China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
WASDE Corn - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
China Market Analysis
Corn/Feed USDA reports that Chinese domestic production of corn and wheat exceeds demand, but that barley is in a supply deficit and must be imported. China’s overall feed production is growing faster than its meat and egg output. China’s corn crop has been damaged by wetness, and i...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is unchanged for exports and slightly higher ending stocks to 931 million bushels - 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel. The global outlook fo...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. As a result, the season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound. Global 2025/26 soybean endin...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dim Sums report that Chinese propaganda’s focus on soybean self-sufficiency has faded as Brazil has become the top foreign supplier. In short, dependence on a main rival for a staple crop was the problem. China’s self-sufficiency in soybeans in 2025 was 16.2 percent, versus...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are increased 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting sales and shipments to date. With no supply changes and use increasing, corn ending stocks are down 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion...
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
China Market Analysis
No. 1 Central Document China has released its No. 1 document for 2026, which calls for strengthening the country’s agriculture sector and rural linkages, while enriching rural areas as top priorities. The plan envisions up to 500 special demonstration zones deploying technology and deep r...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
WASDE Corn - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
China Market Analysis
Corn/Feed USDA reports that Chinese domestic production of corn and wheat exceeds demand, but that barley is in a supply deficit and must be imported. China’s overall feed production is growing faster than its meat and egg output. China’s corn crop has been damaged by wetness, and i...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is unchanged for exports and slightly higher ending stocks to 931 million bushels - 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel. The global outlook fo...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. As a result, the season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound. Global 2025/26 soybean endin...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dim Sums report that Chinese propaganda’s focus on soybean self-sufficiency has faded as Brazil has become the top foreign supplier. In short, dependence on a main rival for a staple crop was the problem. China’s self-sufficiency in soybeans in 2025 was 16.2 percent, versus...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are increased 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting sales and shipments to date. With no supply changes and use increasing, corn ending stocks are down 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion...
Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing
Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...
China Market Analysis
No. 1 Central Document China has released its No. 1 document for 2026, which calls for strengthening the country’s agriculture sector and rural linkages, while enriching rural areas as top priorities. The plan envisions up to 500 special demonstration zones deploying technology and deep r...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...