Oilseed Highlights
The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusing on the South American supply outlooks. The dry weather in Argentina has been largely offset by favorable conditions in Brazil, leaving the...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in recent months. The exchange rate has shifted from approximately 800 ARS/USD to 1,030 ARS/USD, while high dollar inflation has significantly incr...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat High temperatures in recent days have slightly accelerated crop maturity and the harvest in Argentina. Weekly harvest progress reached 12 percent, with 30 percent of the area harvested. Yields show significant variability. In some cases, yields are improving as harvesters move into t...
Oilseed Highlights
The Market Soybean futures have largely been waiting for the January WASDE report, which USDA will publish on today, with traders specifically focusing on the South American supply outlooks. The dry weather in Argentina has been largely offset by favorable conditions in Brazil, leaving the...
Market Commentary: Big Nothingburger
It was a good thing that futures markets closed early today given that there were very few inputs to guide movements. The U.S. government was closed in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s memorial, so reports like weekly Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow. Wall Street and the...
Market Commentary: Comfortable, With Jitters
There was generally low volume in grains today as traders await USDA’s important reports on Friday. There is no reason to spend more money on fees or commissions after spending several days aligning with the perceived outcomes. At the same time, market noise does not completely stop and there i...
Market Commentary: No Major Swings on More Positioning Ahead of WASDE
Corn opened lower but managed a quarter penny higher close, and hogs tried to follow cattle higher at the open but ended lower for a third session in a row, but the rest of the pack ended the day where it started with equally small changes.Fundamentals are helping corn, wheat and cattle, and so...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Precipitation Forecasts Fall
The CBOT tried – and mostly succeeded – to reverse Friday’s selloff with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all turning higher to start the first full trading week of 2025. The fundamental catalysts for the day’s strength were the slide in the U.S. dollar, thanks to more trade-friendly (or at lea...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
2025 Outlook Last year was extremely challenging for Argentine agriculture, with sharp declines in commodity prices exacerbating the situation in recent months. The exchange rate has shifted from approximately 800 ARS/USD to 1,030 ARS/USD, while high dollar inflation has significantly incr...
Market Commentary: New Year, Same Trend - Corn and Beans Higher, Wheat Not
Corn and soybeans opened lower but quickly shifted back to positive territory. All three wheats were lower in overnight trading and pretty much traded lower all during the day session. There was good volume trading in HRW, cattle and feeders. March feeder cattle hit a new contract high. Lean ho...
Market Commentary: Year End Rally in Corn and Beans
The day’s trading started out hum and glum. Corn and soybean contracts moved modestly like their overnight closes and stayed marginal for most of the day. Soyoil was continuing its recent mostly negative run. Wheat never went anywhere important, high or low. Then there was a breakout late...
Export Sales Bouy Grains; Argy Weather, Slow Exports Sink Soybeans
Grain markets were quiet in Friday’s overnight trade despite the bullish technical days they scored on Thursday. The Export Sales report – as one of the few fundamental updates available for the day – was influential in determining the grain markets’ direction for the day. That meant support fo...
Argentine Weather Emboldens CBOT Bulls
The CBOT found its way to higher ground on Thursday after an old-school hard opening with no overnight session to guide the market. Argentina’s weather is starting to become more impactful for grain futures as dryness persists into the mid-January forecast, which could disrupt early corn and so...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat High temperatures in recent days have slightly accelerated crop maturity and the harvest in Argentina. Weekly harvest progress reached 12 percent, with 30 percent of the area harvested. Yields show significant variability. In some cases, yields are improving as harvesters move into t...