EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs
The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the application of tariffs against major trading partners. These tariffs have, as expected, been met with retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and China. Fur...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian crop agency CONAB yesterday. Brazil's soybean crop, which farmers are harvesting now, is expected to total 167.37 MMT, about 1.3 M...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China and the EU’s reactions to President Trump’s new tariffs. Both China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs that included additi...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs
The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the application of tariffs against major trading partners. These tariffs have, as expected, been met with retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and China. Fur...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...