COVID-19 pandemic surge, which has left cotton prices drifting lower in the U.S. The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with their impact on global energy markets, could boost cotton demand...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
The Great American Cotton Plan: Promise and Practicality
With considerable fanfare—and few specifics—USDA last week announced its Great American Cotton Plan for 2026-2031. Secretary Brooke Rollins and industry leaders described the initiative as a comprehensive strategy to address the persistent challenges facing U.S. cotton production, d...