Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Market Movers Galore Move Markets
A tariff truce, export inspections, WASDE and crop progress. Monday was action packed and the much-anticipated USDA May WASDE report did not disappoint. In general, it was mixed for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat. In fact, all three major wheat contracts registered new contra...
U.S. and China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days and Continue Negotiating
After weeks of Chinese denials that they were engaged in talks with the U.S on tariffs, the governments of the United States and the People’s Republic of China issued a joint statement this morning saying that they would rescind reciprocal tariffs for the coming 90 days. It included: ...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with priority given to soybeans while farmers wait for grain moisture levels to drop in the central and southern parts o...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session it had been joined by old crop corn. New crop corn joined all three wheats and soybeans with a higher close. Hogs opened lower but then reve...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were essentially unchanged. The board crush margin (that is, the margin implied by CBOT soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures) is up 6.5 percent f...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Market Movers Galore Move Markets
A tariff truce, export inspections, WASDE and crop progress. Monday was action packed and the much-anticipated USDA May WASDE report did not disappoint. In general, it was mixed for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat. In fact, all three major wheat contracts registered new contra...
U.S. and China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days and Continue Negotiating
After weeks of Chinese denials that they were engaged in talks with the U.S on tariffs, the governments of the United States and the People’s Republic of China issued a joint statement this morning saying that they would rescind reciprocal tariffs for the coming 90 days. It included: ...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with priority given to soybeans while farmers wait for grain moisture levels to drop in the central and southern parts o...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session it had been joined by old crop corn. New crop corn joined all three wheats and soybeans with a higher close. Hogs opened lower but then reve...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were essentially unchanged. The board crush margin (that is, the margin implied by CBOT soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures) is up 6.5 percent f...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...