World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

livestock

Total versus Change in Pork Consumption

China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows

Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS.  Only...

Sino-Ag Developments

EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...

Sino-Ag Update

EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...

soy-oilseeds

Wasde Soybeans

WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...

feed-grains

Wasde Corn

WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...

wheat

Wasde Wheat

WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...

Sino-Ag Roundup 2

Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen

Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...

Sino-Ag Roundup

Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs

News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...

China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced

The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024

WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn - Nov 2024

WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...

wheat

WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024

WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...

soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans

Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand

Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report

A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades

The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina Economic/Policy Update  Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges

Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week.  Where there...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally

Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...

livestock

Total versus Change in Pork Consumption

China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows

Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS.  Only...

Sino-Ag Developments

EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...

Sino-Ag Update

EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...

soy-oilseeds

Wasde Soybeans

WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...

feed-grains

Wasde Corn

WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...

wheat

Wasde Wheat

WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...

Sino-Ag Roundup 2

Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen

Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...

Sino-Ag Roundup

Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs

News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...

China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced

The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024

WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn - Nov 2024

WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...

wheat

WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024

WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...

soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans

Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand

Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report

A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades

The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina Economic/Policy Update  Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges

Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week.  Where there...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally

Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...

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